Brett’s Blog (Tuesday Rain Update)

Light rain moved into the Kansas City metro this morning.  So far the amounts have been on the lighter side.  This is pretty typical with this type of upper level low where the eastern side of the storm usually has weak lift and produces a steady period of light rain.  So far this storm is right on track.  Here is a look at a Live Power Doppler Image from around 9 a.m.

As the low spins toward Kansas City, we will likely experience a dry slot of air that will move overhead during the middle of the day.  Look for the temperature to warm into the upper 70s, especially if the sun comes out which is possible at this point.  But now look at the graphic below and notice the orange areas dotted around the area on Forecast Track.

What’s going on here?!  By 3 PM, the center of the upper low will be moving just south of Kansas City.  In this region you’ll find colder air aloft sitting over top warmer air at the surface. This set up generates energy and creates rising air. Rising air equals clouds, add copious moisture and you get thunderstorms.  That’s exactly what we expect to happen from late afternoon into the evening.

The severe threat is low with these thunderstorms but don’t be surprised, if one passes over your house, that you experience gusty winds and maybe small hail.  These thunderstorms will also be capable of putting down a lot of water in a short period of time.  Our short range model still insists some areas will end up with more than an inch of rain once these thunderstorms pass through the region.

Unfortunately, if you don’t get under one of these thunderstorms, then you’re rainfall totals for this storm will likely end up at a half inch or less.  There is another wave of energy forecast to arrive Thursday into Friday.  There is another chance of rain late Sunday.  So, all in all an active period. Now if we could just get the rain to fall in the right places.