Suchan Says: Weekend Warm Up! Storm Next Week

Thursday will be another late February cold day in the area with mostly cloudy skies, a gusty breeze and temperatures climbing out of the upper 20s into the lower to mid 40s during the afternoon.  It will feel colder with the breeze.

Friday begins the warm up although first thing in the morning, it will be in the mid 20s.  Afternoon temperatures Friday will climb to near 52.

Saturday starts cold in the lower to mid 30s with some patchy frost.  Sunshine and a gusty southwest wind will then quickly warm us up into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees!  Sunday looks mild too although it will be windy.  Highs in the mid to upper 60s with a gusty wind from the northwest.

It is worth noting, if you’re out Sunday evening plan on temperatures quickly cooling through the 50s into the 40s before midnight.

The next system on deck looks like a golden opportunity for much needed moisture!  We’ve only seen .40″ of rain this month and no snow.  A “snowless” February which doesn’t happen often!!  Last time in fact was 2002.

The way I see it now and this is bolstered by the latest run of the GFS computer model, rain will gradually develop Tuesday with the potential for a few rumbles of thunder too.  Any risk for strong to severe storms stays well to our south.  By Tuesday evening as the low is deepening and tracking south of our viewing area, colder air will begin to wrap into the northwestern part of the area creating a mix with wet snow to the northwest from the KC metro.

Gradually through the night a mix and change to wet snow is possible then the storm moves away Wednesday morning.  It’s way too early to talk accumulations as far as snowfall but an early look at rainfall amounts shows the potential for a solid inch or so of rain and maybe more in some areas.  Given we’re 5 1/2 to 6 days out, this forecast will get a lot of fine tuning of small scale details.

Here are some images from tonight’s GFS run which I personally believe is a more realistic run from the last few GFS model runs.  It’s a closer fit to the operational ECMWF run which will be updating its next run soon.

avn_141_850

Tuesday Late Afternoon: 850mb thermal low organizing to our southwest . Initial warm sector southerly flow pumps moisture into the area for rain and some thunder. First signs of colder air wrapping in across Nebraska into central Kansas

avn_144_vv

Tuesday Early Evening: Strong lift and deep moisture over our area for widespread rain and thunder. Possible heavy storms down south. Seeing cooling temperatures to northwest creating some mix

avn_153_850

Tuesday Night: 850mb thermal low deepening with subfreezing temperatures overtaking the area for change to wet snow

avn_153_vv

Tuesday Night: Period of wet snow before tapering off Wednesday morning.

avn_150_sfc

Tuesday Night: Surface low tracking across Arkansas then curving northeast (GFS model solution)

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=hl

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