Suchan Says: 11:20pm Weather Update

Showers and storms developing along Nebraska - Kansas line.  Will track into our skies overnight

Showers and storms developing along Nebraska – Kansas line. Will track into our skies overnight

The expected development of showers and storms near the Nebraska to Kansas line is underway.  Eventually these showers and storms will get more of a push to the east into our area with particular emphasis on the northern half of the area (I-70 to Iowa).  Severe risk is pretty low tonight with localized flooding the primary concern.  Flash Flood Watch remains active through Thursday morning and could very well be extended deeper into the day depending on how storms trend.

Morning showers and storms.... admittedly, there could be more rain than seen from this computer model

Morning showers and storms…. admittedly, there could be more rain than seen from this computer model

A different computer model vantage point of morning rain chances.  *** Note the heavy lean on the northern half of the area ***

A different computer model vantage point of morning rain chances. *** Note the heavy lean on the northern half of the area ***

Late morning to midday showers and storms still linger in the area

Late morning to midday showers and storms still linger in the area

Potential for late day showers and storms

Potential for late day showers and storms

Keep in mind, there are pockets of the area that may end up seeing very little rain much like Wednesday.  Not everyone saw 1 to 5 inches of rain.  In this kind of pattern, the overall nature of the convective forecast is rather chaotic on where storms want to fire and move.  We’re not tracking a coherent area of low pressure across the western half of the country with easy to pin down rain chances, etc.  Instead, it’s the famous late spring mesoscale convective system forecast (MCS) where multiple storms organize into a complex or system, develop a strong cold pool of air and start accelerating out in one direction depending on where the best inflow of warm, moist air resides to feed off of.

Watch the next couple of days across the middle of the country and you’ll see multiple convective storm complexes rumbling about.  They all bring severe wind potential assuming the atmosphere is not worked over and rain-cooled with a build up of instability…  and they certainly bring localized flooding concerns.

This pattern should ease up early next week.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl 

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