Suchan Says: Warm Start To Week, Icy Finish?!

Temperatures will continue their climb in the coming days going into the 40s then quite possibly into the 50s for a couple of days.   There will also be a slight rain chance with sprinkles or mist Monday night into Tuesday morning and another isolated 20% rain chance Wednesday afternoon and evening as a system brushes across the area.

warmup

The important focus in the forecast ahead is late in the week.  There are a number of potential weather players in the fold to create an icy mess in the region with sleet and freezing rain.

It all starts with an Arctic high building south into the northern tier of the country.  It appears the depth of subfreezing air into our region would potentially not be enough to keep us just snow.  While a little snow would be possible, it appears a layer of warmer air aloft could muscle back in gradually into the weekend while surface temperatures are stuck in the 20s.

mci_135_sound

Saturated forecast sounding for Saturday at KCI. You can see very cold but shallow layer of air supporting sleet or freezing rain. Also note layer just off the surface of temperatures above freezing (melt layer)

Secondly, a stationary front will be parked to our south.  This boundary will serve as the temperature gradient but also allow moisture to flow in ahead of an approaching upper low over this boundary into our area generating the icy mess.

I certainly cannot get too specific on details this far out but would advise there is potential for some significant ice if everything aligns.  Stay with the entire Storm Track 5 weather team this week as we provide frequent updates.  Hopefully future updates will trend drier as no one wins with ice.

ice

Potential setup into next weekend and risk of ice in middle of the country

Chris Suchan
Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

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