Suchan Says: Big Storm Next Week

Last week brought scattered thunderstorms and a few severe storms too in early November.  But overall the weather scene has been very tame with no shortage of unseasonably warm days.   That will gradually start to change in the next week or so as the pattern begins to shift.

In the short term forecast, we’ll continue to see unseasonably warm conditions with brief bouts of cooler temperatures as cold fronts march into the eastern and northeastern part of the country.  These cold fronts may not seem all that significant but they symbolize a gradual process of hammering away at the pattern to allow the overall pattern across the country into Canada to shift toward late autumn cool.

By the middle of next week, a strong upper level trough will slam into the west coast and begin to migrate to the east.   This will likely develop a strong surface low on the leeside of the Rockies with an eventual track to the northeast.

avn_180_500

GFS panel at 500mb. Strong upper trough moving across California into Nevada

All models strongly suggest this scenario will unfold.  What this means for sensible weather?  A strong warm sector is likely to expand into our area ahead of the low with gusty winds.  We will need to watch for showers or storms to develop along the system’s cold front and it’s entirely possible a few gusty storms could emerge if things line up just right.

avn_204_850

Next Thursday… strong low moving northeast across the plains. Note colder air in the Dakotas for likely zone of heavy snow

avn_204_vv

Next Thursday… Broken line of showers or t-storms working across our area. Zone of strong lift noted in the Dakotas for heavy precipitation. “Yellow & red contours” are thresholds for frozen precipitation (north of both lines… pure snow most likely)

Climatology would dictate the track of the storm goes north of our area.  With this track, a snow event is likely on the north to northwest side of the system across the northern plains.  We would catch the wrap-around cold and “just maybe” a few random flurries in far northern Missouri as the system moves away.

Ultimately, a strong likelihood of realizing our first freeze of the season as well.

avn_216_850

Next Friday morning… wrapping cold air into the area as system passes north of us

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving, a colder pattern will settle into the area behind this system.  Of course, we’ll want to watch for any signs of storminess that week which could impact your holiday plans.

avn_372_850

Thanksgiving on the GFS. Much colder temperatures settling south into the lower 48.

Chris Suchan
Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

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