A strong summer cold front is on the move and will be arriving in our viewing area Friday night with a major temperature and humidity swing into the weekend! It also still holds the promise of showers and storms for the region to finish the day Friday into some of Friday night.
Much of Friday looks just fine to me with dry conditions dominating. Any rain chance during the day is very isolated and confined to southeastern parts of the area into central Missouri. Otherwise I’m just not expecting much from the morning into the afternoon.
The early morning may start with some patchy low clouds or even a touch of fog as moisture pumps into the area ahead of the front. Any patchy clouds or fog should quickly mix out into a mostly to partly sunny afternoon with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to even 90 in spots.
The main window of opportunity for storms in my estimation remains 8:00pm – 2:00am with the earliest arrival in eastern Kansas to northwestern Missouri then gradually spreading east late evening into the overnight hours.
As for severe potential, it’s certainly on the table. It will be a race against the clock as once the sun sets and cooling is underway, the atmosphere will gradually become less and less supportive of severe storms if they take their time in arriving. If they do push in near or just after sunset, the atmosphere will certainly be unstable but with fairly weak wind shear. This would relegate storms to brief strong wind gusts, “maybe” some hail, downpours and frequent lightning. Now if a mesoscale convective system develops which is a more organized cluster of storms that develop a cool pool of air behind them, this could enhance the wind gust potential and severity risk.
So we’ll see what shakes out. Any storms in the area near or after midnight would pose much less risk of being severe.