Suchan Says: Wednesday T-Storm Outlook

A strong area of low pressure will be approaching the area Wednesday and as is typically the case this time of the year, it’s time to start watching the ingredients for severe weather and how they’re coming together.

In Wednesday’s case, there is a lot on the table for severe weather day.  The strength of the low, the position of the low and the time of day it arrives are extremely favorable for severe storms.  The one ingredient that appears to be lacking as of the latest available charts is instability.  Cloudiness for a portion of the day will effectively limit rapid warming coupled with dew point temperatures likely holding in the mid to perhaps upper 50s should limit how unstable the atmosphere becomes (dew points in the 60s more favorable for severe).

That said, it appears a narrow window of marginal to weakly unstable air will develop by late afternoon to early evening.  This coupled with strong wind shear and potent forcing from a cold front, dryline and upper air dynamics should be enough to create a thin line of squally storms capable of some hail and brief strong wind gusts.  I cannot rule out a severe t-storm warning or two Wednesday but most of what we see should remain just below severe criteria as far as hail size and wind gusts are concerned.

Severe

Updated Severe Weather Outlook for Wednesday

ForecastTrack

Morning cloudiness and possibly a touch of mist or drizzle. There’s a slight chance in northern Missouri for a daybreak T-Storm

ForecastTrack2

Breaks of sun moving in from the west midday. Drizzle or a light shower ahead of these breaks possible

ForecastTrack3

Broken line of showers or T-storms by late afternoon

ForecastTrack4

Showers or squall T-storms move east during the evening

ForecastTrack5

Colder Thursday morning with even some snow possible in the northern third of the area where a light accumulation is possible

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=hl

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