Suchan Says: Active Pattern Remains

After a record cold day Wednesday where temperatures were stuck in the lower to mid 50s, we’ll return to more sunshine Thursday for a boost in temperatures but even 60s are well below average for this time of the year.

More importantly though, it’s a dry day.  Sure, there could be a few patches of morning fog with low visibility and mist in the area but a mostly sunny afternoon will build in across the area as highs reach the mid 60s.

Friday has a pesky upper air impulse moving toward the region from the west.  A large area of rain will develop in western / central Kansas and weaken as it pushes into our skies.  But I will continue with a 20% chance of a couple rain showers surviving the trip into the area.  High temperatures again stay on the cooler side in the mid 60s.

Looking at the weekend forecast…

Saturday will certainly have some scattered showers or a few thunderstorms but I also see big stretches of the day with NO rain.  I’m calling it a variably cloudy day where we get some sun but also times of cloudiness and a 50% chance of rain.  Highs will climb to near 70.

Saturday Night into Sunday looks to be the most active stretch over the 3-day holiday weekend.  I’ve taken the rain chance to 80% as deep moisture and lift spread in over the area.  This is the day I envision for some indoor activities at times.  Highs only in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Memorial Day Monday should become partly sunny but I’ll hold on to a 40% chance of some showers or thunderstorms.  Still, a much nicer day for outdoor plans compared to Sunday!  Sure there is a rain chance but there are also patches of the day w/ little more than partly cloudy skies.

Severe Risk is pretty low over the weekend but localized flooding is elevated with downpours possible.

Looking ahead there are some signs of finally a summer pattern ahead!  But it may take till the first week of June to truly move in.  I see some 80s next week but days of 90 or hotter should arrive in 2 to 3 weeks if current trends hold the way I see it.

Early June showing above normal temperatures out west for a change and moving closer to our area

Early June showing above normal temperatures out west for a change and moving closer to our area

While not a big fan of looking out 16 days on the GFS, I do believe it tells a story as a pattern shift is likely to unfold

While not a big fan of looking out 16 days on the GFS, I do believe it tells a story as a pattern shift is likely to unfold

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl

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