Football and thunderstorms…..LOVE ‘EM!!!!
That’s the pic from the ‘Hogs & Tigers game in Auburn, AL this weekend.
While the parent storm responsible for this isn’t coming our way, the question begs to be asked….what becomes of our holiday weekend? It’s been a good one thus far, weather-wise. However, that’s gonna change.
Look northwest! The wet weather associated with a Montana cold front will drop into the area later this weekend. The cold front is strong enough, along with converging winds along its length to tag-team with available moisture to produce some big storms around here. There is a slight risk of severe storms in the green shaded area below, Sunday night.
As the thunderstorms cluster together, there will be pockets of flooding rain, if not damaging wind gusts and hail. The first batch of storms that can arrive near sunset across far northwest MO will weaken somewhat on their trek south and east, but can easily arrive in the metro later Sunday night. Bottom line: get your holiday outdoor grilling on! I say that because:
The risk of severe weather will shift farther south and east come Labor Day. The main risk for severe weather will come with the maximum heating of the day though. So, keep in mind, the more sun we have early in the day will be more fuel tossed onto the fire for later in the day. Here’s what I’m thinking for thunderstorm chances on Labor Day.
Enjoy the holiday, stay safe and sweaty, and follow me on twitter if you like. @jimkosek
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After rounding out Friday with some scattered showers and thunderstorms, Saturday morning starts off with a great looking morning with mostly clear skies. There could be some patches of fog in the area to start after Friday’s rain combined with light winds and temperatures cooling to near the dew point temperature.
Saturday afternoon offers plenty of sunshine. Only risk for a pop up thunderstorm is in central to eastern Missouri. The western half of Missouri into Kansas should have enough dry air in place to keep skies mostly sunny. Highs will run near 87 with light winds.
Sunday turns much hotter under mostly sunny skies. Breezes will kick up from the south around 10 -20 mph and this should push temperatures up to near 92 for a high.
I’ll be carefully watching Sunday night into Monday for a possible round of scattered thunderstorms. There will be some potential for strong to severe storms based on current data this Friday night. At the moment, it appears storms would tend to arrive once the sun has set Sunday but there is plenty of wind shear available Sunday night for storms to work with. If they come in on the aggressive side, hail and strong wind gusts would be main issues with locally heavy rain and frequent lightning.
NAM computer model Sunday evening… analysis of deep layer lift / moisture
NAM computer model image Sunday night… analysis of deep layer lift / moisture
Storms tonight have been under control with just a couple of isolated strong wind gusts reported. But they brought the region some awesome pictures as their timing just before sunset made for a rich set of colors in the sky!!
One last round of showers or a couple weak thunderstorms will be in our forecast through midnight as a small upper level disturbance passes by. While I’m not expecting severe weather, these thunderstorms will bring locally heavy rain, a few wind gusts and lightning strikes if you get caught in one.
Bulk of showers and storms now in Ray to Jackson County and moving east
Additional showers and thunderstorms are developing in northern Missouri into Iowa while very little activity is found in our southern zones.
Skies will clear out tonight with a few areas of late night patchy fog possible into Saturday’s sunrise. Saturday afternoon looks fantastic and Sunday turns hot and breezy before another round of storms rumble in Sunday night to Monday.
It has been a frustrating time tracking showers and thunderstorms across the Midwest with barely a drop reaching the Kansas City Metro. That should change this afternoon with a line of rather weak showers and storms working to the state line by mid afternoon and holding in place through the early evening hours. After a fleeting rain drop or two late tonight the remainder of the weekend will be warm and dry.
There can be no guarantees everyone will see rain Friday but there is enough on the table to ensure more than half of the area sees some measurable rain. Here are a series of images taking a closer look at Friday’s set up for rain chances along with an hour-by-hour set of panels from our in-house computer model.
Upper level trough still west of the region producing scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms
NAM computer model with upper level trough position just after midnight
NAM computer model… upper level trough position Friday afternoon moving into the area
NAM computer model… upper level jet stream analysis showing favorable location for Kansas City underneath a 40 – 50 kt winds
NAM computer model… image shows patchy clouds with a few breaks of sun. Also pockets of lift through the region for scattered showers or T-storms to develop
Forecast clouds / radar around 7:00am
Forecast clouds / radar around midday
Forecast clouds / radar around 5:00pm
Forecast clouds / radar around 8:00pm
So for at least half the day Friday, rain chances will be kept in the isolated 20% to 30% range. By later in the afternoon to evening, a notable boost in rain chances (60%) will occur after a period of daytime heating combined with the upper level trough arriving with decent jet stream dynamics. Rainfall amounts of generally .25″ to .75″ seems likely although a simple passing thunderstorm will likely leave a zone of .50″ to 1.00″ of rain along its path. Northern Missouri into Iowa could see a zone of 1″ – 2″ of rain.
High temperatures Friday will reach near the mid 80s.
Saturday looks to be a nice day overall but enough moisture may be in place for a stray 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Thursday starts off with a similar rain chance to Wednesday morning with the northern half of the area once again the prime region to see scattered showers or thunderstorms. A large complex of rain (see image) is already ongoing in Nebraska to northern Kansas and is moving to the northeast. Computer modeling coming in this evening is doing a nice job of highlighting where this region of heavier rain will likely track.
Showers and storms moving to the northeast (arrows indicate likely track)
GFS model with a impressive bullseye of lift / deep moisture…. most likely area of moderate to at times heavier rainfall
GFS model around mid morning… still a decent bullseye of lift and moisture in northern Missouri
Beyond the morning time frame, a mix of clouds and sun will dominate the day with rain chances in the 20% to 30% range for the remainder of the day. Temperatures should once again showcase a wide range from low to mid 80s up north to mid 90s to the south.
Model projected temperatures around 4:00pm (our forecast high is officially 90 at KCI)
Friday starts off with only a 20% chance of a morning shower or thunderstorm. By the afternoon to evening Friday, a well developed upper level trough will push into the area. This feature will combine with daytime heating to add extra lift to the atmosphere for fairly widespread development of showers and thunderstorms. The chance of rain will increase to 70% by late afternoon and highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
NAM computer model… 500mb analysis
NAM computer model… deep layer moisture / lift analysis
The days of intense heat prompting daily heat advisories for now are behind us although do not kid yourself, a good chunk of the area will be hot and humid the next couple of days but a more traditional form of late August heat can be anticipated with 80s to lower 90s dominating the area along with humid conditions.
Rain chances will tick up to a 30% chance Wednesday starting the day in primarily northern sections then all areas could see a pop up shower or storm later in the afternoon to early evening.
Forecast clouds / rain for 7am Wednesday
Forecast clouds / rain for Wednesday late afternoon
Forecast clouds / rain for Wednesday evening
Thursday’s rain chance increases to 40% with the main windows of opportunity being the morning and again in the evening after 6:00pm (middle of the day is a 20% chance).
Rain chances will be the highest Thursday night and Friday as a good combination of ingredients will come together to support widespread showers and thunderstorm development. The atmosphere will be pretty juiced up holding quite a bit of water while daytime heating into the mid 80s creates an unstable atmosphere. At the same time, a healthy upper level trough will be sliding in to create lift for showers and storms to develop. This will result in a mostly cloudy day with a 70% chance you’ll see showers or storms during the day.
500mb analysis off GFS model. Nice lobe of vorticity (atmospheric spin) with upper level trough approaching Friday
Deep layer moisture / lift off GFS model Friday
This same upper level trough will slowly move east of the area by Saturday afternoon allowing drier conditions to build in. Rain chances will be highest through midday Saturday before dropping off.
Tracking showers and storms to west overnight. Some of this activity could scrape across our area late tonight
A cluster of showers and storms west of the region could take a run at the region late tonight. Right now, the most likely zone to see some of this rain and a little thunder would be in northeastern Kansas into northern Missouri. A rough outline would be near I-70 and to the north. That said, I will keep a slight chance of a stray shower or weak t-storm south of I-70 tonight but rain chances are definitely a little higher to the north.
By sunrise, rain chances are decreasing to the point where skies are trending mostly by the afternoon and temperatures begin to soar again toward the mid 90s. With humidity factored in, it will feel like it’s 100 to 106 again across the area and a Heat Advisory is in effect to cover the afternoon to early evening.
Forecast clouds and radar 4:00am
Forecast clouds and radar 7:00am
Forecast clouds and radar afternoon
Wednesday will also run in the lower to mid 90s for much of the area with an isolated 20% chance of rain. Thursday will cool to near the 90-degree mark with a little better chance for late day showers or storms (40%). By Friday, variably cloudy skies with a solid 70% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms will be in the forecast. Highs will run in the mid 80s Friday.
Another day of heat and humidity is headed our way… in fact, the Heat Advisory time frame has now been extended through Sunday and Monday afternoon! Try to stay cool out there!
Breezy winds out of the south will pick up this afternoon with gusts as high as 25 mph. It won’t bring much relief from the heat unfortunately.
A very weak cold front will slide into the area today and stall. This cold front won’t bring any cooler air, but it could help spark a few showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening hours. Most locations will be dry, so consider yourself lucky if you see any rain!
The heat continues for the first part of the work week with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s. With that front remaining stalled over our region Monday, a few additional showers and thunderstorms could develop Monday afternoon and evening.
A stronger cold front is expected Wednesday into Thursday. This front will bring beneficial rainfall as well as a big cool down for the end of the work week! Enjoy!
Have a great day!
Meteorologist Hallie Shulman
Weekend Morning Meteorologist
It’s too hot to be reading stuff, so I’ll keep this short and sweet. The good news: we’re more than half way through our latest heat wave.
The bad news: we’re only a little more than half way through our latest heat wave.
Stay sweaty, and enjoy!
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