Suchan Says: Weekend Forecast

Overall this is a nice weekend!  Only two blemishes I see, a gusty wind developing Sunday and the risk for a few evening showers or thunderstorms Sunday before the weekend comes to an end.

Saturday is mostly sunny to completely sunny, breezy and much warmer.  Highs from 76 – 80 across the area.  Breezes from the south 10 – 20 by the afternoon.

Sunday looks dry for much of the day.  Skies will turn partly sunny and as an upper low swirls into Nebraska and South Dakota, it will drag a dry line into the eastern half of Kansas by late afternoon to early evening.  A dry line is sort of like a cold front except lacking a nice thermal gradient.  Naturally, it’s more of a reflection of a gradient in dew point temperatures (muggy factor).  But this feature is important as coupled with a glancing blow from the upper low, it will trigger a few storms.

I see enough instability and wind shear in place to warrant an isolated risk of severe storms with hail and brief strong wind gusts.

ForecastTrack

Sunday Morning

ForecastTrack2

Sunday Afternoon

ForecastTrack3

Sunday Evening (7pm)

ForecastTrack4

Sunday Late Evening

We will continue to monitor the middle of next week for a more widespread severe weather risk.  Specifically looking at Tuesday night into the first half of Wednesday as a strong area of low pressure develops in the middle of the country.  It’s too early for specifics on where and what.  As the system of interest gets closer to the west coast, we will be able to better sample the system and improve computer modeling.

We’ll keep you posted.  In the meantime, enjoy the weekend!!

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/

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