Amble’s Ramble

May 24, 2018 - Leave a Response

Summer months are exciting because kids are free from school and able to spend hours relaxing at the pool or anything else that strikes their fancy. But when you really break down the summer months is it really worth the wait? Check out the heat that’s coming this weekend:

Weekend

90 degree days with the heat index close to 100 on a few occasions. That kind of heat is almost unbearable unless you have a way to stay cool. Area pools will be full for sure with others escaping indoors to an air conditioned climate which I argue is the same as escaping the cold for the comfort of a warm house.

Temperatures are just one aspect of summer that some people either love or dread. Another is the pollen in the air:

Pollen

Our pollen count is high but the difference today is the predominant pollen is now grass instead of tree pollen. This is much more typical of the summer months. Ragweed has yet to spread it’s joy across the area but it’s coming soon.

Pollen doesn’t impact everyone the same. Some can deal with it without even noticing it’s in the air while others fight allergic reactions which make them miserable for months on end.

I enjoy every season mostly because I enjoy the change but I’m fully aware that one persons joy is another persons misery. Like it or not summer is here.

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Brett’s Blog (Drought Update)

May 24, 2018 - Leave a Response

Drought Relief ?  We got a little! Needed rainfall eased the drought in parts of Oklahoma, southwestern Kansas and Texas. Two to six inches of rain fell in many of the driest yards and fields across the central U-S!  But here in Kansas City, “Drought” stayed about the same since the middle of May.

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Rains have been mostly hit and miss. We’ve had a couple widespread rain events this month. Thankfully, one of those early in May supplied a surplus that is helping to keep drought from deepening.

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Still, going back to March 1st or the start of meteorological Spring, rainfall is three inches below average.  It would be nice to get a heavy soaking rain before drier Summer weather settles into the region.  But the rest of May doesn’t hold out much hope.

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The above map suggests the main storm track will stay north of Kansas City for the rest of the month.  This may also mean Kansas City won’t see much relief from heat and we may to rely on pop thunderstorms or night-time thunderstorm complexes to bring us rain.  There is a silver lining.  Below average rainfall also means relief from Spring severe storms.  More on that in another blog.

Brett’s Blog (May’s Swan Song Includes Summer Swelter)

May 23, 2018 - Leave a Response

So far May has simmered but it’s about to swelter.  Memorial Day weekend looks almost hot! Why? The winds aloft hold the key and it looks like a Summer weather pattern.

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The main storm track runs over the Rockies and into the Canada. This has opened up the heat pump from the desert southwest. So through the end of month look for highs to be near 90.  And don’t look for much rain. The absence of a strong cold front means we have to rely on isolated pop-up showers or thunderstorms for any relief.  But this is all great news if you are looking for a “Great Lake Weekend” Highs at area lakes will be near 90 with a small chance for an afternoon thunderstorm, otherwise dry and Summer-like for the unofficial start to Summer. So June will start off hot before a cold front arrives during the first weekend of the next month.

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A cold front sweeps through and by June 4th or 5th there is potential for highs to only be in the 70s.  Cooler highs bring less humidity. Enjoy the break from early Summer-like heat because it won’t last long. A more Summer-like pattern will be taking over the for the middle of June!  That spells many great Lake and pool days are just a couple of weeks away.

🔥🔥🔥 Three Peat Heat 🔥🔥🔥

May 23, 2018 - Leave a Response

Not sure it’s the repeat we would like – 3 days – the entire holiday weekend in the 90s. Find someplace to stay cool for the weekend my friends!!

Side note – Normal High Temp for KC 77°

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Williams’s Wrap: Cooler, Damp Sunday

May 20, 2018 - Leave a Response

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On and off rain and thunder will last through all of Sunday. Even though it won’t be raining all the time its still worth keeping rain gear close by, especially if you have outdoor plans.

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Today’s severe risk is very low but a stronger storm could bring some gusts or small hail. Rain lasting through much of the day will keep high temperatures in the 70s.

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There’s a small chance for some mist or drizzle during the overnight and into Monday morning. But the start of the new work week won’t be damp all day. We should dry out into Monday afternoon as some sun breaks free with highs around 80. The chance of rain and storms will linger through the rest of the week though.

Ronelle Williams
Meteorologist (CBM) | KCTV5 News
4500 Shawnee Mission Pkwy
Fairway, KS 66205
T: 913-677-7235

Williams’s Wrap: Saturday Severe Risk Update

May 19, 2018 - Leave a Response

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A few morning showers and storms will continue to push through the area but will wrap up by late morning. We’ll spend a good portion of the afternoon drying out before another round of storms moves in, mainly after 5pm and through the evening.

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Late day storms could be strong/severe and produce large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. It’s very important to stay weather aware, have a plan and a way to receive warnings.

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Scattered rain and thunder will continue after midnight but eventually lead to a drier end to the weekend. Sunday’s rain/t-storm chance is only 30% and the threat of severe weather will be very low.

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Ronelle Williams
Meteorologist (CBM) | KCTV5 News
4500 Shawnee Mission Pkwy
Fairway, KS 66205
T: 913-677-7235

Brett’s Blog (Updated Weekend Outlook)

May 18, 2018 - Leave a Response

Time to think about Plan B!  Rain chances are increasing for Saturday. Here is a timeline for rain.  The best chance of rain happens Saturday morning and again Saturday evening.

Graph_Precipitation_Trend Next 14 Hours

There is also a chance that thunderstorms Saturday evening will have some damaging winds and potentially large hail.  The Storm Prediction Center agrees putting half of Kansas City in an enhanced risk of severe weather and the other half of the metro in a slight risk.

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There is also a chance for a tornado warning!  Here’s what those risks mean!

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Right now there is a 60% chance of rain and thunderstorms.  So there is a chance your backyard gets brushed or missed by these clusters of thunderstorms Saturday evening.  Here is a snapshot of what Live Power Doppler could look like Saturday around 8:00 PM.

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If these robust thunderstorms miss you, then fine, Plan A is still good but with the threat increasing for Saturday night, it’s best to have a Plan B!

 

 

Brett’s Blog (Weekend Thunderstorm Threat)

May 17, 2018 - Leave a Response

Got a party planned this weekend? Keep your eyes on the sky.  We’ve got a weather system that could crash the party.  Any maybe not. Depends when and where you’re having the big shin-dig!  It’s going to be nice and almost hot! Storm Set Up

But it will also be humid. Not much effort needed to work up a sweat this weekend.

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That humidity goes all the way to Lake Superior! That’s juice for thunderstorms.  And since it’s heating up into the mid and upper 80s. There will be a lot of energy for strong thunderstorms.

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Yep, that instability will be very high. We will have plenty of bubbling cumulus clouds but we still need a spark to light that fuse and make those thunderstorms erupt.  What will it be?  How about a storm in western Kansas that lifts a warm front into Iowa then drags a cold front across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.  Thunderstorms could start forming around sunset Saturday evening. Surface 5

So any party after 7 PM has a chance to be washed away by rain, thunder, lightning and wind.  And this thunderstorm threat could go all the way into the wee hours of Sunday morning.  At this time the Storm Prediction Center  has a our area under a marginal to slight risk of severe weather. Surface 4.png

The biggest threats are quarter sized hail to baseball sized hail but there is also a low tornado threat in the area below highlighted in gray.

Forecast Tornado Threat

Should you cancel your plans?  If the party is happening during the day, NO! If the party is happening after 5 PM, I would start to think about plan B.  But I would wait a day before cancelling.  There is still a chance most of this bad weather shifts farther north away from KC until the early morning hours of Sunday.  So keep an eye on the weather forecasts, there’s a still chance for party crashing storms to stay away from our celebrations.

 

 

 

SEVERE STORM RISK SATURDAY

May 17, 2018 - Leave a Response

SEVERE STORM RISK SATURDAY

Heads up for this weekend – severe storm risk just NW of KC late Saturday evening into early Sunday. Stay connected with us KCTV5 News Kansas City as we fine tune weekend rainfall chances the next 36 hours.

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Williams’s Wrap: Drier Until The Weekend

May 16, 2018 - Leave a Response

Even though we can’t get away from rain chances just yet, the next few days are looking drier. Most of Wednesday will stay dry but a pop up shower or t-storm is possible from afternoon to early evening. Our stretch of above normal temperatures continues as we reach the low 80s.

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Thursday will be dry and warm but then late-day Friday there’s a chance for a shower or storm. Rain looks more likely by the time we get into the weekend, especially Saturday. But the potential for any severe weather is looking low at this time.

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Ronelle Williams
Meteorologist (CBM) | KCTV5 News
4500 Shawnee Mission Pkwy
Fairway, KS 66205
T: 913-677-7235