Suchan Says: Record Rain, Falling Temps and Some Ice?

Clouds are locked in place and areas of drizzle are now showing up on radar around the area.  This trend of drizzle or light rain showers developing through the area the rest of this evening into tonight will continue creating wet streets.  The good news however for last minute errands to run, it’s not a heavy variety of rain like we’ll see Thursday.

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Drizzle or light showers this evening

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Drizzle or showers Thanksgiving Morning

Speaking of Thanksgiving, what a wild day of weather!  We start mild in the 50s and 60s with drizzle or showers in the area.  Through midday, temperatures hold on the mild side but a sharp drop in temperatures will kick in from north to south by late morning.  While this is occurring, a heavy rain will be enveloping the viewing area with a gusty wind at times.

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Afternoon – Evening widespread heavy rain on Thanksgiving

Temperatures will fall from the lower 60s in the metro to the mid 30s by late evening if you’re going to be out.  Rain gear and a heavier coat are strongly advised.

The amount of rain expected?  A daily rainfall record to be sure!  The current record is 1.19″ set in 1896 and this mark will fall easily.  A solid 1.50″ to 3.00″ rainfall is expected across the area creating some water rises on streams, creeks and rivers in the area.

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Impressive rainfall projections from our in-house computer model

The chance for freezing rain is confined to northwestern parts of the area late day as the colder air is surging in.  It will be a race against the clock for the cold air trying to catch the back edge of the heavier rain.  Given this scenario, confidence for ice build up decreases quite a bit as you travel southeast from Nebraska where ice glazing is more likely.  The National Weather Service has issued a precautionary Winter Storm Watch for our northwestern zones and will make a decision on whether to go with a warning or just an advisory as we get deeper into the forecast.

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Light ice glazing possible to west – northwest of the KC metro (mainly elevated surfaces)

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Very light freezing rain or freezing drizzle likely to the west – northwest from metro late evening into Thursday night

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Winter Storm Watch for our northwestern counties

Right now, I expect mainly wet roads through the area and certainly the metro but some light ice glazing on elevated surfaces to the northwest of the metro or to the west is a possibility especially as temperatures dip below freezing and drizzle occurs Thursday night.

Friday looks cloudy with times of light rain or even a touch of light freezing rain especially in the western half of the area.  Deeper into central Missouri, temperatures are safely above freezing.  Any ice build up we would see Friday afternoon would be very light and again, mainly on elevated surfaces.  Roads during the day are wet around the area with temperatures hovering from 32 – 37 across the entire viewing area.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=hl

 

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