Brett’s Blog (Scattered Soakers)

Tuesday’s showers and thunderstorms offered up some scattered soakers over northeast Kansas and western Missouri.  Just look at the rainfall map from Tuesday and you will see what I mean.

DMA Rainfall Yesterday.png

Nearly two inches of rain in Cameron but Clinton, Missouri picked up just a trace of moisture.  We’ll have scattered showers through Wednesday evening before clear skies  Wednesday night.  More scattered soakers are on the way Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.  We can already see the disturbance that brings our next chance of rain on visible satellite imagery.

National Water Vapor.png

The clear sky we see on the satellite photo will also mean Thursday starts with sunshine. This means the atmosphere will heat up. Thursday’s high in Kansas City warms to near 90-degrees.  Hot surface air coupled with cooler air aloft will lead to rapidly rising air.  Add some stronger winds aloft and we should see updrafts in developing thunderstorms become strong.  This could lead to some isolated or scattered thunderstorms with large hail.  Because of this set-up, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a “Slight Risk” for severe weather on Thursday.

Judging by our in-house computer data, we would likely see most of the action closer to the Iowa border.  But if thunderstorms form closer to Kansas City then we would have to worry about damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Surface 6.png

Lightning would also be likely.  The threat of lightning and wind elevates the chance of Power Outages.  This graphic below uses severe weather parameters and ranks the chance of the power being knocked out by either wind or lightning on a scale of 1 to 4. 1 being low and shaded in yellow, 4 is high and is shaded brown. There aren’t any brown areas on the map below.

Power Outage Index

You might notice an area over northern Missouri is shaded orange. That corresponds with a higher than average chance of power outages.  Why? This area has a better chance to see thunderstorms than other parts of Missouri and these thunderstorms will likely have lightning that could strike a power pole.  Something to keep in mind in you live north of KC.  Otherwise, Thursday’s thunderstorms will be a lot like Tuesday’s storms, Scattered soakers!

 

 

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