Suchan Says: Enjoy a Break from Winter

We now enter a stretch of weather where we can all relax, stretch and take a deep breath of unseasonably mild temperatures straight into the weekend.  I highly encourage you to maximize the beautiful string of days ahead as next week will certainly turn much colder on us along with a big storm to move through.

Sunshine dominates into Saturday with occasional high clouds and perhaps a touch of early morning fog or low clouds briefly before getting into warm afternoon sunshine.

Here’s a look at the temperature trend ahead.  Incredible!!  Keep in mind mornings are still cold to chilly and likely require a jacket to at least start the day before going to short sleeves for some.

WarmUp

Confidence seven days out on a storm next Tuesday is surprisingly high.  All signs and available forecast guidance strongly suggests a strong low developing across Kansas Monday night into early Tuesday then moving northeast.  The big question which we’ll need to resolve in the coming days, where will this system track.  I can’t emphasize this enough how important a track and mere 100 mile shift complicates our forecast and what we see.

If you’re a snow lover and hoping for a big storm, you definitely are hoping for track #2 which keeps much of our area in the cold side of the low interacting with quite a bit of moisture to produce a big snow.

If you’re hoping to miss this one, you’re definitely hoping for the northern track #1.  Tuesday’s guidance leans toward track #1 but already tonight’s operational run of the GFS has waffled south a bit on the track pulling more snow into the northern half of the area.

*** We’ll see a solid half dozen track adjustments from the models I’m sure this far out.  Please be flexible as we trend forecast the next day or two then get more concrete with details once confidence improves.

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Track #1 puts snow in far northern – northwestern Missouri and especially Nebraska to Iowa. Wrap around mix to snow ends Track #1 into Kansas City with only light accumulation. Track #2 puts heavy snow into a good chunk of our area

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Storm brings cold winds and wrap around mix or snow to end the event Tuesday night to Wednesday

I just looked over the GFS ensemble members which lend confidence to the operational model run and they are simply all over the place!!!  Not good when you want to have confidence in a model track shift of a storm.

Each ensemble member handles the atmosphere slightly different with set parameters to cover all kinds of different possibilities.  When they all tightly cluster around a similar solution, confidence increases tremendously in the operational model run.  When they have a large range of solutions, confidence is simply awful.

Taking a blend of all the ensembles, here’s the probability of seeing 3 or more inches of snow.  Needless to say, it’s an extremely low probability in our area.  It increases further north into Nebraska and Iowa.

gefs_snow_3_noram_29

GFS ensemble members combined probability of seeing 3 or more inches of snow. Very low probability!

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=hl

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