Suchan Says: Red Thursday Forecast & a Stormy Friday Ahead

Late tonight through sunrise Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will likely develop in northern Kansas and move east into Missouri through sunrise and much of the morning.  The most likely zone for showers or a thunderstorm will be near and north of I-70 from 5am – 11am.

By the afternoon, skies turn mostly to partly sunny and temperatures will be heating up quickly to near 90 with a gusty south wind.  Any rain chance late in the afternoon to early evening will be confined to far northern Missouri especially into Iowa.

As we head into the evening forecast when all eyes are on Arrowhead Stadium, we should have dry conditions in place for the tailgate and kickoff.  Frankly much of the game looks dry.  Any rain chance in the evening is confined to after 10:00pm and would be isolated.  For this reason, I’ll continue with a very low end 10% chance of rain near the 4th quarter of the game going up to 20% if the game should go into overtime.

Here are some images showing the rain timeline along with the temperature forecast.

Thursday Morning:  Some showers / thunder moving into the area (especially north half)

Thursday Morning: Some showers / thunder moving into the area (especially north half)

Thursday Midday:  Partly cloudy with a slight rain chance

Thursday Midday: Partly cloudy with a slight rain chance

Thursday Late Afternoon:  Hot and windy

Thursday Late Afternoon: Hot and windy

Thursday Evening:  Dry and very warm

Thursday Evening: Dry and very warm approaching kickoff

Thursday Late Evening:  Looks mainly dry but some computer models do develop a couple t-showers in the area after 10pm (we need to use caution)

Thursday Late Evening: Looks mainly dry but some computer models do develop a couple t-showers in the area after 10pm (we need to use caution)

Tonight's forecast for Thursday evening's game

Tonight’s forecast for Thursday evening’s game

Friday remains the busier day of the week as a strong cold front arrives late day.  While we’ll see some breaks of sun, there’s a solid 70% chance of showers and storms.  Unfortunately latest guidance continues to develop a decent amount of instability along with wind shear.  This combination would certainly support some severe storms with large hail, strong wind gusts.  I cannot rule out a very isolated quick spin-up tornado risk in far northern sections near the track of the surface low as well.  We’ll watch this forecast closely for you.

Here’s a panel off tonight’s NAM computer model run showing a strong convective signature over us Friday.

Deep layer lift / moisture off NAM model late Friday

Deep layer lift / moisture off NAM model late Friday

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/timeline/?ref=hl

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