Suchan Says: Look at Weekend Rain Chances

All in all, a pretty decent weekend is ahead although there will be some showers and thunderstorms that will have to move through before we get to next Monday.

As of right now, Saturday is still the nicer of the two days but that’s not to say Sunday is a washout, horrendous day for outdoor activities.  In fact, some stretches of Sunday should be little more than partly sunny to variably cloudy.

Watching a couple areas of rain back to our west

Watching a couple areas of rain back to our west / northwest

Lets take a look at Saturday first.  I’m watching a couple areas of showers and thunderstorms back to our west and northwest.  While this activity will weaken as it moves toward our area, I believe enough of a weak disturbance aloft associated with this rain will arrive and be able to generate at least “isolated” showers and a few thunderstorms early Saturday morning.  I do not expect severe weather should a few spots pick up on a t-storm.  I won’t go higher than 20% right now based on mixed signals I see from various models as to the coverage of rain.  Some models suggest very little will fall in the area while others are more aggressive.

Any morning showers or t-storms would quickly move out of the area opening the door to a hot afternoon with temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 90s.  It will feel a solid 10 to 13 degrees hotter when you factor in the humidity.

Saturday Morning:  Some showers or a t-storm possible early

Saturday Morning: Some showers or a t-storm possible early

Saturday Afternoon:  Hot sunshine with scattered clouds

Saturday Afternoon: Hot sunshine with scattered clouds

By the evening, isolated pop up showers or a t-storm are possible but no higher than a 20% chance as I type tonight.  Chances will increase later Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Saturday Evening:  isolated showers or a t-storm possible

Saturday Evening: isolated showers or a t-storm possible

Saturday's Planner Forecast

Saturday’s Planner Forecast

Sunday has a solid 40% chance of showers or thunderstorms but is NOT a washout of a day.  I see big stretches of the day where it could be nothing more than a mix of clouds and sun.  That said, there is a cool front moving through during the day and it will ensure a better chance for showers or a thunderstorm of the two weekend days.

Severe potential is there given the amount of instability present as temperatures warm into the 80s to even low 90s in southern sections.  There are some signs many of the afternoon t-storms that develop would be behind the actual cold front and if that’s the case, stronger storms would mainly produce hail, frequent lightning and localized flooding potential.

Sunday Morning:  Chance of showers or t-storms

Sunday Morning: Chance of showers or t-storms

Sunday afternoon:  Variably cloudy with a few more showers or a t-storm

Sunday afternoon: Variably cloudy with a few more showers or a t-storm

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl

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