A powerful cold front will be quickly bulldozing south toward our area arriving in the afternoon Friday. First impact we’ll be in northern Missouri where showers or thunderstorms are possible by early to mid afternoon. Areas further south will be into quite a bit of sunshine with warming temperatures and a gusty southwest wind.
The cold front moves into the Kansas City metro between 4pm – 6pm with quick hitting showers or strong thunderstorms.
Forecast wind shear across the area is favorable for supercells and forecast instability levels are high enough for strong, rotating updrafts capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The one BIG limiting factor to a bigger severe weather risk is the dew point temperature. As you may have noticed today, the air is very dry and typically it takes a full couple of days after an air mass we’re in to change character and become humid as moisture (humidity) from the Gulf of Mexico surges back into the area. When dew points are climbing into at least the lower to mid 60s or even higher, the severe weather risk increases quite a bit. As of now, it appears widespread dew points in the upper 50s will be most likely to perhaps near 60.
My expectation is for fairly high based strong to severe storms which often reduces the tornado threat. I won’t take it off the table completely however but large hail and strong wind gusts are certainly the more likely hazard.
Here are some Forecast Track images showing the rain / storm timeline.