Suchan Says: Snow On the Move

Well it’s certainly not a classic big snow setup for our area.  We will not see a strong surface low with impressive upper level dynamics to engineer a deep snow.  Instead, we’re looking at a short duration, quick hitting very dry, powdery snow that maximizes a limited amount of moisture to produce an accumulation.

In the morning, skies are mostly clear and it’s bitterly cold.  Morning temperatures around 9 but feels a little below zero when you factor in the breeze.  During the day, a gradual trend of increasing clouds filtering the sun will be observed.  You may also see a nice halo at some point around the sun as these higher based clouds are pushing in.

I expect we’re pretty cloudy by sunset with a few flurries possible from roughly 6pm – 8pm.  Initially snow aloft will find too much dry air in the low levels to survive the trip all the way down.  So there could be a period where radar is loading up but not much is being reported.

Around or shortly after 8pm I do expect to start receiving some snow reports in the area.  Once we enter this window, snow will gradually expand in coverage across the region overnight into Thursday morning.  After sunrise Thursday, we’ll see the coverage of snow gradually decrease then move south and out of the area.

Total forecast liquid for this event is in the .05″ to .15″ range.  Given the snow to liquid ratio will run close to 20:1, I would expect a solid 1″ to 3″ belt of snow cutting across the area.  KEEP in mind, I’m not saying everyone gets 3″ of snow – hah!  That’s simply the highest amount I could see.  I do expect some areas to only pick up around 1″ of snow too.

So here’s an assortment of graphics to highlight the timing of snow along with just how much.

**** The forecast time is in the upper right part of the banner in each of these panels.

Here’s our in-house computer model generated snow forecast which fits my forecast expectations.

snow

Chris Suchan
Meteorologist KCTV5/KSMO

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