First of all, it needs to be emphasized, the biggest threat for widespread severe storms looks to be just west of the metro. The severe weather outlook below shows those most at risk. Already, you’ll find a moderate risk for severe storms Tuesday in southern NE, down through central KS and into the OK and TX border. This is the zone where giant hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are most likely.
This is not “hype.” It’s science. It’s a forecast. I’m not sure why that term gets tossed around so much during severe weather risk days. We should always be very thankful when we dodge damaging storms in setups like tomorrow. I’ll mention it again, the biggest risk for severe weather is west of our area.
Our first chance of showers and storms arrives early Tuesday morning. Overnight, an amplified low level jet will intersect a boundary currently situated just south of the metro. This could serve for the focus for some rain for the Tuesday morning commute. Can’t rule out a hail report either.
Tuesday is NOT expected to be an all day rain event. I expect many dry hours in the afternoon before rain chance ramps up again in the evening. That’s when our severe risk rolls in, too.
As I mentioned before, the most significant risk for severe storms Tuesday night falls west of our area. With that being said…. we still have to track the potential for all hazards tomorrow evening. I really believe shear in our area is lackluster for a robust tornado threat which is fantastic news. BUT, there still exists the chance for an isolated tornado report or two. Biggest risk I see with wildly unstable air in place, would be large hail reports. Second to that would be a few damaging wind reports.