Suchan Says: Clouds Here to Stay

December 20, 2014 - Leave a Response

The winter solstice officially arrives Sunday marking the beginning of winter.  Of course, it has felt like winter for the past month and definitely looks the part with a seemingly endless supply of clouds each and every day.  The supply of low level moisture to generate stubborn cloudiness stretched across the middle of the country is high and we simply do not have a good scouring mechanism to mix these clouds out or move them on.  Plus, we have a very low sun angle with a residual snow pack offsetting surface warming which can aid in breaking these clouds apart.

So over the weekend, plan on a lot of cloudiness with perhaps a moment of “tease” where you think a break or two may occur.  Overall, low clouds will win the weekend forecast.  In addition, we’ll see times of fog or mist.

Highs on Saturday will reach near 38 and on Sunday should get a push into the mid 40s.

Grab the umbrella Monday as we have a 50% chance of scattered rain showers in the morning and again later in the day as our next strong cold front pushes through.  Highs on Monday reach close to 50 before tumbling back into the 30s Tuesday.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

Amble’s Ramble

December 19, 2014 - Leave a Response

Areas of fog will cover parts of West central and southwest Missouri catching a small portion of adjacent counties in Kansas. While it possible to see a little light fog this morning in the Metro area the dense fog will be confined to areas south. It could present a few travel issues over those areas until mid-morning.

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The weekend looks promising with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures just warm enough to melt most of the snow away by the end of the day Sunday. Have a great weekend.

Suchan Says: Hope You Like Your Skies “Cloudy” !

December 19, 2014 - Leave a Response

Our overnight forecast into the Friday morning commute will have a chance for a few patches of black ice from refreeze conditions.  Fortunately temperatures will not tumble tonight but they will be cold enough to allow for a few icy spots.  Patchy fog will also be in the forecast into Friday morning with visibility at times around a 1/2 mile to 1 mile in the area.  Lows in the morning near 29 to 30 degrees.

The rest of Friday’s forecast is just cloudy, cold and raw.  Temperatures will climb toward the mid 30s allowing for snow melt in the region.  Saturday’s forecast and for that matter Sunday’s forecast will also be cloudy.  Temperatures will be warming into the weekend with upper 30s to near 40 Saturday and mid 40s on Sunday.  This will essentially melt away our season’s first snow and if there are a few patches of snow left by Monday of next week, a decent chance of rain showers and a “mild” day Monday should wash away whatever is left.

Here’s a look at some snow reports around the area from the National Weather Service.

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 AM     SNOW             2 SW RENO               39.03N 95.14W
12/18/2014  M2.5 INCH        LEAVENWORTH        KS   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION TONGANOXIE 6.3 SSW
            /KS-LV-2/ SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0829 AM     SNOW             4 SSW GUNN CITY         38.62N 94.18W
12/18/2014  M1.0 INCH        CASS               MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION GARDEN CITY 3.9 N
            /MO-CS-12/ SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0757 AM     SNOW             4 N PITTSVILLE          38.91N 94.00W
12/18/2014  M1.3 INCH        JOHNSON            MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION ODESSA 6.7 SSW /MO-JH-5/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0757 AM     SNOW             5 N OAKVIEW             39.28N 94.57W
12/18/2014  M3.7 INCH        CLAY               MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION GLADSTONE 4.4 N /MO-CY-18/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0745 AM     SNOW             BOONVILLE               38.96N 92.74W
12/18/2014  M0.3 INCH        COOPER             MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION BOONVILLE 0.5 SE /MO-CP-5/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0744 AM     SNOW             3 NW LENEXA             38.98N 94.76W
12/18/2014  M3.1 INCH        JOHNSON            KS   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION LENEXA 2.0 NE /KS-JO-40/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0828 AM     SNOW             1 NE ALBANY             40.26N 94.33W
12/18/2014  M1.0 INCH        GENTRY             MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION ALBANY 0.7 NE /MO-FSA-075/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0737 AM     SNOW             1 E WEATHERBY LAKE      39.24N 94.68W
12/18/2014  M3.6 INCH        PLATTE             MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WEATHERBY LAKE 1.1 E
            /MO-PT-3/ SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0736 AM     SNOW             GALLATIN                39.91N 93.97W
12/18/2014  M2.9 INCH        DAVIESS            MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION GALLATIN 0.4 WSW /MO-DV-3/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0732 AM     SNOW             3 SW WEATHERBY LAKE     39.21N 94.74W
12/18/2014  M3.6 INCH        PLATTE             MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION PARKVILLE 3.7 WNW
            /MO-PT-17/ SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0731 AM     SNOW             1 NNW WEATHERBY LAKE    39.25N 94.70W
12/18/2014  M3.4 INCH        PLATTE             MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WEATHERBY LAKE 0.8 NNW
            /MO-PT-10/ SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0717 AM     SNOW             4 E SMITHVILLE          39.38N 94.51W
12/18/2014  M3.7 INCH        CLAY               MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION SMITHVILLE 3.4 E /MO-CY-19/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0717 AM     SNOW             6 E REA                 40.06N 94.66W
12/18/2014  M2.5 INCH        ANDREW             MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION REA 5.5 E /MO-AW-7/ SNOW
            DURATION 24 HOURS.


0714 AM     SNOW             4 NNW LIBERTY           39.30N 94.44W
12/18/2014  M3.9 INCH        CLAY               MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION LIBERTY 4.1 NNW /MO-CY-20/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0826 AM     SNOW             4 WSW GRANT CITY        40.46N 94.49W
12/18/2014  M0.8 INCH        WORTH              MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION GRANT CITY 4.4 WSW
            /MO-WH-1/ SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0707 AM     SNOW             3 SSE PLATTE CITY       39.33N 94.76W
12/18/2014  M3.2 INCH        PLATTE             MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION PLATTE CITY 2.0 SSE
            /MO-PT-9/ SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0810 AM     SNOW             CONCEPTION JUNCTION     40.27N 94.69W
12/18/2014  M1.5 INCH        NODAWAY            MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION CONCEPTION JUNCTION 0.3 SE
            /MO-ND-2/ SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


1012 AM     SNOW             1 W GLENAIRE            39.22N 94.46W
12/18/2014  M4.5 INCH        CLAY               MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION GLENAIRE 0.6 W /MO-CY-6/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0804 AM     SNOW             1 WNW CHILLICOTHE       39.80N 93.57W
12/18/2014  M3.5 INCH        LIVINGSTON         MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION CHILLICOTHE 0.9 WNW
            /MO-LV-1/ SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0934 AM     SNOW             1 SW OSAWATOMIE         38.50N 94.96W
12/18/2014  M2.5 INCH        MIAMI              KS   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION OSAWATOMIE 0.6 SW /KS-MI-9/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


1027 AM     SNOW             5 SE RICH HILL          38.06N 94.29W
12/18/2014  M1.0 INCH        BATES              MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION RICH HILL 4.9 SE /MO-BS-1/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0929 AM     SNOW             4 SE BOONVILLE          38.93N 92.69W
12/18/2014  M0.5 INCH        COOPER             MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION BOONVILLE 3.7 SE
            /MO-FSA-053/ SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0914 AM     SNOW             1 ESE RAYMORE           38.80N 94.44W
12/18/2014  M0.5 INCH        CASS               MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION RAYMORE 1.2 SE /MO-CS-2/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


1006 AM     SNOW             GREEN RIDGE             38.62N 93.41W
12/18/2014  M1.5 INCH        PETTIS             MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION GREEN RIDGE 0.3 NNW
            /MO-PS-2/ SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0900 AM     SNOW             5 NW OLATHE             38.93N 94.89W
12/18/2014  M3.0 INCH        JOHNSON            KS   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION OLATHE 4.9 NW /KS-JO-42/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0852 AM     SNOW             1 WNW GALLATIN          39.92N 93.98W
12/18/2014  M3.0 INCH        DAVIESS            MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION GALLATIN 1.1 WNW
            /MO-FSA-061/ SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0655 AM     SNOW             4 WSW HOPKINS           40.54N 94.89W
12/18/2014  M1.0 INCH        NODAWAY            MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION HOPKINS 3.9 WSW /MO-ND-6/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0632 AM     SNOW             1 SW BUTLER             38.25N 94.35W
12/18/2014  M2.0 INCH        BATES              MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION BUTLER 0.8 SSW /MO-FSA-013/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0847 AM     SNOW             1 SE OVERLAND PARK      38.98N 94.66W
12/18/2014  M3.5 INCH        JOHNSON            KS   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION OVERLAND PARK 0.6 SE
            /KS-JO-34/ SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0626 AM     SNOW             1 ESE JAMESPORT         39.96N 93.78W
12/18/2014  M2.1 INCH        DAVIESS            MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION JAMESPORT 1.3 ESE /MO-DV-2/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0832 AM     SNOW             3 ESE LINNEUS           39.86N 93.15W
12/18/2014  M2.5 INCH        LINN               MO   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION LINNEUS 2.5 ESE /MO-LN-1/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


0539 AM     SNOW             1 W KANSAS CITY KANSAS  39.12N 94.65W
12/18/2014  M3.5 INCH        WYANDOTTE          KS   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION KANSAS CITY 4.1 E /KS-WY-7/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.


Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

Amble’s Ramble

December 18, 2014 - Leave a Response

Snow totals …so far are in the 1″ to 4″ range. An additional 1/2″ to 1″ is possible today as the snow tapers off early this afternoon. Cold air will settle in so don’t expect this to melt away until the end of the weekend.

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Suchan Says: 11:30pm Snow Update

December 18, 2014 - Leave a Response
Snow moving into the KC metro

Snow moving into the KC metro

Starting to get quite a few reports of snow into the western / southwestern side of the metro with a dusting to just under a 1/2″ of snow accumulation reported in some cases.

Snow falling in Olathe

Snow falling in Olathe

Snow will continue to overspread the remainder of the metro through midnight.  The rest of the night will feature light to occasional pockets of heavier snow.  Looking at a recent satellite / radar composite we can see the upper low passing to our south with the north to northwest side of this feature developing a classic band of light to moderate snowfall.  This is the reasoning for snow tonight in the forecast and the Winter Weather Advisory that’s in effect.

Satellite / Radar composite.  I added the low's position to our south and the favored axis of snow I'm tracking overnight into our area.

Satellite / Radar composite. I added the low’s position to our south and the favored axis of snow I’m tracking overnight into our area.

Here’s a look at the updated timeline of the snow through the area along with updated computer snowfall forecast amounts which I believe are very close to our forecast expectations!  This is a broad 1 to 3 inch snowfall with a isolated spot or two just over 3 inches of snow.

Forecast clouds / radar just after midnight

Forecast clouds / radar just after midnight

Forecast clouds / radar during the morning commute

Forecast clouds / radar during the morning commute

Forecast clouds / radar mid morning Thursday (snow is over)

Forecast clouds / radar mid morning Thursday (snow is over)

Forecast snowfall amounts by our in-house computer model

Forecast snowfall amounts by our in-house computer model

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

Suchan Says: Snow is on the Way

December 17, 2014 - Leave a Response

Everything appears on schedule for our first bout of winter weather in the Kansas City metro (areas to north and south have already had some snow this season).  While not a blockbuster winter storm, we will certainly see enough snow to create some travel hazards overnight and for the Thursday morning commute.

Live Power Doppler Radar

Live Power Doppler Radar

Snow with some rain and sleet mixed in is moving across the southern third of the viewing area as I type.  I still anticipate a push into the KC metro between 8pm – 10pm then spreading north through the remainder of the night.  Everything tapers off between 7am – 10am Thursday morning to just mist or freezing mist the rest of Thursday.

The system of interest is not a particularly strong system but has enough going for it to produce a general 1″ to 3″ snow.  There are signs a couple of very narrow mesoscale bands of heavier snowfall rates could materialize in the area.  If this verifies, isolated spots could see just over 3″ of snow.

Here’s a timeline of the winter weather to move through along with our in-house computer model projections on snow amounts which I feel is very close to our going forecast!

Forecast clouds and radar

Forecast clouds and radar 9:00pm

Forecast clouds and radar early tonight

Forecast clouds and radar midnight

Forecast clouds and radar early Thursday morning

Forecast clouds and radar early Thursday morning

Forecast clouds and radar mid morning Thursday

Forecast clouds and radar mid morning Thursday

Forecast snowfall amounts

Forecast snowfall amounts

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

Amble’s Ramble

December 17, 2014 - Leave a Response

***** Winter Weather Advisory *****

Skies today will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy with chances for wintry precipitation closing in on the Metro after sunset. You have plenty of time to find that snow shovel which gathered plenty of dust over the Spring, Summer and Fall. This incoming system will not be a whopper with accumulations on the light side over the next 24 hours. A perfect first snow so you can practice your Winter skills.

Incoming precipitation will favor a light mix this evening in areas southwest of the Kansas City area followed by a transition to all snow by about 8:00 PM. Now, when I say all snow I mean scattered bands of LIGHT SNOW. The best chances for snow to fall will be between 10:00 PM and 4:00 AM. Even within that time frame there will be plenty of breaks where NO snow flakes will be falling. It will take most of the night to accumulate just an inch of snow!

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Once the snow comes to an end Thursday mid-morning it will likely stick around for a few days as cold air settles in. Most of the snow will disappear Sunday with the remaining piles melting away early next week.

Suchan Says: Winter Weather Ahead

December 16, 2014 - Leave a Response

The cold weather is certainly back in place and now it appears just enough moisture will be ready to move in to generate some winter weather for the area and an impact on area roads.  Although at this stage of the forecast, this does not appear to be a major event.

Much of Wednesday is cold and dry with even times of some sun through patchy clouds.  Issues emerge in the forecast by mid to late evening as rain well to our south surges north into the southern half of the viewing area during the evening.  Temperatures initially will be marginal for all snow.  So a period of rain, sleet and wet snow is likely before the temperature cools sufficiently to support a change to all snow.

The wintry mix works into the metro then areas to the north deeper into the evening.  Temperatures will be colder in northern sections which will keep the dominant form of precip as snow with just a touch of a wintry mix at the onset.

This system will be moisture starved and will lack strong dynamics.  The end result, a general .08″ to .25″ of liquid is my feel right now with some of this liquid lost to melting processes.  That’s why I’m going to keep my snow accumulation to a .25″ to just under 2″ across the area.  Given the bulk of this will occur while the sun is down Wednesday night, this system will have a better chance to accumulate before tapering to flurries or patchy drizzle for the remainder of the day.

I expect some slick travel Wednesday night into the Thursday morning commute.  Thursday afternoon should have mainly wet roads with a few slushy areas.  We’ll monitor refreeze conditions Friday morning as temperatures dip into the upper 20s Friday morning.

Planner Forecast Wednesday as Winter Weather Arrives Late

Planner Forecast Wednesday as Winter Weather Arrives Late

Forecast clouds and radar Wednesday morning

Forecast clouds and radar Wednesday morning

Forecast clouds and radar Wednesday Afternoon

Forecast clouds and radar Wednesday Afternoon

Forecast clouds and radar Wednesday Evening

Forecast clouds and radar Wednesday Evening

Forecast clouds and radar Wednesday Night / Thursday Morning

Forecast clouds and radar Wednesday Night / Thursday Morning

Forecast clouds and radar Thursday Afternoon

Forecast clouds and radar Thursday Afternoon

Forecast Expectations

Forecast Expectations

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

Amble’s Ramble

December 16, 2014 - Leave a Response

Today will begin with overcast skies, temperatures below freezing and wind chills in the teens. All of this will slowly improve today starting with sunshine. Don’t expect a completely sunny afternoon but a few breaks in the overcast will certainly be welcome. Combine that with diminishing winds and the afternoon will actually feel pleasant.

Another storm system will work its way toward Kansas City late Wednesday. This will not be a huge system but models are in agreement with the potential for 1″ to 2″ by Thursday afternoon. The beginning of this system could offer a light mix of freezing drizzle and snow which could place a thin layer of ice beneath the following light snow. Not a great recipe for your Thursday morning drive!

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Suchan Says: Colder and Blustery, Little Snow Ahead ??

December 16, 2014 - Leave a Response
Low pressure moving away from the region

Low pressure moving away from the region

The storm system from the past 24 to 36 hours is now moving away leaving us cloudy skies and occasional flurries through the night.  Temperatures are falling and winds will be gusty through the morning commute making it feel about 10 degrees colder than the air temperature.

I expect most roads in the area to dry out.  So while temperatures fall into the 20s, refreeze potential will be limited.  I still wouldn’t rule out a few slick spots where roads can’t quite dry out but overall, the commute should be in decent shape.

While temperatures struggle through the day, we will see the sun break through the clouds by mid to late morning!  Afternoon skies turn partly sunny with temperatures struggling back into the mid 30s.  Part of the reason for the temperature struggle, a fresh snow pack across Nebraska, South Dakota into Minnesota will allow air flowing across it to remain that much colder by the time it reaches us.

Forecast clouds and radar Tuesday morning

Forecast clouds and radar Tuesday morning

Forecast clouds and radar Tuesday midday

Forecast clouds and radar Tuesday midday

Forecast clouds and radar Tuesday afternoon

Forecast clouds and radar Tuesday afternoon

Wednesday is a fairly quiet day of weather with a mix of clouds and sunshine.  Temperatures again struggle to a high near 36.  Recent trends are now suggestive our next “weak” system moves in a touch faster spreading moisture into our skies by late evening with just enough lift to develop some precipitation.  Temperatures look marginal by mid to late evening for all snow or all rain at this point.  I will jump on this recent trend and add a 30% chance of a late wintry mix Wednesday evening for either rain, sleet or some wet snow.

Wednesday night into Thursday, temperatures will cool and saturation in the favored snow growth region will occur for a brief time.  Any wintry mix in the area should change to all light snow for a period.  It’s entirely possible a dusting to inch of snow could fall in parts of the viewing area by early Thursday.  If trends hold, some slick spots would be possible for the Thursday morning commute.

Forecast clouds and radar Wednesday late evening  (blue is snow)

Forecast clouds and radar Wednesday late evening (blue is snow)

Forecast clouds and radar Thursday morning

Forecast clouds and radar Thursday morning

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

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