Teachman’s Take: Strong Storms Expected Overnight

A big severe weather outbreak is expected across southcentral Kansas and northcentral OK this afternoon.  Violent, long-tracking tornadoes are possible in the HIGH RISK area, shaded in pink:

These types of risk are VERY RARE!  Only a handful are issued every year.  These storms will cluster together and approach our area by 9 PM.

When you look at a zoomed in pic of Today’s Severe Risk for our area, colors range from orange to yellow to green.  This shows you that the intensity of the storms will be decreasing as they move east/northeast during the overnight.

The greatest damaging wind and tornado threat will be in the orange or ENHANCED RISK area:

Storms will approach Lawrence around 9 PM:

If they continue on this track, they will be in downtown KC by 10 PM:

Further weakening occurs after midnight:

By 3 AM, the heaviest should be out of our viewing area:

There will still be some rain, especially along the MO/IA state line for the Friday morning commute:

If the atmosphere can recover late in the day Friday (a lot depends on the extent of our cloud cover, but the dynamics of this storm could overcome that), another chance for strong to severe storms is possible.

Hail and damaging winds cannot be ruled out along with heavy amounts of rain as early as 6 PM:

  

With rainfall estimates such as these, we’ll have to keep an eye on the potential for FLASH FLOODING:

Rain will taper early Saturday and the rest of the weekend will be a breeze!  Sunshine will return and highs will be near 70.

Take care,

Teach

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