Suchan Says: Friday T-Storm Chances

We enjoyed a string of pleasant days with “low humidity”.  That has now all changed after our gentle soaking rain from the past 24 hours with much of the area seeing a solid .50″ to almost 1″ of rain (a few spots had a little less).  That rain served a purpose in the forecast for the days ahead as humidity is now back in place and factors into our thunderstorm forecasts.

Friday should start with only a small chance for a shower or thunderstorm in the area.  Northern sections seem most likely to see a few showers or storms to start the day while most of the region enjoys a drier morning commute.

I’m watching an upper air disturbance zipping across New Mexico / Texas generating showers and thunderstorms this evening.  It is forecast to work across our skies during the afternoon and will be the trigger needed for scattered thunderstorms.

Watching upper air impulse moving our way.  Arrives Friday afternoon

Watching upper air impulse moving our way. Arrives Friday afternoon

A look over afternoon charts shows a potentially moderate to strongly unstable atmosphere if we see decent breaks of sunshine.  Temperatures will warm to the upper 70s to lower 80s with humid conditions.  Based on this, I can’t rule out a few strong storms with possibly a severe thunderstorm with large hail and brief wind gusts.  The main window for this would be the afternoon into the first part of the evening.

Storm Risk Index for Friday afternoon to evening

Storm Risk Index for Friday afternoon to evening

Here is Friday’s hour by hour forecast for planning purposes.

Patchy morning clouds.  Isolated shower or T-storm possible

Patchy morning clouds. Isolated shower or T-storm possible

Scattered afternoon showers or T-Storms possible

Scattered afternoon showers or T-Storms possible

Lingering shower or T-Storm chance into early evening

Lingering shower or T-Storm chance into early evening

Scattered clouds and drier by late evening

Scattered clouds and drier by late evening

First game against the Yankees at the K... slight chance for a lingering shower or storm early especially for parking and tailgating before the game

First game against the Yankees at the K… slight chance for a lingering shower or storm early especially for parking and tailgating before the game

Saturday starts with mostly cloudy skies and a small chance for a morning shower or thunderstorm.  During the afternoon, skies become partly sunny to variably cloudy with a 30% chance of a few showers or storms.  Meanwhile, thunderstorms are developing in western – central Kansas closer to a large upper trough pushing out of the Rockies.  These storms out west will move into our area by late evening to Saturday night (60% chance) in a gradual weakening trend.  That said, I still expect an isolated severe risk for large hail or damaging wind gusts as these storms arrive after 9pm.  A higher risk for severe storms will exist to our west across central Kansas.

We’ll of course keep you updated with any changes to this forecast should the system speed up or slow down.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl

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