Suchan Says: Chilly Rain Showers, Few Snowflakes?!

Friday will bring an abrupt change to the going pattern of weather we’ve enjoyed with unseasonably warm temperatures.  The first half of the month is a general 10 to 12 degrees warmer than normal.  Now we’ll introduce a rare stretch of unseasonably chilly temperatures for a few days.

Satellite

Band of rain will gradually shift into our area Friday

A zone of light to moderate rain will develop across the southern half of the area Friday.  As you travel north from Kansas City, rain chances will gradually decrease and ultimately breaks of sun are possible in extreme northern Missouri!

Of interest to me, models have been introducing a marginally favorable environment for some wet snow to fall in the southern half of the area.  Essentially the deep layer column of the atmosphere above us is very supportive of snow for a time but a pesky shallow layer of air from the surface to around 2,000′ with temperatures well above 32 will dominate.  This will melt most of the falling snow but if the precip rates are high enough, at times the snow may overcome this shallow melt layer producing a mix of rain and big wet snowflakes.

Even if this occurs, there’s very little chance of accumulation.  But it certainly would add to the raw, soggy feel to the day!!

Sounding

Forecast sounding south of Kansas City showing only a shallow melt layer to overcome for snow. Thus the rain – snow mix potential in the southern half of the viewing area

Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 40s in the northern half of the area while the southern half of the region stays from 40 to near the mid 40s.

Rainfall amounts will be light.  A general trace to .25″ rainfall is expected (mainly south of I-70).

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Rain showers move in during commute

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Cold rain, possibly mixing with wet snow

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Rain shifting to southeast and eventually out of the area by early evening

Rain

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=hl

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