Williams’s Wrap: Wintry Weather Now and Later

December 4, 2016 - Leave a Response

Sunday morning’s chilly rain and rain/snow mix is still set to move out by mid-morning. Reports of light snow with a little accumulation came out of Trenton and Chillicothe. Clouds will start to break during the afternoon while we dry out. Highs warm into the upper 40s.

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Skies continue to clear during the night leading to a mostly sunny start to the work week. Highs will be a few degrees warmer and should be able to top out at 50 in the Metro. A slight chance for rain will arrive later in the day and evening as some clouds build to our south and a cold front during the night sweeps through.

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We’ll get our first taste of colder air Tuesday. Bitter cold arrives Wednesday along with a chance for snow. Even though that’s still a few days out, amount and timing expectations are getting clearer. Snow showers should be light in nature while starting up in the late morning and ending in the late evening. Amounts could range from a dusting to several inches.

Ronelle Williams
Meteorologist (CBM) | KCTV5 News
4500 Shawnee Mission Pkwy
Fairway, KS 66205
T: 913-677-7235

Suchan Says: Rain, Snow, Arctic Cold

December 4, 2016 - Leave a Response
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Steady rain through tonight into some of Sunday morning

Oh we have it all over the next 7 days to be sure!  Rain will be confined to tonight through Sunday morning along with a slight chance very late Monday.  Otherwise the coming forecast is dominated by much colder temperatures and snow chances.

Sunday starts cloudy with areas of rain through the first part of the morning.  Of interest to me, it appears it may turn just cold enough in north central Missouri to support a mix or even change to wet snow.  Places like Bethany, Trenton, Chillicothe to Brookfield may all see some wet snow and perhaps even a light coating on mainly non-road surfaces.

All precipitation steadily moves east and out of the area by early afternoon.  Breaks of sun will gradually build in from west to east through the afternoon giving temperatures a boost into the mid to upper 40s.

Here are some Forecast Track images highlighting Sunday’s forecast.

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Sunday Early Morning

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Sunday Mid Morning

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Sunday Afternoon

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The first bout of Arctic cold is set to blast in by Wednesday of next week!  The core of this bitter cold pushes over Thursday and will certainly coincide with Thursday Night Football and the Chiefs’ game against Oakland.

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850mb temperatures off the GFS around -14C to -16C… December Arctic cold!

Some upper level energy along with a healthy 125+mph jet streak in the upper levels will pass by Wednesday along with the arctic cold frontal boundary.  It appears there is enough moisture to work with to generate flurries and snow showers through the day.  There are computer model discrepancies on how much snow at this stage of the forecast.  But here’s my first call on expectations.

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Should new data ahead change, I’ll certainly revise the forecast as necessary.  Of note, it’s a very dry powdery snow that would fall as well.  If we can tap into a decent snow band or two that day, snow to liquid ratios would be quite high, perhaps on the order of 17:1 or even 20:1.

Chris Suchan
Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

 

 

 

Williams’s Wrap: Snow Possible Saturday Night

December 3, 2016 - Leave a Response

 

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Saturday brings changes that we’ll be able to see and feel. Clouds have finally moved in and will keep highs in the low 40s. The Metro will have a chance for rain later in the day but showers should be light and hold off until the evening. Northeast KS will have an earlier chance for rain during the afternoon. But our chance will turn into a likelihood after midnight.

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As lows hover above freezing, areas north of the Metro could see some wet flakes and possibly a flurry for areas closer to the MO/IA border. Due to the surface remaining above freezing, any snow accumulation will be light and melt by Sunday morning. Clouds will start to break Sunday afternoon but sunshine will still be limited. Highs in the upper 40s will make the day feel a bit more comfortable.

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Ronelle Williams
Meteorologist (CBM) | KCTV5 News
4500 Shawnee Mission Pkwy
Fairway, KS 66205
T: 913-677-7235

Williams’s Wrap: Improving Temps and Weekend Rain?

December 2, 2016 - Leave a Response

A few more clouds hang around Friday but either way, expect good amounts of sunshine to kick off the weekend. Highs won’t feel too bad by December standards while reaching the mid to upper 40s.

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Clouds will be on the increase through Friday night and give way to a chance for rain late Saturday. Some stray flakes are possible to our extreme north (mainly near the MO/IA border) during the overnight but any showers that reach the Metro will be in the form of rain. A few sprinkles could linger into early Sunday morning but things will clear up through the day with breaks of sun. Highs Saturday will take a dip into the low 40s with a quick rebound into the upper 40s Sunday.

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Rain chances hang on into Monday and Tuesday before an arctic blast brings bitterly cold air to the region. Highs around the middle 30s early Wednesday won’t last long as temperatures continue dropping through the day. There’s also a chance for at least some flurries/light snow showers through Wednesday. While amounts are still unclear at this time, one thing for sure is the cold that we’ll be experiencing next week. Chiefs fans will definitely want to layer up for Thursday night football at Arrowhead Stadium.

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Ronelle Williams
Meteorologist (CBM) | KCTV5 News
4500 Shawnee Mission Pkwy
Fairway, KS 66205
T: 913-677-7235

Williams’s Wrap: Quiet and Cold Conditions

December 1, 2016 - Leave a Response

Thursday brings us more sunshine but the cold air will stick around. It’s also the first day of December! Morning temps in the 20s and 30s will only improve so much as they reach the low to mid 40s in the afternoon. Our winds have calmed down quite a bit and they’ll be out of the WNW at 5-10mph. Outside of the occasional light breeze, our winds shouldn’t give the air too much of a bite today.

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We’ll once again have more sunshine than clouds on Friday but highs will continue to hover around the middle 40s in Kansas City, which is pretty close to normal for this time of year. Rain chances return late-day Saturday and it’s still looking like we could see a few flakes mix into showers late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Very little to no accumulation is expected.

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Arctic air moves in Wednesday along with the chance for snow. We’ve still got a few days to answer the questions of how much, will it mix with any rain, and which areas will be most likely to see it. These questions will become more clear as we get closer to the weekend.

Ronelle Williams
Meteorologist (CBM) | KCTV5 News
4500 Shawnee Mission Pkwy
Fairway, KS 66205
T: 913-677-7235

Suchan Says: Looking Ahead

November 30, 2016 - Leave a Response

Seasonably cold weather has moved into the area and will take us straight into the upcoming weekend forecast.

Of some small interest, a small amount of moisture will likely pass through the region this weekend with just enough dynamics to squeeze out light rain showers or even some snow showers.  An examination of the temperature profile above shows a decent profile aloft for snow development with saturation just into the -10C favored snow growth region.  However, a shallow melt layer beneath these cold temperatures aloft presents problems for pure snow.  But it’s not a particularly stout melt layer and could be overcome.  End result, we’ll continue with a light rain possibly mixed with light snow forecast this weekend.

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Forecast sounding for late Saturday showing moisture and temperature

I wouldn’t expect much accumulation.  If everything lines up just right, perhaps a dusting or so in spots.  But that’s a big if.

Next week still has potential for a stronger system along with a shot of Arctic cold.  We’re going into a period over the next 2 to 3 days where model watching will generate anxiety for snow lovers.  Models are notorious for waffling back and forth 5+ days out which means a few runs could be a slam dunk for snow while flip flops to mainly rain or a near miss scenario are produced.  We are seeing some model waffling from yesterday to today.  Here’s an example…

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GFS model… tracking the 850mb thermal low from model run to model run. See the big difference in the track?! Latest run produces mainly rain followed by wrap around Arctic cold while last night was favorable for snow

My advice… be patient and give it a few days.  We’ll all watch latest trends together and see where models begin to converge on details.  Whether you want snow or not, avoid hitting the panic button until at least Friday or Saturday🙂

Chris Suchan
Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Suchan Says: Looking Ahead to Next Week

November 29, 2016 - Leave a Response

Weather the rest of this week remains rather tame with seasonably chilly temperatures moving back into the area Wednesday and holding in place into the weekend.  I still see signs of a few showers with perhaps a snowflake slipping in Saturday night to Sunday morning before moving out.  No accumulation or problems expected as temperatures in the morning should be in the mid 30s.

Jumping ahead to the middle of next week, a potent system is possible by the middle of the week as the season’s first shot of Arctic cold surges south.  Meanwhile a deep upper trough is swinging through the Rockies heading toward the Plains.   Low pressure development to the lee of the Rockies is likely in this scenario with rapid deepening and strengthening.

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GFS has an aggressive 500mb upper trough digging into the Plains associated with strengthening surface low

Latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF favor a bullseye track just north to northwest of our viewing area but this is 8 or so days out.  Nothing is in concrete as far as exact tracks are concerned.

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Off the 12Z GFS model run… this image is for Wednesday night. In this image, that’s wrap around snow into our area after soaking rain Wednesday

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12Z ECMWF run… this image is for Wednesday. Low pressure tracks just north of Kansas City with heaviest snow totals staying just north-northwest of us (using this storm track)

Taking this modeled forecast track at face value, rain moves in with even a little thunder possible.  Rain would then mix with snow as colder air begins to wrap into the region and a change to snow before ending would be likely.   This would keep the heaviest snow totals just north of us but our northern zones would be able to see a bit of accumulation.

Also of note, the brutal Arctic cold.  With a potential fresh snowpack and very cold air surging across it into our area, Thursday looks extremely cold compared to what we’ve seen.  KEEP THIS IN MIND for the big Chiefs’ game against the Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium for Thursday Night Football.

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Arctic cold slamming into the area behind the system Thursday

We’ll be continually updating forecast details in the coming days on next week’s forecast.  Updates here on our weather blog as new information comes out BUT also on our social media pages.

On Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/

On Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV

Chris Suchan
Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Teachman’s Take: Warming Sunshine Soon

November 25, 2016 - Leave a Response

Temperatures first step out the door for Black Friday won’t be nearly as bitter as previous years.  Temperatures will be in the 30s.  Clouds are expected to depart, giving us lots of sunshine.  Highs this afternoon will be mild in the lower 50s.

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Over the weekend, temps keep building into the upper 50s and lower 60s.  Sunshine dominates Saturday — it will be an ideal day for shopping or playing football outside with the family.  Clouds return on Sunday and late in the day rain showers are likely.  This rain will continue into Monday.  We’ll have to continue to monitor the colder air that comes in behind this rain.  It still looks possible for a few snowflakes to form Monday into Tuesday, mainly to the east of KC.  Highs next week drop into the 40s.

Take care,

Teach

Teachman’s Take: Temps Turn Milder

November 24, 2016 - Leave a Response

Clouds will be hanging around for Thanksgiving — finally giving way to a little more sunshine by this afternoon.

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After a cold start in the 30s, we’ll warm just above the norm in the middle 50s.  There’s a slight chance for a few showers between 4 and 8 PM along the Missouri/Iowa state line.  Mostly cloudy skies with chilly temperatures in the 40s will greet folks checking out the Plaza Lighting Ceremony this evening.

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Early morning shoppers won’t be in the brutal cold with temps in the middle 30s.  Sunshine will return and stick around through Saturday.  Highs on Friday will be mild in the middle 50s.
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Even warmer Saturday and Sunday in the lower 60s.  We’re still tracking a storm system that will bring us rain late Sunday and into Monday.  We’ll continue to monitor the leftover moisture as the colder air arrives late Monday into Tuesday.  Better chances for snow look to be farther north from Iowa through the Great Lakes region.  Highs next week will fall into the 40s with lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Take care,
Teach

Teachman’s Take: Goodbye Showers And Hello To A Warm Up

November 23, 2016 - Leave a Response

Showers will be tapering to the east of KC Wednesday morning and a patch of mist cannot be ruled out.

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Clouds will be stubborn to break up.  Expect mostly cloudy skies today with slightly cooler temperatures.  We’ll start the morning in the middle 40s and not warm much through the afternoon – only to the upper 40s.

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Sunshine returns early in the day on Thanksgiving.  Temperatures will start to warm into the middle 50s.  The morning of Black Friday won’t be too bitter – in the middle 30s.  We’ll be in the middle 50s Friday afternoon and bump up to near 60 on Saturday.  There is a storm system for the end of the weekend and into early next week.  Rain is the most likely element.  BUT, if enough cold air can be brought down before the moisture exits to the east, snowflakes cannot be ruled out especially in northern Kansas and Missouri.  Highs next week will be cooler in the 40s.
Take care,
Teach