Suchan Says: Look To Weekend Snow Chances

The forecast through tonight is very straight forward.  More drizzle and patchy rain to push through for another wet commute ahead Friday.  Temperatures hold steady in the lower 40s overnight.  Roads are just wet.

During the day Friday, cloudiness holds in place but it will turn drier with roads in better shape for the ride home.  High temperatures in the lower to mid 40s in the metro again with highs near 50 to the southeast from the metro!

Saturday’s system…  as of right now, it appears the development and track of this low is simply too far to the south and east for a direct hit on our area.  Yes I expect flurries and a few snow showers Friday night into Saturday that could produce a dusting or so of snow in the metro and areas west.  But the likely zone of snow to emerge will tend to consolidate around the best dynamics near the passing low pressure system.

So the track of this system is key.  Temperatures are plenty cold to support only snow.

Here is a model comparison.  I’ve included our in-house Forecast Track model which is the most aggressive currently.  It’s track is roughly 50  to 100 miles further west than the other models.  I’m leery of this solution and am in fact leaning toward the other two models seen below.

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Track from our in-house model is more favorable for snow in our area (accumulating snow)

avn_48_sfc

GFS model track is closer to SE Missouri

eta_48_sfc

NAM is very close to the GFS track and keeps best chance of accumulating snow just outside our area

Understand, we’re 36 hours away from this system and there’s plenty of time for the track to shift.  This is not set in stone just yet.  But given the data before me and the very good convergence toward a common solution by the various models, I’m hedging much more conservative at this time.

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Created Thursday at 4:50pm… will update as needed

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=hl

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