Suchan Says: Storms & Big Cool Down

A strong summer cold front is on the move and will be arriving in our viewing area Friday night with a major temperature and humidity swing into the weekend!  It also still holds the promise of showers and storms for the region to finish the day Friday into some of Friday night.

Much of Friday looks just fine to me with dry conditions dominating.  Any rain chance during the day is very isolated and confined to southeastern parts of the area into central Missouri.  Otherwise I’m just not expecting much from the morning into the afternoon.

The early morning may start with some patchy low clouds or even a touch of fog as moisture pumps into the area ahead of the front.  Any patchy clouds or fog should quickly mix out into a mostly to partly sunny afternoon with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to even 90 in spots.

ForecastTrack

Morning patchy clouds or even fog

ForecastTrack2

Partly sunny afternoon with a very slight rain chance

The main window of opportunity for storms in my estimation remains 8:00pm – 2:00am with the earliest arrival in eastern Kansas to northwestern Missouri then gradually spreading east late evening into the overnight hours.

ForecastTrack3

Early evening, storms developing out to our west/northwest

ForecastTrack4

Moving into the metro mid to late evening

NAM_4km

For model comparison sake to our “Forecast Track” in-house computer model, here’s the hi-res NAM 4km run showing a slightly slower solution to storm arrival

As for severe potential, it’s certainly on the table.  It will be a race against the clock as once the sun sets and cooling is underway, the atmosphere will gradually become less and less supportive of severe storms if they take their time in arriving.  If they do push in near or just after sunset, the atmosphere will certainly be unstable but with fairly weak wind shear.  This would relegate storms to brief strong wind gusts, “maybe” some hail, downpours and frequent lightning.  Now if a mesoscale convective system develops which is a more organized cluster of storms that develop a cool pool of air behind them, this could enhance the wind gust potential and severity risk.

So we’ll see what shakes out.  Any storms in the area near or after midnight would pose much less risk of being severe.

blog

Rain

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/

Advertisements

There are no comments on this post.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: