Suchan Says: When We’ll See Next Round of Storms

High pressure from Canada pushing rain, clouds out of the area

High pressure from Canada pushing rain, clouds out of the area

After a miserable week for our area with heavy storms, we’re finally going to catch a break into the weekend and that “break” has already begun!  What a great Friday it turned out to be as drier, cooler Canadian air has been surging south into our area.

Humidity levels remain unseasonably low through Saturday making for not only ideal outdoor conditions from a comfort standpoint but also ensuring we see a ton of sun for Independence Day Saturday!  Skies stay mostly sunny with very light winds and temperatures start in the 50s to lower 60s followed by a quick warm up to the lower to mid 80s!

Temperatures will cool into sunset back to the upper 70s.  Sunset is 8:49pm.

Sunday has a very small wrinkle to the forecast.  The Canadian air mass will be exiting stage right allowing humidity and heat to pump back into the viewing area.  At the same time, clusters of thunderstorms are likely moving south from central Nebraska into central Kansas.  While this is west of our viewing area, I can’t rule out one or two of these storms clipping our western half of the area (eastern Kansas) Sunday.  But I will not go higher than 20% chance of rain given what I’m seeing from the various computer models.  Temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s to near 90 in spots.

We need to plan on seeing widespread showers and thunderstorms move back in Monday as our next cold front slides in late day.  It will not rain all day Monday with the bulk of the day’s rain and storms arriving later in the afternoon into Monday night.

As for severe potential, wind shear is very lackluster for organized severe storms.  Instability is mediocre but is present.  While a few stronger storms are possible (likely below severe criteria), I believe localized heavy rain will be our main concern.

Saturday afternoon.... mostly sunny skies!

Saturday afternoon…. mostly sunny skies!

Sunday morning... watching western sections for an isolated shower or storm

Sunday morning… watching western sections for an isolated shower or storm

Sunday afternoon... mostly to partly sunny, hot with only an isolated t-storm possible

Sunday afternoon… mostly to partly sunny, hot with only an isolated t-storm possible

Monday morning... cold front to northwest brings late day showers / storms

Monday morning… cold front to northwest brings late day showers / storms

Have a wonderful 4th of July weekend!!!

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl

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