Suchan Says: Look at Storm Chances and Severe Risk

We’ll enjoy a pleasant evening across the area with dry conditions and just scattered clouds.  Temperatures are pleasantly mild with a touch of humidity in the air ready to make for a comfortable evening out.  Later tonight and I’m talking after midnight, scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely return to the area.  Fortunately, severe weather potential overnight is very low.  Certainly an isolated stronger storm with small hail, frequent lightning and downpours is possible.

The focus for severe weather Saturday will be in central to western Kansas (Oklahoma, eastern Colorado to southwestern Nebraska as well).  This region is in closer proximity to a developing area of low pressure on the lee-side of the Rockies.  The combination of instability and strong wind shear will likely combine for a widespread severe weather day in this region with large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes all likely.

By late afternoon, these aggressive storms shift into central Kansas with the severe weather risk shifting east as well.  By the time they arrive in our area in the evening to Saturday night, there will be an isolated severe risk for large hail and wind gusts but the overall intensity of the storms will be decreasing.

Sunday could be a different ballgame by the afternoon.  Some sunshine combined with impressive wind shear would promote supercell development “IF” storms pop in our area which I expect.  Very large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado would be possible should this scenario unfold.  We’ll be watching closely!

Here are some forecast images highlighting rain chances and severe potential.

Saturday Morning... some showers or thunderstorms possible to start the day

Saturday Morning… some showers or thunderstorms possible to start the day

Saturday early to mid afternoon... just scattered showers or a t-storm locally.  Heavier storms out west

Saturday early to mid afternoon… just scattered showers or a t-storm locally. Heavier storms out west

Saturday early evening... storms in central Kansas along with severe potential

Saturday early evening… storms in central Kansas along with severe potential

Storms moving into the area late evening...  isolated severe potential for hail and strong wind gusts

Storms moving into the area late evening… isolated severe potential for hail and strong wind gusts

Sunday Afternoon / evening... watching for pop up strong to severe storms

Sunday Afternoon / evening… watching for pop up strong to severe storms

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl

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