Suchan Says: Latest on Snow Forecast

I still believe we’re on track for the KC metro’s first measurable snow of the season Wednesday.  That said, I still do not expect a heavy snow to fall across the area.  Appears the amount of available moisture is suspect, low levels of the atmosphere are rather dry for a period of the day making it difficult for snow to survive the trip all the way down and the lack of a well organized area of low pressure limits dynamics to drive the day’s snow.

But there are still some key pieces on the table for a little snow to be sure.  NAM computer model tonight actually was a small improvement from prior runs for snow lovers.  At 500mb, the nose of the approaching channeled vorticity cutting across Kansas creates a nice diffluent environment over us to force air parcels to rise.  In addition, we’re in the right rear entrance region of a stout jet streak in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Yet another mechanism to create lift in the atmosphere.  Both of which are seen in these two images.

eta_45_500

NAM 500mb panel showing flow pattern and vorticity

eta_42_300

NAM 300mb upper level winds. Looking at the passing strong jet streak.

forecasttrack5

Flurries or snow showers moving in early Wednesday

forecasttrack4

Late morning to early afternoon

forecasttrack3

Late afternoon

snow

Chris Suchan
KCTV5/KSMO Meteorologist

 

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