Suchan Says: Thursday Storm Chances

Radar2

Storms now and overall trajectory into late tonight and through sunrise

Once again storms are firing off to our northwest tonight.  A closer examination of the track of these storms shows potential to yet again clip into our area.  Often times with clusters of storms like this, they can develop a cool pool of air behind them that helps to push them forward into warm, unstable air.  At times this can cause a turn to the southeast as well.  In addition, an outflow of cooler air from these storms could rush out in front of them into our area producing late night storms as well.

So with the above in mind, I certainly am carrying a 40% chance of morning showers or storms.  I will disregard computer models that produce very little rain in the morning as they’re not initiating current storms very well.  Our in-house computer model Forecast Track has a solid depiction of expectations in the morning.

ForecastTrack

Showers / storms rumble in through daybreak

ForecastTrack2

Midday with only a lingering rain chance as sunshine breaks out

ForecastTrack3

Mainly dry in the afternoon but I will continue a 20% rain chance especially in northern Missouri at 3pm

ForecastTrack4

Unlike Wednesday, Thursday will have a 30% chance of showers or storms in the evening

As for severe weather parameters, there’s definitely enough in place for large hail and strong wind gusts.  Atmosphere is unstable through the day although there could be a period after any morning rain / clouds where instability is on the lower side.  Even if that occurs, I see potential for instability levels to rise quite a bit through the day.  The GFS computer model actually caps off the atmosphere from producing much until very late or even Thursday night while the NAM brings in additional late afternoon to evening storms with a severe risk.

We’ll want to keep a close eye on things through the day.  Here’s the SPC outlook with a new update coming early tonight.  Meteorologist Gary Amble will have that for you in the morning.

Severe

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/

 

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