Hawila’s Heads-Up: Smooth Sailing Monday

Our picture-perfect weekend is coming to a close, but the beautiful weather will hang around a bit longer. After another chilly start to the workweek, things warm up nicely with lots of sunshine.

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We still have out attention turned to this Wednesday. Current data continues to suggest the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms in our area. As a potent system begins to take shape out west, it’s expected to rapidly deepen and blast through the Midwest this Veterans’ Day. While instability will very likely remain on the low end, robust wind shear/dynamics (expected to be present with this Wednesday’s system) often times can compensate for lackluster instability. Roaring winds near the surface and aloft will aid storms in becoming strong to severe. Timing is everything with this system. There’s still quite a bit of uncertainty with the coverage and magnitude of the potential severe weather event. The same goes for the exact zone most at risk. Below is the latest SPC outlook for Wednesday. Keep checking back this week. There is a good chance the area outlooked most at risk will shift around a bit based on more trustworthy data and analysis. Either way, plan on a very breezy day Wednesday even outside of thunderstorms. Gusts will likely approach 45+ MPH as the system passes just to our north.

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