Hawila’s Heads-Up: Strong Storm Risk Tonight

The Storm Prediction Center’s afternoon outlook places more of our viewing area under both a marginal and slight risk for severe storms this evening.

OUTLOOK

We are not anticipating widespread severe storms this evening, but a strong to severe storm or two cannot be ruled out. The severe risk locally will remain isolated in nature this evening. HRRR model has pains storm chances increasing after 7 PM this evening. Here’s a look at simulated radar from the 18Z run of HRRR at 7 PM central time. Notice a few storms showing up northwest of the metro. Like all models, this output can’t be taken “as the gospel.” We’ll have to monitor the trends this afternoon closely.

HRRR

A view of visible satellite this afternoon shows a few storms developing in southern Kansas. These storms are lifting north-northeast. We’re monitoring these as the develop, and we expect more storms to our west to start bubbling up later this afternoon and into the evening.

sat

Forecast Track shows the chances for showers and a few storms continuing through the end of the evening. Again, the main threat for severe storms is virtually along and west of Interstates 35 and 49.

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Any severe storms this evening have the potential to produce damaging winds, some large hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado. The tornado threat is LOW this evening, but it can’t be ruled out especially in far NE Kansas and far NW MO

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