Totals are for the past 2 days
In the wake of early day showers and thunderstorms a rather pleasant summer day is in progress, but in the pattern we’ve been in, I’m already looking ahead to the next chance of rain.
At the moment it appears being in the wake of the early day rain which was triggered by a disturbance we call a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is lending to a more stable environment where the chance to develop thunderstorms is greatly hindered. I’m just not expecting much the rest of this afternoon with only an isolated chance this evening in southern sections which by in large missed out on much of the early day rain.
All signs point toward late evening and overnight developing showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of the area that lift north through the night leading to a wet morning commute Friday.
These storms would not be as strong as Wednesday evening and the overall severe risk is much lower.
Later Friday, additional showers or storms are possible. Some of these storms could have hail and wind gusts with an isolated severe risk likely.
Here are some forecast maps giving you an idea on the rain chance and where into tonight through Friday morning’s commute.
Late Evening: Southern part of the area could see a few showers or a thunderstorm
Midnight: Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms spreading north into the metro
Friday Morning: Showers or thunderstorms a part of the morning commute
The morning drive will be a little damp as showers and thunderstorms wrap up. While a midday shower is possible, it looks like there could be another wave of stronger storms by evening. Heavy rain and frequent lightning is possible with any storm. Highs today will be slightly cooler in the lower 80s.
Our unsettled pattern will stick around through next Thursday! The weekend won’t be a total washout, but plan “B” is definitely a good idea as shower and thunderstorms will be possible. Highs over the weekend will inch back into the middle 80s.
Tonight could be a bumpy one for most of our area as thunderstorms move in from the southwest. There is a slight risk for a few of those storms to become strong or severe with large hail and strong winds the primary threat. While conditions don’t favor tornadoes there is still a very small chance that an isolated tornado or two could spin down especially during the late evening hours. Here’s a look at that latest severe weather risk area from the Storm Prediction Center:
As you can see the slight risk ( yellow ) cover most of the KCTV5 viewing area with a marginal risk ( green ) covering the rest.
The timing of the storms is still in question but most of the modeling data now suggests the storms will approach the Kansas City Metro about two hours after sunset. The western part of our southern zones could get into the act just prior or very near sunset. This is a look at Storm Track 5 Forecast Track which shows strong storms approaching the Metro around 9:00 PM this evening:
If this holds true then we can expect to hear thunder around 9:30 PM with the gust front hitting the area around the same time. That will be followed by heavy rain, ( possible hail ) and additional down-burst winds just about the time many are getting ready for bed.
Heavy rain is also possible in the Metro area which has now been included in the Flood Watch.
Judging from this is clear that the greatest potential for flooding will be in areas north of I-70. That certainly doesn’t mean that areas south of the Interstate are in the clear but the greatest threat will include areas from the Metro to St. Joseph then north through Maryville. The I-35 corridor will also be impacted by heavy rain overnight from the Kansas City Metro all the way to the Iowa border. Get ready for a bumpy ride overnight. We certainly are in the Storm Track 5 WeatherCenter!
Showers and thunderstorms will stick around through the morning commute, especially for folks along and north of I-70. A spotty shower or storm cannot be ruled out this morning south of I-70. There could be a random shower throughout the day, but the atmosphere gets jazzed for another round of stronger storms by early evening. These storms could produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty winds and even hail. There is a Flash Flood Watch in effect this evening through Thursday morning for northern Missouri where the heaviest of the rain is expected to track. Today will be a steamy day in the upper 80s. A Flash Flood Watch goes into effect this evening:
Today’s Severe Storm Risk:
A Flash Flood Watch goes into effect this evening:
Overnight, showers and thunderstorms are possible. And we’ll stay in this unsettled pattern with at least a chance for some rain each day through next Tuesday. Highs will be muggy in the 80s with overnight lows near 70.
Tracking storms into the area overnight
Showers and thunderstorms will spread across parts of the area tonight with particular emphasis on the northern half of the viewing region or north of I-70. Some of these storms could produce brief wind gusts. In fact, storms dropping southeast out of Iowa and Nebraska have had a history through midnight of producing 45 – 55mph wind gusts. This will be possible in extreme northern Missouri as they move in.
Elsewhere, storms in northeastern Kansas are producing quite a bit of lightning and could have small hail with brief wind gusts of 35 – 45mph as well. It’s possible as they continue to move east to northeast, an isolated stronger wind gust could occur.
Overall chances for severe weather tonight will remain more isolated and I wouldn’t rule out a warning or two for a brief 55 – 60mph wind gust before storms completely weaken deeper into tonight.
The next chance for storms will arrive later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Some of these storms would have the ability to produce brief strong wind gusts and large hail. Highs Wednesday will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Late Tonight: Showers or thunderstorms in northern half of the area
Afternoon: Hot with a few storms possible especially to the north – northwest
Evening: Scattered storms in the area
Wednesday Night: Showers or thunderstorms possible in the area
Clouds will be on the increase this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will fire up late morning and early afternoon in spots south of I-70. Heavy rain is a possibility along with frequent lightning. These storms will cluster together and travel into central Missouri by mid-afternoon. By evening, another area for thunderstorms to watch will be across northwestern Missouri. Some of these storms could be strong with gusty winds and hail. The humidity will climb today and temperatures will warm into the lower 80s.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday. Temps will fall into the upper 70s by Thursday. We may see most of our Friday dry before another rain chance arrives by Saturday. Highs over the weekend will be in the middle to upper 80s.
After a string of outstanding days of weather, Tuesday shifts back toward a daily rain chance that should carry us through much of the week ahead.
In the morning I expect to see a low deck of stratus clouds build across. Breezes will stay up early in the morning which should keep fog from becoming well established. A few sprinkles from these clouds are possible but overall, I fully expect dry roads for the morning commute.
By midday, a few breaks in the clouds for sun will develop giving temperatures a boost into the 70s to lower 80s. Meanwhile, an upper level disturbance will be pushing across Nebraska with possibly a second weaker disturbance to our south. The combination of these features with an unstable atmosphere should be sufficient to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Of note Tuesday, forecast wind shear values are actually high enough to warrant some attention to storms with healthy updrafts as there could be some measure of organization resulting in larger hail and brief strong wind gusts. I do see an isolated severe risk through the day and if we heat up more than I’m expecting as of now, the severe risk would increase.
Morning: Fairly cloudy skies build across
Afternoon: Scattered showers or thunderstorms across the area
Late Evening: Still a few showers or storms in the area
I couldn’t be happier that September is almost here. I love the cool mornings, low humidity and mild afternoons and now that I have a new set of hours I can’t wait to enjoy the evenings too! Unfortunately we are all wired a little differently so as not to offend or leave anyone out I should add that many people actually dread this time of year. Why? RAGWEED!
Yes, it’s that time of year again when that ( not so ) pretty little flowering plant releases pollen by the metric ton into the Kansas and Missouri air. For some it’s just a harmless little weed:
But for others it’s a medical nightmare. Those towering little flowers are a moderate to dull yellow in color and if you pay attention to weedy areas or road ditches you have likely seen millions of these plants. The flowering tops are just now releasing pollen which will be a daily occurrence until the first hard freeze settles in which typically happens in October. The Ragweed number is high right now but it will no doubt go much higher in the coming weeks.
Some common symptoms include watery eyes, runny nose, scratchy throat and sneezing. Hay fever is a common term used for people who are less than thrilled with this time of year and the annoyance it brings.
With ragweed you might notice worsening symptoms in the morning when the pollen level is at its highest point. Some who are mild hay fever sufferers may get away with avoiding the outdoors as much as possible, keeping their windows closed or wearing a mask if venturing outdoors. That’s a nice option but if that doesn’t cut the mustard then medical help is required. Sometimes an over the counter medicine will do the job but for some this time of year means a trip to the doctor, prescription meds, or possibly a SHOT! OUCH!
For those who look forward to September weather I say enjoy, but for all of you with hay fever I can only say, “I’m sorry.” Have a great day everyone.
It is going to be a beautiful day…again! After a cool and clear start in the upper 50s, temperatures will warm to just below the norm at 85. Sunshine dominates through this afternoon.
Overnight, clouds will crowd. There is a slight chance for a shower well east of the KC Metro by dawn. Better rain chances are in store by afternoon as conditions become muggy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Rain chances linger through Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll make a slight dip to the upper 70s Thursday and Friday. Unsettled skies will stick around through early next week. If you’re looking for drier days, right now it looks like Friday and Sunday might be our best bets.
Showers and storms have moved out only to be replaced by much cooler air. Saturday will have a “fall feel” for sure with cloudy skies in the morning, temperatures starting off in the 60s, and a few random sprinkles (mainly during the morning). Skies turn partly cloudy by the afternoon and eventually mostly clear by the evening. Temperatures see little improvement and stay cool as highs only reach the mid/upper 70s. Winds will pick up too and gust up to 25-30 mph.
High pressure will continue to build in from the west behind the Friday/Saturday cold front as it moves through AR and the Ohio Valley. Expect full-on sunshine Sunday with pleasant high temperatures in the low 80s. A near perfect weekend ahead!
Meteorologist (CBM) | KCTV5 News
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