Suchan Says: Locked Into Cool Pattern, Hurricane East Coast?!

We’re entering our first stretch of true autumn cool weather straight into the weekend.  Chilly nights followed by cool to pleasantly mild afternoons.  It’s also increasingly looking drier and drier to the point I’m almost ready to pull the plug on the low end 20% chance of rain Saturday.  A daily diet of temperatures each afternoon in the 60s and lower 60s by Saturday with morning lows in the lower to mid 40s will take us into the first weekend of October.

The overall pattern may become increasingly dominated by a very large trough along the East Coast absorbing what should be Hurricane Joaquin into the weekend.  Modeling is trending toward a solution where this large trough is able to push enough cool, dry air into our area to keep any showers or rumbles of thunder out to our west away from the region.

On that note, it’s a very plausible scenario for the East Coast of a landfalling hurricane by late in the weekend or early next week.  Some of our medium to long range modeling is suggestive of a favorable mid to upper level flow pattern to pull the tropical system north then turn it northwest possibly into the Mid Atlantic as the “hurricane” slingshots around the upper level trough into the coast.  Certainly a situation that generates news headlines with beach erosion, some wind damage, coastal flooding, flash flooding rains and a few tornadoes along the eastern seaboard.

Here are some recent GFS panels from tonight’s most recent run showing the possible scenario ahead.

850mb temperatures & flow pattern.  Can spot Joaquin in the far right of this panel late tomorrow

850mb temperatures & flow pattern. Can spot Joaquin in the far right of this panel late tomorrow

850mb temperatures and flow pattern late Friday

850mb temperatures and flow pattern late Friday

500mb flow pattern... can see the upper level trough in the Southeast ready to steer Joaquin north

500mb flow pattern… can see the upper level trough in the Southeast ready to steer Joaquin north

500mb flow pattern... Joaquin given an escort around the upper level trough right into the East Coast

500mb flow pattern… Joaquin given an escort around the upper level trough right into the East Coast

850mb temperatures & flow pattern...   Joaquin along the East Coast.  Cool - dry air circulating into the Midwest

850mb temperatures & flow pattern… Joaquin along the East Coast. Cool – dry air circulating into the Midwest

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/timeline/?ref=hl

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