Suchan Says: Closer Look at Storm Risk

Skies gradually turn mostly cloudy overnight and a few showers or a thunderstorm developing into the morning commute remains a possibility.  This also includes the southern half of the area which stayed completely dry Wednesday.

The highest rain chance will be in the southern half of the area with the northern half seeing only an isolated chance of rain.  The metro falls right in the middle.

forecasttrack

Morning: Mostly cloudy with a few showers or a thunderstorm

forecasttrack2

Afternoon: 40% chance of rain metro but 60% down south… only 20% up north

forecasttrack3

Late Evening: Heavy storms down to our south scraping into the southern tier of our viewing area

 

Severe weather risk is highest down toward Iola to Chanute, KS or the southeastern corner of Kansas into southwestern Missouri.  This region could see rapid storm development by the evening and clusters of strong to severe storms moving toward Rich Hill to Nevada in Missouri.   But some of these storms could brush into our southern tier counties in the evening to Thursday night.

I wouldn’t be surprised if a “slight risk” of severe storms was drawn into this region based on latest model data.  We’ll see….  large hail and damaging wind gusts with localized flooding would be the concerns.  Again, bulk of this weather is on our viewing area doorstep to the south with some overlap into our southern counties.

avn_27_vv

GFS with a strong signal of heavy storms in southeastern KS into west – southwestern Missouri by Thursday late evening

eta_30_vv

NAM also shows a strong signal for storms in southeastern KS into MO

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV

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