Suchan Says: 2:30pm Update – Stormy Evening Ahead

Scattered storms are ongoing in northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas at this time with hot sunshine south of these storms.  A cold front will gradually slide into the KC metro this evening and in the process, storms will shift southeast across all areas that have seen a hot, dry day.  If you have evening plans, plan on needing rain gear for a good stretch of the evening.

Scattered storms across the northern half of the area "right now"

Scattered storms across the northern half of the area “right now”

There is some severe risk as well given the heat and humidity of the day.  The main risks would be brief strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail.  There isn’t much of a tornado risk given poor wind shear in place across the area (directional and speed shear are weak).

Storm Prediction Center currently has a 40% chance of a Severe T-Storm Watch being issued.  The percentage is not higher given would could end up being more of an isolated severe risk.  I suspect we will see a Severe T-Storm Watch issued however given the instability in place.

** Flash flooding will be a concern across our area with this next round of storminess.  Some areas could easily pick up in excess of 2″ of rainfall.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect.

Storm Prediction Center's 40% chance of a Severe T-Storm Watch being issued

Storm Prediction Center’s 40% chance of a Severe T-Storm Watch being issued

Here’s a rain / storm timeline on when they’ll push southeast across the rest of the viewing area.  Note the further southeast you are from the metro, the longer they’ll take to arrive but they will in the end.  No one is spared evening rain.

Late Afternoon scattered showers and storms

Late Afternoon scattered showers and storms

Early evening showers and storms

Early evening showers and storms

Mid evening showers and storms

Mid evening showers and storms

Late evening cloudy with showers and leftover thunder

Late evening cloudy with showers and leftover thunder

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl

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