Suchan Says: Relentless Pattern in Place

Early day MCS (mesoscale convective system) moving into the viewing area

Early day MCS (mesoscale convective system) moving into the viewing area

That was short!!  So much for a few days without significant rain in the area.  Early day storms were organized into a cluster or complex we refer to as a mesoscale convective system (MCS).  When they roll through, they can bring severe wind gusts, some hail and torrential rainfall as we all saw earlier today!!  Fortunately the early day MCS moved in before we could reach peak heating otherwise we likely would have seen a few more severe wind reports.  Instead, it was flash flooding that dominated the early day MCS.

Daily rainfall record at KCI today

Daily rainfall record at KCI today

Area rain reports

Area rain reports

As I look at the pattern ahead Thursday, Friday and possibly Saturday… I see multiple MCS’s developing in the Plains to Midwest and I’m afraid we are certainly in their potential path.  After a 1″ to 5″ rain in the area (some saw less), another 1″ to 5″ of rain is possible in a pattern like this.

Plains to Midwest will be busy with clusters of storms next several days

Plains to Midwest will be busy with clusters of storms next several days

Keep in mind, if we are able to heat up to near 80 or warmer over the next couple of days, these storms or complex of storms to move through could also bring severe wind gusts and hail.

Flash Flood Watch in effect

Flash Flood Watch in effect

Mainly dry evening... storms fire late to our west and move in tonight

Mainly dry evening… storms fire late to our west and move in tonight

Another round of storms possible Thursday afternoon

Another round of storms possible Thursday afternoon

Forecast Track rain amounts Thursday and Friday  (gives a rough idea of what's ahead although locations with precise rainfall amounts could change depending on where storms track)

Forecast Track rain amounts Thursday and Friday (gives a rough idea of what’s ahead although locations with precise rainfall amounts could change depending on where storms track)

This overall pattern may shift south early next week providing the area with some relief.  I’m cautiously lowering rain chances Monday and Tuesday with this in mind.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl

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