Suchan Says: Looking Ahead

Seasonably cold weather has moved into the area and will take us straight into the upcoming weekend forecast.

Of some small interest, a small amount of moisture will likely pass through the region this weekend with just enough dynamics to squeeze out light rain showers or even some snow showers.  An examination of the temperature profile above shows a decent profile aloft for snow development with saturation just into the -10C favored snow growth region.  However, a shallow melt layer beneath these cold temperatures aloft presents problems for pure snow.  But it’s not a particularly stout melt layer and could be overcome.  End result, we’ll continue with a light rain possibly mixed with light snow forecast this weekend.

mci_87_sound

Forecast sounding for late Saturday showing moisture and temperature

I wouldn’t expect much accumulation.  If everything lines up just right, perhaps a dusting or so in spots.  But that’s a big if.

Next week still has potential for a stronger system along with a shot of Arctic cold.  We’re going into a period over the next 2 to 3 days where model watching will generate anxiety for snow lovers.  Models are notorious for waffling back and forth 5+ days out which means a few runs could be a slam dunk for snow while flip flops to mainly rain or a near miss scenario are produced.  We are seeing some model waffling from yesterday to today.  Here’s an example…

gfs_storm

GFS model… tracking the 850mb thermal low from model run to model run. See the big difference in the track?! Latest run produces mainly rain followed by wrap around Arctic cold while last night was favorable for snow

My advice… be patient and give it a few days.  We’ll all watch latest trends together and see where models begin to converge on details.  Whether you want snow or not, avoid hitting the panic button until at least Friday or Saturday 🙂

Chris Suchan
Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

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