Suchan Says: Looking Ahead to Next Week

Weather the rest of this week remains rather tame with seasonably chilly temperatures moving back into the area Wednesday and holding in place into the weekend.  I still see signs of a few showers with perhaps a snowflake slipping in Saturday night to Sunday morning before moving out.  No accumulation or problems expected as temperatures in the morning should be in the mid 30s.

Jumping ahead to the middle of next week, a potent system is possible by the middle of the week as the season’s first shot of Arctic cold surges south.  Meanwhile a deep upper trough is swinging through the Rockies heading toward the Plains.   Low pressure development to the lee of the Rockies is likely in this scenario with rapid deepening and strengthening.

avn_204_500

GFS has an aggressive 500mb upper trough digging into the Plains associated with strengthening surface low

Latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF favor a bullseye track just north to northwest of our viewing area but this is 8 or so days out.  Nothing is in concrete as far as exact tracks are concerned.

storm

Off the 12Z GFS model run… this image is for Wednesday night. In this image, that’s wrap around snow into our area after soaking rain Wednesday

ecmwf_slp_precip_east_35

12Z ECMWF run… this image is for Wednesday. Low pressure tracks just north of Kansas City with heaviest snow totals staying just north-northwest of us (using this storm track)

Taking this modeled forecast track at face value, rain moves in with even a little thunder possible.  Rain would then mix with snow as colder air begins to wrap into the region and a change to snow before ending would be likely.   This would keep the heaviest snow totals just north of us but our northern zones would be able to see a bit of accumulation.

Also of note, the brutal Arctic cold.  With a potential fresh snowpack and very cold air surging across it into our area, Thursday looks extremely cold compared to what we’ve seen.  KEEP THIS IN MIND for the big Chiefs’ game against the Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium for Thursday Night Football.

avn_228_850

Arctic cold slamming into the area behind the system Thursday

We’ll be continually updating forecast details in the coming days on next week’s forecast.  Updates here on our weather blog as new information comes out BUT also on our social media pages.

On Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/

On Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV

Chris Suchan
Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

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