Suchan Says: Midweek Storm Risk

Today and tomorrow are a couple of gorgeous spring days for the area.  Wednesday is the our transition day into a cooler finish to the week and this time of the year when that happens, we go on severe weather patrol.

Wednesday is not a slam dunk severe weather day and this is often the case early in the severe weather season.  It’s what we call a conditional severe weather potential.  A number of things need to align properly and if they do, yes we will see severe storms.

One of the big variables in the forecast is the amount of cloudiness we see during peak heating.  There are strong signals a deck of low clouds will build in early in the day and will only slowly scour out during the afternoon.

A second big variable is if a large zone of storminess develops way down to our south in Oklahoma to Arkansas.  We could see quite a bit of high cloudiness flow north into the area over the deck of low clouds which would slow down the process of clearing for sunshine.

But it certainly appears late day breaks of sun are indeed possible and with strong dynamics moving in, scattered strong to severe storms as a possibility we need to consider.

Radar

SPC’s severe outlook Wednesday

ForecastTrack

Mostly cloudy if not completely cloudy to start Wednesday

ForecastTrack2

Mid-afternoon mostly cloudy with signs of increasing breaks of sun especially to the west

ForecastTrack3

Scattered evening storms Wednesday

Looking ahead, just days ago it appeared a large chunk of Arctic cold air would drop south into our area late in the weekend.  It now appears this air mass will stay just north to northeast of our area allowing for pleasantly warm temperatures Sunday.  BUT, notice how close and how impressive a temperature swing sets up.  Iowa may be stuck in the 30s and 40s while we’re basking in 60s and 70s!!

avn_sfc_st_147

GFS surface temperature forecast next Sunday. Impressive temperature swing traveling from Missouri into Iowa!!

Royals

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=hl

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