Suchan Says: 2:25am Update on Rain and Storms

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** Update **

Strongest storms are moving southeast of the metro and are still capable of brief strong wind gusts, some hail, frequent lightning and torrential rainfall.  Additional showers and thunderstorms are developing northwest of the KC metro and will likely push southeast over next several hours.

The Storm Prediction Center does not anticipate issuing a Severe T-Storm Watch given the isolated severe risk in place per their most recent discussion.

 

** Earlier Blog Post from 11:20pm **

Another stormy night is on the way with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area.  While I do not expect as intense a cluster of storms as we saw late last week with damaging winds, I do expect at least an isolated risk for a couple stronger storms with brief wind gusts and frequent lightning.  Of a higher concern is the potential for locally heavy rain and flooding potential.  Despite a few relatively dry days, we simply cannot handle an abundance of water in a short amount of time which you traditionally find from thunderstorms.

Forecast rain amounts tonight through Wednesday evening

Forecast rain amounts tonight through Wednesday evening

Flash Flood Watch for our eastern counties

Flash Flood Watch for our eastern third of counties

As a quick moving disturbance passes overhead tonight and combines with a developing low level jet across the Plains to Midwest, we should see a gradual increase in the coverage of showers and storms through tonight.  A few storms may cluster together and bow out with brief wind gusts through daybreak.

Rain chances will dip to 20% by early afternoon before the atmosphere recharges for a round of scattered thunderstorms later in the afternoon to early evening.  We will need to monitor these late day storms as there will be some potential for strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts.  Of interest to me, will the Storm Prediction Center upgrade some of our counties up into the I-70 corridor into at least a “slight risk” for severe storms.  Right now a “Marginal Risk” covers this corridor but I see some potential for an increase to this outlook.  We’ll find out in the next update around or prior to 1:00am.

High temperatures Wednesday will struggle into midday before bigger breaks of sun work in for a quick spike into the mid to upper 80s.

Wednesday Planner Forecast

Wednesday Planner Forecast

Tonight:  Showers and thunderstorms

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms

Early Morning:  Showers and thunderstorms

Early Morning: Showers and thunderstorms

Early Afternoon:  Isolated rain chance

Early Afternoon: Isolated rain chance

Late Afternoon to Early Evening:  Scattered pop up storms (could be strong to severe)

Late Afternoon to Early Evening: Scattered pop up storms (could be strong to severe)

4th of July

As of right now, it appears we could time out the pattern just right to usher in a briefly drier stretch of weather Saturday where the rain chance dips to an isolated 20% chance with partly sunny skies.  I’m feeling optimistic about decent weather as we head into the evening with nothing more than a stray storm or two anywhere in the viewing area.  Highs around 84 which is an added bonus provided this forecast remains as is 🙂

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl

 

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