Suchan Says: Cooling Midweek Relief and Storm Chances

July 22, 2014 - Leave a Response

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The advertised hottest day of the year verified Tuesday with most areas in the mid 90s to low 100s across the area.  Heat index values pushed all the way to 107 to 114 when you factor in the humidity too.

But once again, we’re tracking cooler temperatures ready to move back in limiting us to just one intense day of heat.  Just remarkable in what has been a cool year for us.  For some perspective, here’s a comparison to 2012 which was off the charts with intensely hot days!

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As a cold front approaches the area tonight, we’ll continue with an isolated 20% chance of isolated thunderstorm.  It appears the best chance will be in our eastern half of the area into central Missouri for an isolated storm.  Overall, I’m just not impressed for much activity across the region.

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Wednesday starts with a small chance of a early morning shower or storm then turns mostly to partly sunny and cooler with much lower humidity working in.  Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s across the area.

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Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

 

Suchan Says: Blistering Hot Day then More Cool Relief?!

July 21, 2014 - Leave a Response
Heat Advisory for the entire area Tuesday

Heat Advisory for the entire area Tuesday

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the year by a mile and truly one of those intense days of heat that we come to expect a handful of times in the Midwest in the middle of summer.  Make sure you take frequent breaks, stay hydrated, check on those without A/C and don’t forget about fresh water for outdoor pets.

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The good news if you’re not a fan of these intensely hot days, we’ll be cooling down already by the time we hit Wednesday as yet another cold front makes a nice push across the area Tuesday night.  So ahead of the cold front, mostly to partly sunny and brutally hot.  By the evening, a few showers or thunderstorms are possible as the cold front sags into the region starting up north and working south across the KC metro Tuesday night.

By Wednesday afternoon, the front will be to our south with the best chance for a shower or storm in the southern half of the region.  Drier air will move in during the day creating mostly to partly sunny skies with highs only reaching the upper 80s.  Yes seasonably hot but after Tuesday’s heat, it will actually feel quite refreshing !!

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

Kosek Kalls It: I Got Your Back

July 20, 2014 - One Response

How cool is this?!  Or should I say, hot.   The hottest weather of the year-to-date is arriving for us Monday and Tuesday.   Heat indexes have already topped out in excess of 100 over parts of Kansas, and the same will be said for Mizzou over the next couple of days.  

 

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However, there is a way to beat the heat…..at least temporarily.  Surprise your loved one with an exciting adventure… a flight in an open-cockpit WW II Warbird! Gift certificates are available for rides in either a PT-13 Stearman or PT-19 Fairchild. The Commemorative Air Force is a non-profit flying museum dedicated to honoring our nation’s past by educating future generations. Please call 913 206-8027 to book a flight, or to arrange for a gift certificate.   So, If you’re not afraid of heights and want to feel the hot air blowing through your hair, check these guys out.  They’re available on select dates through Nov 16th.   Now, I don’t know about you, but I think I’d rather fly through the heat, instead of the November chill.   Just saying.   

 

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Hallie’s Hints: Goodbye 70s… Hello 80s!

July 19, 2014 - Leave a Response

The weather this week has been beautiful! Hopefully those air conditioners enjoyed the break because summer is far from being over. Temperatures today will reach into the mid 80s under mostly sunny skies.

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Today will be the first day since the 13th of July that we’ve seen high temperatures in the 80s. This is indeed very rare for us. The National Weather Service did a bit of digging and found only 5 additional instances that we’ve had 5 or more consecutive days of high temperatures below 80° in July.

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As the pattern shifts, more heat and humidity will be heading our way. Sunday will be our last day in the 80s… before 90 degree heat and humidity return for the work week.

 

Have a GREAT Saturday and enjoy the beautiful weather!

 

Meteorologist Hallie Shulman
Weekend Morning Meteorologist
Hallie.Shulman@KCTV5.com

Suchan Says: Summer Heat Set to Return

July 17, 2014 - Leave a Response

Our record cool stretch of weather this week is nearing completion with an awesome Friday on the way followed by a pretty nice Saturday too although it will be noticeably warmer.

Very Cool July So Far...

Very Cool July So Far…

Friday will feature a good scattering of clouds mixed with sunshine.  There’s just a slight chance at a sprinkle in northern Missouri in the afternoon, otherwise I’m not impressed with rain chances.  Temperatures start in the upper 50s to near 60 again with a nice warm up into the upper 70s to near 80 with low humidity again!

Saturday starts refreshingly cool in the lower 60s.  A few spots may actually hit the upper 50s one last time.  The afternoon will then warm into the lower to mid 80s under mostly sunny skies.

Sunday is the day where you should notice a bit more heat in the afternoon as temperatures crank up into the upper 80s.  Although I must say, this is still a bargain considering what we could see with extreme summer heat!

Next week looks like a solid dose of 90s with heat index values routinely above 100.  A few storms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday in particular as a weak front drops across the area.

Here’s a look at the pattern shift ahead….

This Week's Pattern

This Week’s Pattern

Next Week's Pattern...

Next Week’s Pattern…

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

Suchan Says: Big Pattern Shift Ahead

July 16, 2014 - Leave a Response

A remarkable pattern change into autumn-like conditions in the middle of July has brought numerous record cool temperatures to the area with pleasantly mild to warm afternoons followed by cool, crisp overnights!  Once again, the pattern is set to shift back toward summer heat with just a few more days of unseasonably cool conditions left from the recent stretch.

Thursday will bring a mix of clouds and sun with only a slight chance at a sprinkle or lone shower in far southern sections of the area.  Highs again only in the mid to upper 70s after starting the day in the 50s.

Friday will also be a partly cloudy day with a slight chance at a pop up shower near Kirksville, MO into Iowa.  Otherwise the area will enjoy a dry day with highs in the upper 70s after another morning in the 50s.

Saturday brings mostly sunny skies with one last cool morning in the lower 60s followed by low to mid 80s in the afternoon.  Sunday will crank it up into the upper 80s to possibly 90 in a few spots in western sections.

Pattern this week... image from GFS model

Pattern this week… image from GFS model

Pattern next week... image from GFS model

Pattern next week… image from GFS model

Highs for the next five days

Highs for the next five days

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

Suchan Says: More Records Fall… Rain Ahead ??

July 15, 2014 - Leave a Response

Tuesday morning brought a record “cool” low of 54 to Kansas City.  That was followed by the afternoon where we tied our record “cool” high temperature of 74 set in 1989.  Tonight… we’re on record watch again as our forecast low Wednesday morning is 53 and the record to beat is 57 from 1985.  That shouldn’t be too difficult a record to break!

Back to back to back record cool temperatures in the middle of July !

Back to back to back record cool temperatures in the middle of July !

Wednesday brings a mostly to becoming partly sunny sky through the day as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 70s.  A truly delightful day with low humidity and just a light breeze.  By Wednesday night, I’ll be watching an area of cloudiness and rain to our west / southwest to see if it can make it into our viewing area.  “Most” models right now suggest a minor brush of a shower or two for southern sections with a partly cloudy Thursday.  One of model however hits the area with considerable cloudiness and a solid rain chance for about half of the area.  Right now, our lean is toward a 30% chance for areas to the south to pick up a few rain showers but we’ll watch for any trends from all models and how they handle this anticipated region of rain.

Wednesday forecast clouds / radar... bulk of cloudiness and rain off to the west from our area

Wednesday forecast clouds / radar… bulk of cloudiness and rain off to the west from our area

Thursday forecast clouds / radar... some patchy clouds and 30% chance of showers to the south (as of right now)

Thursday forecast clouds / radar… some patchy clouds and 30% chance of showers to the south (as of right now)

To appreciate the difference in two of our models, here’s a comparison between the NAM and the GFS.  It’s worth noting, the GFS has additional support from other models while the NAM at the moment is an outlying solution but worth noting.

NAM generating a bullseye of strong lift and deep moisture for large area of rain that brushes across our area

NAM generating a bullseye of strong lift and deep moisture for large area of rain that brushes across our area

GFS much more subdued in zone of lift and quality of moisture as dry air fends off advancing rain

GFS much more subdued in zone of lift and quality of moisture as dry air fends off advancing rain

Finally, the pattern this week which has brought a remarkable push of autumn-like air into the region in the middle of July will shift back into a more classic summer mode by later this weekend and through all of next week.  The good news however, I do not foresee record setting “hot” temperatures.  Simply a return to something a bit more typical for our area this time of the year.

This week's cool pattern

This week’s cool pattern

Next week's more typical hot pattern

Next week’s more typical hot pattern

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

 

Kosek Kalls It: Road Trip To Yellowknife

July 15, 2014 - One Response

Ever been to Yellowknife, Canada?  Me neither, but what a roadie it would be this week as a lot of heat continues to be funneled northward.   Typically, there are 4 to 5 troughs of low pressure across the northern hemisphere at any one time, and the trough that is digging into the Upper Midwest today is quite impressive, and that’s an understatement.  Check out temperatures below.  

 

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It’s actually warmer in Yellowknife & (Winston)Churchill than Minneapolis, Chicago and Kansas City.  Wow!    A brisk northwest flow of air will stay with for the remainder of the week.   

 

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The combination of clear nighttime skies, low humidity, and little wind will result in yet another record low temperature come Wednesday morning.   The record low at KCI is 57 from 1985; in St Joe, it’s 54 from 1970.   Some areas will even bottom out in the upper 40s away from the city.   

 

However, the weather, as always, will be changing.   This same northwest to southeast flow of chilly will push a compact storm, currently along the Idaho/Montana line into our area.  It’s the clouds associated with this feature that will likely keep us away from another record low temperature Thursday morning.   On the flip side, it will also keep temps down during the daylight hours Thursday with a chance of rain.    

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You can keep up to date on this next storm and many other meteorological variables by watching KCTV5 News, checking out the web at kctv5.com/weather or follow me on twitter:  @jimkosek and facebook:  Jim Kosek Weather

 

Enjoy!

Kosek Kalls It: Welcome To International Falls!

July 14, 2014 - Leave a Response

Forget the calendar when it comes to weather.  You best look for the origin of the latest air mass to find out what’s cookin’.   Case in point:  our current set-up.   The jet stream, which is basically the bus driver for storms across the northern hemisphere is taking the scenic route through North America.  

 

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So while, some locales across the Yukon and Northwest Territories of Canada are basking in heat as hot air is transported north with the jet stream, there are those that are wondering what is going on farther east.   Morning low temperatures in our area will bottom out in the low 50s, something that is more typical of International Falls, MN and some southern Canadian Plains areas.   

 

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Matter of fact, morning low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will surpass the bar that was set back in 1990 and 1985, respectively.   Some countryside locales will even dip into the 40s!   The all-time record low temperature for the entire month of July is 51, back in 1997 on the 5th of the month.   You can amaze your family and friends with that tidbit!

In time, the jet stream will return northward, and milder, more humid weather will again enter the picture.  However, that won’t be until this weekend.  Enjoy!

Amble’s Ramble

July 14, 2014 - Leave a Response

Record setting cold air is heading our way …and soon! Enjoy a nice break from typical July heat this week as northwest winds usher in a delightful mass of Canadian air. Here’s what you can expect. Cool or even crisp mornings, mild afternoons with super low humidity levels. This is the kind of air that’s just unheard of this time of year. In fact it will feel more like the first week of October over the coming days.

This all started from the Super Typhoon ( Neoguri ) which scooted bast Okinawa, Japan early last week. The storm created a buckle in the jet stream which propagated east to the U.S. forcing cool air conditioned over continental areas of Canada to work south into the Midwest. How or why this is happening may or may not be important to you but the possible record cool mornings will allow you to give your air conditioner a breather and may force a few people to actually turn on the furnace — Is it REALLY July? YES!

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