Suchan Says: Small Rain Chances, Nice Temperatures and Next Week

July 29, 2014 - Leave a Response

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A large zone of rain is ready to blossom just to our west / southwest over the next 24 hours.  And while we could use a nice day or two of soaking rain, the bulk of this rain will miss us just to the southwest Wednesday then head well south of the region Thursday.  But, there will be a slight chance for sprinkles or a couple of isolated showers in our southern counties Wednesday.

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Forecast clouds and radar early Wednesday morning

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Most of Wednesday’s rain just south of the viewing area

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Slight risk for a sprinkle or shower well to the south by the evening

Temperatures on Wednesday will once again only reach the lower to mid 80s with easy to take humidity.  Breezes will be light.  So all in all, another beauty of a day!!

Thursday looks like another very nice day with a slight chance for an afternoon shower in far southern sections or just out of our viewing region.  Highs barely reach the mid 80s.

Friday will have a weak disturbance passing overhead with an unstable atmosphere developing.  Moisture is rather limited but I think enough is in place to support a 20% chance of isolated showers or t-storms.  Highs again in the mid 80s.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will inch back up into the upper 80s to perhaps 90 for Monday and Tuesday.  Both days should remain sunny and dry as well.  The pattern then becomes more interesting and active for the second half of the week as another breakdown in the ridge occurs.  Typically, a hot ridge of high pressure builds into place and just cooks our region.  This year however has been quite a contrast from typical.  As this ridge breaks down, cooler temperatures will again move in but also with higher rain chances.

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GFS model in long range outlook

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Model forecast rainfall projections next Thursday.  More active look across the region

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Climate Prediction Center’s temperature 8 to 14 day temperature outlook.  Once again, “below average” !

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Temperature departure from average for July.  Very cool across the Plains, Midwest into Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

 

 

Suchan Says: Cool Surge Again… Need Some Rain

July 28, 2014 - Leave a Response

No surprise here!  July will end on an unseasonably cool note this week as we prepare for early August.  Yet again, another big trough of cool, Canadian air has established itself across the eastern half of the country keeping temperatures below average for half of the country this week!

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Highs for the remainder of the week will run from the upper 70s to lower 80s the next couple of days then climb toward the mid 80s by the end of the week.  Morning lows will run in the upper 50s to lower 60s for several mornings as well !!

For all this nice weather we’re enjoying, I would like to see a little more rain across the region.  We’re falling behind for July but the year as well.

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Tuesday will stay dry for the area with a mix of clouds and sun.  By Wednesday, a large area will blossom across the Plains and just brush across some of the Midwest.  An opportunity for a widespread soaking rain appears as though it will miss the region.  That said, I do expect a couple of light showers to clip across the area.

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NAM computer model showing large area of rain across Kansas and Oklahoma early Wednesday

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Steering currents guide area of rain just south of the area Wednesday morning

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In-house computer model showing area of rain Wednesday south of the region

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Closer look at Wednesday 7:00am forecast clouds and rain

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Wednesday midday forecast clouds and rain

Rain chances are very limited the rest of the week with an isolated rain chance Thursday night through Friday.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

Kosek Kalls It: Weekend Dead; So Is High Humidity

July 27, 2014 - Leave a Response

It’s been a cool run for much of July.  No kidding, right?  Despite a couple cameo appearances to Summer, this month has sparked a mere 5 days with temps running at or above 90 degrees.    blog_3

 

So, now that we’re back into the same ol’ pattern of northwest steering winds, July will stay put on the cold side of average.  August doesn’t look to turn the tide, either.  More likely than not the warmer waters of the central and north Pacific Ocean will aid in the development of low pressure over the Great Lakes, and high pressure over the Desert Southwest.   If you’re armed with the knowledge that steering winds around low pressure are counter-clockwise; vice-verse around high pressure, then you know our wind flow will be out of the northwest.   Fortunate, or not, that’s a cool flow with only occasional bouts of precipitation.   

So, the question begs to be asked.  What is one to do?   Well, I live life by two simple rules.  1.  If you see your shadow, then grab a pair of sunglasses.   2.   Never let the weather be a deterrent to having fun.   And, with that in mind, I say who cares if it’s cool with the chance of a shower and thunderstorm.   There’s much to be done outside, from gobbling down funnel cakes to getting sick on one of the wild rides.   Enjoy!

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Hallie’s Hints: Steamy Saturday, Few Storms Possible

July 26, 2014 - Leave a Response

Another hot and humid day is headed our way with high temperatures this afternoon in the mid to upper 90s.

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When the humidity is added into the equation, temperatures will be feeling a good 5 to 10° warmer than what you’re reading on the thermometer. A HEAT ADVISORY has been posted through 8 tonight for a large portion of our viewing area. If you’ll be outdoors enjoying the day, make sure to stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade to stay safe in the heat.

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We’ll be tracking a cold front this afternoon into this evening up to the north. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely along the front.

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The strongest thunderstorms could produce gusty winds in excess of 60 mph, quarter size hail, and very heavy rainfall. Locations North of I-70 will have the highest likelihood of seeing severe weather today.

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The cold front will be moving south late this evening into the overnight hours.

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All rain chances will end early Sunday morning. Thanks to the cold front, cooler temperatures with less humidity can be expected Sunday afternoon.

Have a great day and try to stay cool!

Meteorologist Hallie Shulman
Weekend Morning Meteorologist
Hallie.Shulman@KCTV5.com

Suchan Says: Another Strong Cold Front and Long Range Outlook

July 25, 2014 - Leave a Response

The weekend offers up one more hazy, hot and humid day with temperatures likely in the 90s for the bulk of the area to even low 100s possible.  The only question I have on temperature forecasting, how much patchy cloudiness will we see during the middle of the day to block out some of the strong sun ??  If we get too much midday cloudiness, temperatures will struggle to hit the mid 90s.  As I see it now, I will continue with our forecast high of 94 which is just a hair cooler than Friday but still quite hot.  Factor in humidity and it will feel like it’s 104 to 108.  Heat Advisory is in effect for this reason from 1pm to 8pm.

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There will also be a 30% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.  It’s not a favorable setup for a widespread coverage of storms but there’s enough in place to produce at least a scattering of hit or miss storms.  If a stronger storm can develop during the afternoon, it has the potential to drop some pretty decent wind gusts.  Most storms would be high based Saturday with quite a bit of dry air below their cloud base.  This is a favorable setup for strong wind gusts and I wouldn’t rule out a severe storm or two.  Conditions would be less supportive for large hail given very warm air aloft.

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This image from the NAM computer model highlights a corridor of decent moisture across our area with pockets of lift noted ahead of an advancing cold front.  It is this region which I believe will fire off a few storms that will travel east to southeast after developing and ultimately crossing the Mississippi deeper into the day.

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20% Isolated storms by early afternoon to mid afternoon… chance increases to 30% late afternoon into the evening

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Cold front well south of the area Sunday afternoon.  Still seasonably hot (85 – 90) but with a BIG drop in humidity !

Long Range

Next week will run cooler than normal all week as we wrap up July and work into early August.  Yet again, a dominant pattern from late spring and this summer emerges with a large trough in the eastern half of the country while a hot ridge establishes out west!  Typically we’d see a big Bermuda high pumping in heat and humidity out east with a large ridge centered over our area into the west for true summer heat.  We just have not been able to lock into this pattern thus far and this reduces our bouts of intense heat to just a day or two before a nice spell of cooler air returns.  Remarkable!

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Cool pattern next week !

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And check this out, the Climate Prediction Center’s long range forecast up to August 8th is running well below normal temperatures for a good chunk of the country including our area!

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Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

 

Suchan Says: Blazing Hot with a Few Storms

July 24, 2014 - Leave a Response

While the main headline Friday will be the return to high heat and humidity during the afternoon, a secondary headline of scattered storms will be possible with particular emphasis on the northern half of the area.  A warm front is approaching the area to our west and is associated with a moderately strong low level jet of wind just off the surface aiding in showers and t-storms in Nebraska.  I expect some of this activity to scrape across parts of the area early Friday through roughly midday before moving on.

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By the afternoon, any shot at seeing a pop up storm will diminish quite a bit as very warm air aloft moves in and effectively suppresses storm development.  This is where temperatures get a bit boost into the 90s for much of the area with a shot at hitting 100 in our far western sections.  Factor in humidity and it will easily feel like it’s over 100 degrees all across the area.

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30% Scattered storms for mainly northern half of the area Friday morning

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20% Isolated storms possible at midday

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Mostly sunny and hot for remainder of the afternoon

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Heat Advisory from 12pm to 7pm Friday

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In-house computer model forecast temperatures (feels hotter when humidity is factored in)

Saturday is another hazy, hot and humid day with a 30% chance of scattered storms with times of hot sun.  Temperatures will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s.  Sunday will start with a lingering early day shower or storms before going mostly sunny, windy and seasonably hot for the afternoon.  What you’ll notice Sunday, a big drop in humidity by late afternoon as the initial push of cooler and drier air arrives !!

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

Hallie’s Hints: Heat & Humidity Return Friday

July 24, 2014 - Leave a Response

Hope you enjoyed the BEAUTIFUL weather today because we have some big changes headed our way. A warm front will lift north Friday ushering in heat and humidity.

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A Heat Advisory has been issued from Noon through 7 pm Friday.

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Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 90s by afternoon. When you factor in the humidity, temperatures will be feeling more like 105° to 110°. If you’ll be outdoors for extended periods of time, make sure you are staying hydrated and taking breaks to stay safe in the heat.

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Isolated thunderstorm chances will be included in the forecast on Friday as well. Locations north of Highway 36 will have the best opportunity to see any rain.  Most locations will stay dry.

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Enjoy your evening and try to stay cool tomorrow!

Meteorologist Hallie Shulman
Weekend Morning Meteorologist
Hallie.Shulman@KCTV5.com

Suchan Says: Temperature Swings and Look at Rain Chances

July 23, 2014 - Leave a Response

Thursday is shaping up to be a beautiful summer day with low to mid 80s for temperatures along with low humidity levels given late July standards.  Skies will become partly sunny during the day and I’ll be watching for a possible area of showers and storms in eastern Nebraska to develop.  If this area takes shape, it could sneak into far northern Missouri in a weakening state before completely falling apart.  But even here in far northern sections, rain chances are 20% or less.

Friday will have a warm front cutting through the area early in the day with a few thunderstorms possible.  Once the front pushes by, breezes will kick up and temperatures will climb quickly well into the 90s.  Hot temperatures combined with higher humidity levels will make it feel like it’s 105 or hotter again.  We could finish the day with a couple of storms before moving into the weekend forecast.  Rain chance Friday is around 30% for early in the day and again in the evening.

Saturday is a partly sunny day, hot with a continued 30% chance of scattered storms.  A cold front will move through the area over the weekend but this will occur just before sunrise Sunday.  Once the front clears, a transition toward another stretch of cooler days will be underway!

Here are a series of images from Thursday early afternoon to Friday evening from our in-house computer model.

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Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

Suchan Says: Cooling Midweek Relief and Storm Chances

July 22, 2014 - Leave a Response

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The advertised hottest day of the year verified Tuesday with most areas in the mid 90s to low 100s across the area.  Heat index values pushed all the way to 107 to 114 when you factor in the humidity too.

But once again, we’re tracking cooler temperatures ready to move back in limiting us to just one intense day of heat.  Just remarkable in what has been a cool year for us.  For some perspective, here’s a comparison to 2012 which was off the charts with intensely hot days!

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As a cold front approaches the area tonight, we’ll continue with an isolated 20% chance of isolated thunderstorm.  It appears the best chance will be in our eastern half of the area into central Missouri for an isolated storm.  Overall, I’m just not impressed for much activity across the region.

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Wednesday starts with a small chance of a early morning shower or storm then turns mostly to partly sunny and cooler with much lower humidity working in.  Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s across the area.

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Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

 

Suchan Says: Blistering Hot Day then More Cool Relief?!

July 21, 2014 - Leave a Response
Heat Advisory for the entire area Tuesday

Heat Advisory for the entire area Tuesday

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the year by a mile and truly one of those intense days of heat that we come to expect a handful of times in the Midwest in the middle of summer.  Make sure you take frequent breaks, stay hydrated, check on those without A/C and don’t forget about fresh water for outdoor pets.

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The good news if you’re not a fan of these intensely hot days, we’ll be cooling down already by the time we hit Wednesday as yet another cold front makes a nice push across the area Tuesday night.  So ahead of the cold front, mostly to partly sunny and brutally hot.  By the evening, a few showers or thunderstorms are possible as the cold front sags into the region starting up north and working south across the KC metro Tuesday night.

By Wednesday afternoon, the front will be to our south with the best chance for a shower or storm in the southern half of the region.  Drier air will move in during the day creating mostly to partly sunny skies with highs only reaching the upper 80s.  Yes seasonably hot but after Tuesday’s heat, it will actually feel quite refreshing !!

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

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