Hawila’s Heads-Up: Very Busy Forecast

We have a lot to track and discuss in the weather department over the next few days. Let’s start with what’s going on tonight. Rain has overspread much of the area with some pockets of heavier rain embedded in this mess of moisture.

blogblog_4This rain is just round number 1 from this storm system. A majority of the precipitation form this first round will remain just rain, with the exception of a brief period of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain very early Sunday morning. This is NOT expected to create many issues with travel in and around the metro Sunday. Just watch for a few slick spots mainly on elevated surfaces.

A second punch from this system occurs Sunday. More rain is expected to be ongoing mainly along, and south of the I-70 corridor. Forecast Track shows the precipitation falling in that area with highs expected to creep into the middle 30s.

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The main event moves into our area Sunday night through Monday. This is when wintry weather becomes a big concern for parts of the viewing area. The exact track of this storm system is still in question and the KCTV5 viewing area lies in a poor position where all precip types are on the table. So, please keep in mind, even the smallest 30-50 mile shift in this system can change the forecast dramatically. At this time, it does appear much of the metro will avoid the most significant winter weather. That will likely stay nestled along and north of Highway 36.

After analyzing the latest round of data, confidence is a bit higher that counties southeast of metro KC will receive just rain. The additional rain, on top of what is received tonight, is leading to flooding concerns. You’ll find estimated rain totals in the Forecast Track map below. That’s why the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for several of our counties (shaded in green on the map below). Several inches of rain will fall from tonight through Monday along the state line and south of I-70. Also, note the counties shaded in blue. Those counties, including the metro,  are outlined in a Winter Storm Watch for Sunday at 6:00 PM. This is the area of concern for potential ice and snow.

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As colder air starts working into this system, a transition to a wintry mix is expected late Sunday and early Monday before everything eventually changes over to snow showers. Snow amounts in the metro are not expected to be significant. You’ll have to travel to far NW MO to find heftier snow total potential. Either way, icy conditions could create for hazardous travel Sunday night and especially Monday.

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These forecasts below are preliminary. I cannot emphasize enough how  a slight shift in the track of this system will equal huge changes in who sees more ice, snow or just rain.

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In addition to the precipitation, one thing is certain. It will be VERY breezy. Winds will gusts as high as 40 MPH at times Sunday and for the first half of Monday. Stay tuned for the latest on this weekend and Monday mess headed our way.

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