Suchan Says: Summer Heat and Storms Ahead

The next couple of days will be our warmest or even hottest days of this week before another strong September cold front arrives Friday.

Wednesday will be kept as a dry, windy and warmer day.  While we’ll likely see some occasional passing clouds mix with sunny skies, I expect the area to remain dry with a lack of a strong trigger to develop storms.  Highs will reach near 87.

Thursday or “Red Thursday” is flat out hot.  The approaching cold front is still well west of the area and we will find ourselves locked into a strong warm sector ahead of the cold front and a gusty south – southwest wind.  Temperatures will easily reach the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

The big question and concern, how is that forecast looking for the Chiefs game in the evening.  There is reason for optimism in the forecast as far as keeping rain away but we’re not of the woods just yet late in the evening.  One computer model is still trying to pop up a shower or storm near the stadium late in the second half.  That said, the consensus of weather models keep rain chances well north of Arrowhead and this is my current lean.

I expect the best chance of a shower or storm Thursday to occur in our northern zones whether early in the day or in the evening.

Analysis of the NAM computer model Thursday evening

Analysis of the NAM computer model Thursday evening

Thursday Afternoon:  Hot, windy and mostly sunny

Thursday Afternoon: Hot, windy and mostly sunny

Thursday Mid-Evening:  Few showers or storms up north

Thursday Mid-Evening: Few showers or storms up north

Thursday Late Evening:  Isolated rain chance as far south as the northern metro

Thursday Late Evening: Isolated rain chance still mainly in northern sections

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Friday is the day circled this week for a high probability of showers and storms as the next scheduled cold front arrives late in the day.  There may be clusters of showers and storms early Friday morning.  Whatever we do see in the area early should dissipate into a partly sunny sky for a time around early afternoon.  Temperatures will spike into the mid 80s in response.

As we approach late afternoon and into the evening, increasingly stronger dynamics will push into the area coupled with an unstable atmosphere.  This combination should lend itself to the development of storms and some could be heavy with hail and brief strong wind gusts.  We’ll need to watch far northern sections near the track of the surface low where a little more turning of the winds is possible as you move closer to the Iowa border for an isolated tornado risk.  We will continue to fine tune this forecast as there certainly is enough on the table for severe storms.

Here are a couple images off the NAM computer model showing this corridor of showers / storms moving in Friday.

NAM computer model analysis Friday early afternoon.  Looking at deep layer lift / moisture

NAM computer model analysis Friday early afternoon. Looking at deep layer lift / moisture

NAM computer model analysis Friday early evening.  Looking at deep layer lift / moisture

NAM computer model analysis Friday early evening. Looking at deep layer lift / moisture

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/timeline/?ref=hl

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