Suchan Says: More Warmth but Changes Ahead

The incredibly warm start to December continues Thursday, Friday and even much of Saturday before weather changes unfold.

Thursday actually starts with a morning low well above a typical daytime high temperature!!  I expect to see 45 – 50 across the area through sunrise with partly cloudy skies and a gusty south breeze!  A rare morning where coats are optional for some.  Don’t get to say that very often this time of the year.

By the afternoon, mostly sunny skies with highs into the mid 60s in the metro and some upper 60s to the south.

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Forecast highs compared to average and record highs

Friday is another very mild day but it does come with a bit of patchy cloudiness.  A batch of low clouds may move in allowing for only a few breaks of sun.  In fact, a few sprinkles may accompany these low clouds.  This cloudiness is actually a sign of things to come as moisture from the south begins pumping north setting the stage for a rain event over the weekend.

Saturday looks to be fairly cloudy with any hope of sun confined to a few small breaks.  Morning sprinkles or drizzle are possible as well.  By the afternoon into Saturday night, a more widespread rain will develop with even some thunder possible in spots.  There will be a large range in temperatures Saturday with mid 40s likely to the northwest with mid to upper 60s in our southeastern zones.

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Rain spreading in late day with thunder possible in spots

Rain continues Saturday night into Sunday with falling temperatures underway by Sunday morning dropping into the lower to mid 40s.  During the afternoon, I do not expect much movement with highs stuck in the mid 40s.  Showers or drizzle will continue much of the afternoon.

Any chance for winter weather would be confined to the back edge of the rain where marginally cold air could allow for a few snowflakes to mix in before ending.  No accumulation expected and roads will be just wet through the weekend.

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Chilly showers Sunday with some mix possible on western – northwestern edge of the system

Next week brings a shift in the overall pattern as very cold air bottled way up north near the Arctic begins to slowly spread south.  While I do not expect brutally cold arctic air, something that feels more like mid December is likely to spill south into the Plains and Midwest.

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Warm pattern across the country

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Starting to feel more like December later next week

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Temperature trend ahead compared to average

The next question on many minds, what about snow chances.  Well I will certainly say the pattern and degree of cold sinking south are much more favorable and warrant some attention.  The storm track will be hammering into the West Coast straight into next week with much of this energy diving into the southern tier of the country as it moves east.  The latest GFS computer model run (American model) attempts to develop a surface low to our south by Wednesday night – Thursday along the strong thermal gradient to the south which pushes some snow into the area.

The ECMWF (European model) is much drier Thursday with only weak energy skirting the area Friday with flurries or a few snow showers.  BUT STILL, some snowflakes.  The next run from the ECMWF comes out before long for some review and we’ll see if it mirrors the most recent GFS run this evening.

Here are some images for comparison along with analysis.

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GFS image showing deep layer lift / moisture. Yellow & Red lines are thickness contours showing where snow, mix or just rain is most likely. North of both lines is snow

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ECMWF MSLP map for next Thursday does not support the latest GFS

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ECMWF generating a few snowflakes next Friday instead… (next model run updates around and shortly after midnight)

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=hl

 

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