After a great start to the weekend with toasty warm sunshine (other than a few storms in northern Missouri early in the day Saturday), Sunday ushers in a return to a more active forecast as showers and storms move back in.
The first part of the day Sunday should offer the driest part of the forecast with only an isolated rain chance. Shifting into the afternoon, temperatures warm into the mid 70s and with fairly high dew points, the atmosphere will be unstable. Combine this with an approaching upper air disturbance, thunderstorms should rapidly develop to our west and move during the afternoon and especially the evening.
I see just enough instability and wind shear to promote the risk for strong to possibly a few severe storms with hail and wind gusts. However, the more volatile severe weather setup should remain well west of our viewing area where a higher risk of tornadoes will exist.
Monday will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms. It appears a few severe storms are possible especially in the southern half of the viewing area Monday. This risk extends south and out of our area into southern Missouri and southeastern Kansas into Oklahoma and Arkansas. The key to Monday’s forecast, if we can junk up the atmosphere with a lot of cloudiness and early day rain, that could limit how unstable the atmosphere becomes to support vigorous storm updrafts.
Rainfall amounts over the next two days will be significant locally. Potential exists for some areas to see 3 or more inches of rain if we see training storms with downpours.