Suchan Says: Cruise Control Autumn Weather Before Next Big System

We have a few outstanding days ahead of us for outdoor plans before the next big system arrives in our forecast.  Friday will offer up a nice break from recent strong wind gusts with only a light southerly breeze.  We’ll see full sunshine and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s around the area.

Saturday could very well be the nicest day of the next three days ahead.  Sunny skies with a big warm up into the mid 60s likely.  Breezes will kick up a bit Saturday but should still be manageable.

Sunday starts with some sunshine but cloudiness from the south will begin to spread north into our skies.  I expect skies to become mostly cloudy in the afternoon and especially the evening.  This will keep high temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s with a gusty wind at times.

Rain should hold off until near midnight heading into Sunday night and some of Monday.

Easy to see when next system pushes into the area

Easy to see when next system pushes into the area

Another deep trough will move east toward the area late Monday into Tuesday of next week.  This system will be slower than the one that came through this past Wednesday and may actually take through Wednesday night to finally kick out of the area.  At this time, severe storm risk should stay south of our viewing area but we will want to keep tabs on any changes to the track in the days ahead.  At this point, the consensus of modeling favors a zone from far southern Missouri to the Gulf Coast for a risk of severe weather.

I do expect some thunderstorms to occur in the area.  At this time, the severe risk while not at zero percent is on the lower side.  There should be enough cold air in western Kansas into Colorado to support a zone of rain or snow changing to all snow.  In eastern Kansas to Missouri, temperatures will be significantly warmer in the 60s most likely.

GFS panel showing 500mb vorticity and flow pattern

GFS panel of 500mb vorticity

GFS panel analyzing deep layer moisture / lift with trough coming at us

GFS panel analyzing deep layer moisture / lift with trough coming at us

Expectations for next system Tuesday

Expectations for next system Tuesday

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=hl

Advertisements

There are no comments on this post.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: