Suchan Says: Heat, Humidity and T-Storms

It’s looking more and more like a more typical pattern of warmth and humidity is ready to build in across the area.  For the first time in a while, I full expect to see most areas go above 80 degrees Wednesday with an uptick in humidity and also a chance for thunderstorms once again.

First, a quick look at temperatures.  I have a wide range in forecast highs Wednesday with northern sections in the mid 70s to near 80 with a higher chance of showers or storms.  Metro climbs to the lower to mid 80s and mid to perhaps a few upper 80s possible to the south and southwest of the metro.

If latest image off the RAP computer model verifies, a few spots in our western and southwestern zones could flirt with the upper 80s!!

RAP's forecast temperatures Wednesday afternoon

RAP’s forecast temperatures Wednesday afternoon

Tonight, there are two features I’m keying in on for morning t-storm chances.  A tiny upper air disturbance in northwest Missouri that may fire up a few late night showers or storms and a cluster of storms in Nebraska that could push toward our northwestern zones just before sunrise.

Two areas I'm watching for possible early showers or storms (mainly north half)

Two areas I’m watching for possible early showers or storms (mainly north half)

The chance of showers or storms in the morning will run around 30% with a heavy lean on areas north from downtown Kansas City.  The rest of the area looks mild and humid with scattered clouds and a very isolated rain chance.

During the afternoon, the higher rain chance remains from I-70 north to Iowa.  That’s not to say we do not have a chance for rain south of I-70 as we certainly do but the chance is closer to 20% to 30% late day.

Few showers or storms possible in the morning mainly northern half of the area... in this image, could be underdone on coverage up north

Few showers or storms possible in the morning mainly northern half of the area… in this image, could be underdone on coverage up north

Late afternoon to early evening scattered storms possible

Late afternoon to early evening scattered storms possible

Early to mid evening scattered showers or storms possible

Early to mid evening scattered showers or storms possible

Showers and storms dissipate with loss of heating late evening

Showers and storms dissipate with loss of heating late evening

As far as severe potential, I certainly can’t rule out a few strong to severe storms based on the degree of instability I see in various computer models.  The atmosphere should become fairly unstable and any storm in this environment could quickly pulse up to produce large hail and brief strong wind gusts.

Thursday and Friday also feature a 40% chance of showers and storms.  The only difference, I believe all areas share in the same rain chance versus Wednesday which is stacked in the northern half of the area.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
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