Suchan Says: NWS Skywarn Program, Storm Next Week

The National Weather Service Skywarn Storm Spotter program began tonight in Johnson County, KS and runs through the end of March across the viewing area.  It’s free to the public to attend and is filled with great content on what to look for to become a more savy storm spotter when severe weather season rolls around in a couple of months.

Here’s the schedule through March.

Spotter

spotter_2

Much of this week’s weather is nice and quiet with a dramatic warming trend as the week progresses.  Tuesday is stuck with stubborn clouds and a few peeks of sun.  Temperatures stay in the lower to mid 30s.

Wednesday is when we break loose into abundant sunshine along with soaring temperatures.  Mid 40s Wednesday into the upper 40s Thursday and well into the 50s to near 60 by Friday!!

This of course is not a built to last pattern and signs strongly point toward a return to colder weather next week.  That said, the big question to be resolved in the days ahead, where will a strong storm develop and ultimately track.

Signals for low pressure development Tuesday in the middle of the country are fairly strong.  However, the future track of the storm reveals a large spread in computer model guidance and using the model ensembles, there simply is poor confidence in what will fall.

For comparison purposes, here are two panels for 7:00am next Tuesday.  The top image is the American GFS operational model followed by the European (ECMWF) model.  If hoping for a major snow, the ECMWF is the clear cut model solution to hope for as it follows the I-44 corridor delivers a heavy snow to parts of the area while the GFS takes the storm too far north bringing rain to the area followed by a switch to snow before ending Tuesday night into Wednesday.

This far out, there’s plenty of time to fine tune the forecast details.  But make sure you’re plugged into this forecast for planning next week!  We’ll keep you posted on the latest!!

avn_180_sfc

GFS model tracks system too far north for big snow over Kansas City (rain switching to snow before ending in this solution)

ECMWF

ECMWF is an extremely favorable track for heavy snow on the northwest side of the surface low as it tracks south – southeast of the area keeping us in the cold side of the storm

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=hl

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