Amble’s Ramble

Latest look at a complex storm system.

Two sets of storms will fire this afternoon and again well after sunset.

The initial set of storms will begin to develop after 4:00 PM over extreme northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri with a slim potential for downburst winds and marginally large hail. During the initial development stage a very slight risk for an isolated tornado is possible. The potential is highest along a developing warm front north of St. Joseph, MO …in fact it’s likely close to the Iowa border.  Trailing storms could reach as far south as the Metro by 6:00 PM but it’s not likely the storms near KC will be severe.

Just about sunset storms are possible from Marshall, MO south to near Clinton, MO. This next set has better fuel to work with and has a much better potential to be strong or severe with damaging wind and hail as the primary threat. These storms will quickly race eastward and clear the KCTV5 viewing area shortly after firing. At this time the skies in the Metro may actually clear as a dry slot works into the area. All storms should be out ( east ) of the viewing area by the 10:00 PM Newscast.

Overnight the latest round of models are more aggressive with snow chances. There’s a chance for a light dusting of snow from Kansas City to the Iowa border. I don’t see a great chance for snow to stick in Kansas City but from Atchison, KS to the Iowa border some snow may stick to grassy areas in the morning before melting away during the day Thursday.

Chris Suchan will have the latest RAP model data later this afternoon to better pinpoint thunderstorm initiation points.

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