Kosek Kalls It: A Calmer Canada

September 15, 2014 - Leave a Response

Our latest cold front is already past us, as noted by the skinny band of showers south of the metro.

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The air in its wake does stroll out of Canada.  However, it won’t be a repeat to what just went down this past weekend.  You see, the air is tempered a bit by Gulf of Alaska waters.   So, instead of an air mass that originated over northern Alaska and the Northwest Territories of Canada waltzing on in, this air has origins over southern Alaska and the waters just south of there.  You can see on the map below that most temps to our north are in the 50s/60s instead of 30s/40s like at the end of last week.

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so, no record cold tonight (40 from 1934 at KCI is the record), but it’s still chilly enough to leave the windows closed.

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Enjoy!

Twitter = @jimkosek

Facebook = Jim Kosek Weather

Amble’s Ramble

September 15, 2014 - Leave a Response

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Rain chances will taper off this afternoon as the winds turns to the north setting up another very cool overnight. After reaching a brief high of 70 degrees, north winds will usher in a mass of much cooler air tonight sending your out the door temperature Tuesday morning to 47. That’s cold! Don’t expect this shot of cool air to last long, maybe 36 hours or so. Warmer air will ride a southerly breeze to push afternoon temperatures back into the 80s by the end of the week.

Oh, by the way, A Hurricane ( Odile ) pronounced O – DEAL is currently slamming the Baja peninsula of Mexico. As it moves north the storm will weaken but will still dump heavy rains over the desert southwest hitting especially hard southern Arizona. The GFS model shows signs of storm fragments reaching Kansas City This Saturday. Don’t expect much more than scattered thundershowers when it arrives.

Kosek Kalls It: Trickle Down Effect

September 13, 2014 - Leave a Response

KCTV weather delayed tonight.  The culprit is Carolina thunderstorms.  More specifically, Columbia, South Carolina thunderstorms.   CBS obviously covers Saturday college football, so when storms were rolling into Columbia, it put the Bulldogs/Gamecocks game on hold; hence, putting the 10pm news on hold….at least until 10:46pm.

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Gotta love how weather has to have an impact on everything!  This is all part of the storm that dragged cold Canadian air, kicking and screaming, into our backyard and broke a 124 year-old low temperature record Saturday morning.   And, guess what?  There’s more cold air trickling down into the area through Sunday morning.   Soooooo………

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Shiver you shall, if you are running in the Plaza 10K.  Best of luck to you if you are.  Warm thoughts to all.

Twitter gurus can follow me @jimkosek.  If you prefer Facebook: Jim Kosek Weather

Hallie’s Hints: Record Cold Saturday!

September 13, 2014 - Leave a Response

We have every reason to complain this morning about the cold temperatures!  In fact, we shattered a record set back in the 1800s this morning!  The previous record low temperature for this date was 39° set back in 1890… today we fell to 38° at 6:32 AM.  WOWZA!!!

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It could be worse!  Here’s a picture that my dad sent me yesterday from Denver… yes my friends… that is snow.

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Good news ahead, with sunshine and a light southeasterly wind today, temperatures will be climbing into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon.  Don’t get me wrong, this is still well below average from where we should be.  Highs for the middle of September should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s… not the 60s!

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Thanks to the recent rain, fog has developed across a good portion of northern Missouri and northeast Kansas.  Here’s a look at the visibility.  This fog should not last long!

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Tonight, high pressure will slide east allowing winds to turn more to the south.  This will fetch warmer air by Sunday with mostly sunny skies, temperatures will be climbing into the lower to mid 70s Sunday afternoon.

Next rain chance arrives late Sunday and through the day Monday.

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Have a GREAT weekend and try to stay warm!

Meteorologist Hallie Shulman
Weekend Morning Meteorologist
Hallie.Shulman@KCTV5.com

Kosek Kalls It: Weird Times & Weather

September 12, 2014 - Leave a Response

The Royals haven’t gone to the playoffs in a million years. The Chiefs (hopefully) are going to play like the Joe Montana days.  And, now the weather flips to November.  Holy cow!

Hey, at least it didn’t snow!  Our latest Canadian (eh) cold front is past us.  Clouds are thinning out, but that’s not necessarily a good thing.  Unless you love it cold….and I mean real cold.

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Temps will dip to levels we haven’t seen at this time of the year in over 100 years.

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In fact, with the clouds exiting and the breeze trailing off under the cover of darkness, it feels like we should be out picking pumpkins and leaf peeping.  Here’s a look at computer guidance for 6am Saturday.

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Rightly so, there’s a frost advisory overnight.

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But, all in all, averages are the product of extremes.   Sure, this is cold side of average, but it will balance out.  That’s why you shouldn’t let the weather be a deterrent to getting out this weekend.   It’s KC, and there’s a lot happening.

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Stay warm, and enjoy!   And, if you dare, follow me on twitter:  @jimkosek.   Facebook:  Jim Kosek Weather

Kosek Kalls It: Throw Your Calendar In The Trash

September 10, 2014 - One Response

Tuesday’s heavy rain for northern Missouri is over.

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However, there is another storm headed our way.   It’s not a big deal in the H2O department.  But, it is a storm that has been associated with 5″ of snow in parts of Alberta, Canada.

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We’re not discussing snow around these parts, but the barn door is swinging wide open from Canada.   Once clouds exit stage east, temperatures will dip into the 30s and 40s by Saturday morning.   While it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that one or two c-c-cold countryside locales ends up with a little frost early Saturday, it certainly isn’t the rule of thumb.  The clouds would have to part company with us early Friday night, and the wind would have to become negligible for that to happen.   Regardless, it’s a very cold air mass headed our way as you can see below.

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The record at KCI Saturday morning is 39 from 1890.   It won’t be too far off that number.   Bottom line:  why use a calendar to tell us the Autumnal Equinox occurs at 9:29pm on Sept 22?   It’s far easier to predict the weather when you look at the origin of the air mass.   And, this air mass says it’s already Fall.

Stay warm, and follow me on twitter if you like:  @jimkosek

Facebook:  Jim Kosek Weather

 

Hallie’s Hints: Severe Weather Update Tuesday 3:00 PM

September 9, 2014 - Leave a Response

So far today the only location that has seen any rain has been our far northern counties in Missouri.  This activity is moving northeast at around 25 mph.  It is not severe, and not expected to become severe.

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The atmosphere is primed for severe weather this afternoon/evening/and overnight.  Gusty southerly winds have ushered in moisture and with sunshine, temperatures have soared into the 80s and 90s.  This evening, storms will likely initiate between 3 and 5 pm across our northern and western zones.  These thunderstorms are expected to strengthen quickly.  Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be the primary concerns.  The tornado threat appears to be highest across our northern zones near the Nebraska and Iowa borders.

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As we progress through the evening, storms will continue to develop and expand in coverage.  Showers and thunderstorms will become likely through the late evening hours.  Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, large hail, and isolated tornadoes will be possible with the strongest activity.

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After midnight the severe threat will begin to diminish and all eyes will be on the threat for heavy rain and flash flooding through Wednesday morning.

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A FLASH FLOOD WATCH has been issued for tonight into Wednesday morning for Northern Missouri.

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This is where we are expecting the heaviest rain to fall.  Several inches of rain will be likely in a short amount of time.  If you live in flood prone areas, stay alert to the weather over the next 24 hours.

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Rain chances will diminish from north to south Wednesday as a very strong cold front swings through.  This will usher down chilly Canadian air for the remainder of the workweek and into the weekend.  Hello fall!

Stay alert to the weather this evening and overnight.  Remember to download our FREE StormTrack5 Weather App to stay up to date on the latest forecast and for a live look at radar.

Meteorologist Hallie Shulman
Weekend Morning Meteorologist
Hallie.Shulman@KCTV5.com

Hallie’s Hints: Strong Storms Tuesday, Major Cool Down Ahead!

September 8, 2014 - Leave a Response

After a beautiful weekend, you’ve probably noticed the change in air mass today.  High pressure has moved east allowing gusty southerly winds to pick up through the afternoon.  This combined with sunshine has warmed our temperatures into the 80s with higher humidity today.

It will be a quiet night as storms are expected to stay north of our area overnight.

By early Tuesday morning, rain chances will remain on the lower side with just an isolated chance of a shower or thunderstorm through the morning hours.

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After lunchtime, storm chances will increase across the area.

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The strongest storms could produce heavy rainfall, gusty winds, large hail, and even an isolated tornado or two will be possible through the afternoon into the early evening hours.  The tornado threat will be greatest near the Iowa/Missouri border and points northward.

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By late Tuesday evening, heavy rain will become the main threat especially for locations north of I-70.  Several inches of rain will be possible.

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A massive cold front will push through the area Wednesday morning ending all rain chances.  MUCH cooler air will follow the front for the end of the work week.  Morning lows will fall into the 40s with afternoon highs in the 60s.

Meteorologist Hallie Shulman
Weekend Morning Meteorologist
Hallie.Shulman@KCTV5.com

Suchan Says: Fall-like Weekend and Next Chance of Rain

September 5, 2014 - Leave a Response

One last round of scattered rain showers will clip across southern parts of the area through roughly 2am to 5am and then that will be it for rain chances until next week!  Additional rainfall amounts in areas to the south will be light generally around .25″ or less with this final round.

One last round of rain to our southwest will track across southern sections overnight

One last round of rain to our southwest will track across southern sections overnight

Forecast clouds and radar around 3am to 4am

Forecast clouds and radar around 3am to 4am

The weekend’s big weather headline is a push of autumn-like cool air into the region delivering some refreshingly cool mornings followed by pleasantly mild afternoons under sunny skies.  Here are model projections of afternoon highs for both weekend days which is very close to our official forecast!

Model forecast high temperatures Saturday

Model forecast high temperatures Saturday

Model forecast high temperatures Sunday

Model forecast high temperatures Sunday

GO CHIEFS !!!

                    GO CHIEFS !!!

Coming off a great weekend forecast, Monday looks very nice as well with only a slight chance of a shower or storm in far northern sections.  Most of the region will enjoy partly sunny skies and warmer temperatures into the lower 80s.

Rain chances will increase to 40% Tuesday and 50% Wednesday as the next strong cold front begins to surge toward the region.  As this front pushes through Wednesday night into Thursday, another push of very cool autumn air will move in!

GFS model image analyzing best areas of lift and deep moisture for rain chances

GFS model image analyzing best areas of lift and deep moisture for rain chances

GFS model image analyzing best areas of lift and deep moisture for rain chances

GFS model image analyzing best areas of lift and deep moisture for rain chances

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

 

Suchan Says: Cold Front on the March

September 4, 2014 - Leave a Response

Thursday has been every bit the sizzling hot day we thought it would be.  Temperatures reached the lower to mid 90s and it felt closer to 100.  Signs of change are already evident however when you take a peek at temperatures across Nebraska and extreme northwestern Kansas as a cold front surges south.

Hot early evening temperatures but a cold front is racing south toward the region

Hot early evening temperatures but a cold front is racing south toward the region

As the front moves in Friday, we will see a gradual increase of clouds into the area and eventually rain chances will climb as well.  The first part of the day doesn’t appear all that active as the best chances for rain will actually reside “behind” the frontal boundary.  So morning rain chances to start the day will run around 10% through sunrise then climb to 30% by midday.

During the afternoon and evening, rain chances will increase to 60%.  The best chance for thunderstorms will be near the I-70 corridor and points south where warmer temperatures will be found.  I should point out, there could be a solid 20-degree temperature range across the area with northern sections struggling to hit 70 while areas to the south flirt with 90 (with enough sun)!

Here’s a look at a series of hour-by-hour forecast images to give you some idea on rain chances and cloudiness.

Computer model forecast around sunrise

Computer model forecast around sunrise

Computer model forecast around mid to late afternoon

Computer model forecast around mid to late afternoon

Computer model forecast Friday evening

Computer model forecast Friday evening

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Beyond Friday, the weekend looks great with a good amount of sunshine and very comfortable autumn-like conditions across the area.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

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