Tonight could be a bumpy one for most of our area as thunderstorms move in from the southwest. There is a slight risk for a few of those storms to become strong or severe with large hail and strong winds the primary threat. While conditions don’t favor tornadoes there is still a very small chance that an isolated tornado or two could spin down especially during the late evening hours. Here’s a look at that latest severe weather risk area from the Storm Prediction Center:
As you can see the slight risk ( yellow ) cover most of the KCTV5 viewing area with a marginal risk ( green ) covering the rest.
The timing of the storms is still in question but most of the modeling data now suggests the storms will approach the Kansas City Metro about two hours after sunset. The western part of our southern zones could get into the act just prior or very near sunset. This is a look at Storm Track 5 Forecast Track which shows strong storms approaching the Metro around 9:00 PM this evening:
If this holds true then we can expect to hear thunder around 9:30 PM with the gust front hitting the area around the same time. That will be followed by heavy rain, ( possible hail ) and additional down-burst winds just about the time many are getting ready for bed.
Heavy rain is also possible in the Metro area which has now been included in the Flood Watch.
Judging from this is clear that the greatest potential for flooding will be in areas north of I-70. That certainly doesn’t mean that areas south of the Interstate are in the clear but the greatest threat will include areas from the Metro to St. Joseph then north through Maryville. The I-35 corridor will also be impacted by heavy rain overnight from the Kansas City Metro all the way to the Iowa border. Get ready for a bumpy ride overnight. We certainly are in the Storm Track 5 WeatherCenter!