Tuesday brings a rather challenging forecast trying to pin down where, if and when storms later in the day could develop. The first half of the day presents a bit of a muddy forecast potential with patchy cloudiness lingering in the area from overnight to daybreak showers or storms across the Plains into some of the Midwest. Just how much this debris cloudiness limits late day storm development and intensity remains to be seen until trends can be pinned down.
I still feel late day scattered storms are possible especially as “cold front” moves in by late evening. While not a true cold front with a push of cooler Canadian air, this front will effectively serve as a trigger to force parcels of air to rise in a moist, unstable atmosphere to develop storms. Forecast instability levels are high allowing for robust updrafts capable of large hail and brief strong wind gusts.
The amount of shear available is rather marginal for big severe weather season severe storms. Just enough wind shear for a few organized storms (supercells) along with the inherent risk of large hail and wind.
Quality of low level wind shear for tornadoes is lackluster in my opinion. But a big variable will be whether any lingering outflow boundaries from earlier activity sets up in the area. This is a region in which localized directional wind shear can be maximized for storms to ingest as they cross or ride along a boundary for that isolated brief spin up risk.
Once we clear Tuesday, the rest of the week is very hot and humid with little more than a very slight 10% rain chance. Heat index values will push over 100 this week as air temperatures climb into the mid 90s!