Amble’s Ramble

July 1, 2015 - Leave a Response

Severe storms are possible late this afternoon into the evening hours. The SPC has much of the KCTV5 viewing area within the boundaries of a Slight Risk for severe weather:

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Even though strong winds and large hail will be the primary threat, dynamics favor a few isolated tornadoes too.  The vertical wind shear is favorable for “spinning” storms. The model run from this morning shows the winds veering from the surface to about 20,000 feet by 180 degrees. That’s rather impressive.  That means the winds at the surface are expected to blow out of the southeast this afternoon with winds at 20,000 feet blowing out of the northwest, the complete opposite direction!  With each incremental rise in height the wind shifts a few degrees so at bout 10,000 feet the winds will favor the southwest. Moist air at the surface coupled with afternoon heating (which will send temperatures into the upper 80s) will make for a very buoyant environment. A small but substantial shortwave, kind of a mid level low, will work into northern Missouri this afternoon supplying the added lift to get the storms rolling.

This all sounds pretty favorable for storms but there are quite a few question marks like, where will the storms originate? Will there be a long period of isolation ( storms with space ) before clusters or line segments form? Can the atmosphere recover over central Missouri where clouds and rain held temperatures in the 70s through noon?  The forecast is complex without question but as the afternoon wears on those questions will quickly be answered.

As it stands right now I would plan on strong storms developing this afternoon near or north of the Metro with most of the Metro experiencing rain between 5:00 PM and 6:00 PM. Those storms will clear the area by 7:00 PM.  That time frame could be altered if the storms originate either north, south or east of the metro …all of those are still possible scenarios.

You can stay on top of this rapidly changing forecast by downloading the FREE KCTV5 weather App on your Smart Phone right now.

Amble’s Ramble

July 1, 2015 - Leave a Response

Remember last summer when you couldn’t scare up a raindrop and everyone’s lawn turned brown?  Well, it wasn’t the month of June that caused it.  In 2014 June recorded 6.64 inches of rain, we were soaked.  Unfortunately most of that rain fell in the first three weeks of the month meaning the soils began to dry down well before July started.

This year offers a better start to the summer.  Even though we are an inch and a half behind last year we are in much better shape because of the wet weather spread out over the past several months.  So far in 2015 almost 24 inches of rain has fallen. That puts us over 8 inches ahead of last year.  Considering how our rain in 2015 has been spread out over several months it has allowed the sub-soil to regenerate with moisture. That’s really important.

The forecast over the next week doesn’t call for heavy rains but there is a chance for showers almost every day.  The rain will likely be spotty but nearly everyone should pick up a little rain over the coming week.  Here’s a look at the next 60 hours:

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June ended with above normal rainfall, now we need to keep this trend going in July!

Suchan Says: 2:25am Update on Rain and Storms

June 30, 2015 - Leave a Response

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** Update **

Strongest storms are moving southeast of the metro and are still capable of brief strong wind gusts, some hail, frequent lightning and torrential rainfall.  Additional showers and thunderstorms are developing northwest of the KC metro and will likely push southeast over next several hours.

The Storm Prediction Center does not anticipate issuing a Severe T-Storm Watch given the isolated severe risk in place per their most recent discussion.

 

** Earlier Blog Post from 11:20pm **

Another stormy night is on the way with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area.  While I do not expect as intense a cluster of storms as we saw late last week with damaging winds, I do expect at least an isolated risk for a couple stronger storms with brief wind gusts and frequent lightning.  Of a higher concern is the potential for locally heavy rain and flooding potential.  Despite a few relatively dry days, we simply cannot handle an abundance of water in a short amount of time which you traditionally find from thunderstorms.

Forecast rain amounts tonight through Wednesday evening

Forecast rain amounts tonight through Wednesday evening

Flash Flood Watch for our eastern counties

Flash Flood Watch for our eastern third of counties

As a quick moving disturbance passes overhead tonight and combines with a developing low level jet across the Plains to Midwest, we should see a gradual increase in the coverage of showers and storms through tonight.  A few storms may cluster together and bow out with brief wind gusts through daybreak.

Rain chances will dip to 20% by early afternoon before the atmosphere recharges for a round of scattered thunderstorms later in the afternoon to early evening.  We will need to monitor these late day storms as there will be some potential for strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts.  Of interest to me, will the Storm Prediction Center upgrade some of our counties up into the I-70 corridor into at least a “slight risk” for severe storms.  Right now a “Marginal Risk” covers this corridor but I see some potential for an increase to this outlook.  We’ll find out in the next update around or prior to 1:00am.

High temperatures Wednesday will struggle into midday before bigger breaks of sun work in for a quick spike into the mid to upper 80s.

Wednesday Planner Forecast

Wednesday Planner Forecast

Tonight:  Showers and thunderstorms

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms

Early Morning:  Showers and thunderstorms

Early Morning: Showers and thunderstorms

Early Afternoon:  Isolated rain chance

Early Afternoon: Isolated rain chance

Late Afternoon to Early Evening:  Scattered pop up storms (could be strong to severe)

Late Afternoon to Early Evening: Scattered pop up storms (could be strong to severe)

4th of July

As of right now, it appears we could time out the pattern just right to usher in a briefly drier stretch of weather Saturday where the rain chance dips to an isolated 20% chance with partly sunny skies.  I’m feeling optimistic about decent weather as we head into the evening with nothing more than a stray storm or two anywhere in the viewing area.  Highs around 84 which is an added bonus provided this forecast remains as is :)

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
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Amble’s Ramble

June 30, 2015 - Leave a Response

Its Independence Day weekend and the forecast looks pretty good.  Even though rain chances will be present every day from Friday through Monday there will be plenty of long breaks between showers to allow for abundant outdoor fun time.  The weather should stay quiet enough for you to hit the pool, lake, park or backyard. Keep an eye on the sky and an ear to the sky so if a shower or storm pops up you can safely retreat into shelter.

Almost every night will offer fireworks displays. I’ll focus on Saturday night:

Outside of the slight rain chance and mild temperatures you can also expect a breezy evening with southeast winds blowing in from 10 to 18 MPH.  When finding a place to sit make sure you factor in the wind. The highest projectiles, typically 500 feet, will drift northwest from the launch site.

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Be ready to pack a light jacket, a blanket, possibly some snacks and a drink. Unless this forecast changes you’ll be wise to toss a couple umbrellas in the car just to be safe. At last check the rain chances over the area will be about 20% after sunset Saturday. By the way sunset is roughly 8:49 on Saturday.

You can also check back into this web site for a complete list of fireworks locations across the Metro and surrounding areas.  Have a great 4th everyone!

Suchan Says: Timeline of Next Round of Storms

June 29, 2015 - Leave a Response

First off, did you happen to notice the ultra red / orange tint to the setting sun earlier or the orange moon out late this evening?  Both are the direct result of wildfires active way up in Canada and upper level winds are carrying the massive smoke plume into our skies.  The smoke particulates are filtering out the light that reaches our eye leaving orange and some measure of red as the dominate colors we see from the spectrum.

Photo by Kemberly Creager

Photo by Kemberly Creager

Photo by Kimmie Totten

Photo by Kimmie Totten

Visible satellite image from earlier showing smoke plume moving southeast into our skies

Visible satellite image from earlier showing smoke plume moving southeast into our skies

Monday brought a beautiful summer day to the area with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and not a “single drop of rain” most importantly!  Anytime we can get a day in the books without a single shower or storm feels like a notch in the win column to me anymore!!

Wouldn’t you know it, Tuesday brings the return of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast but the best chance of rain occurs deeper into the day.  Much of Tuesday is nothing more than a mix of clouds and hot sunshine before we turn our attention to radar and storm chances.  High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s in the afternoon.

The overall pattern we’re in is a “northwest flow” pattern which can bring some comfortable days to the area (like Monday) but also runs the risk of occasional disturbances in the atmosphere zipping across our skies kicking up showers and storms.

Here’s a look at the rainfall timeline Tuesday.  Again note the bulk of which is reserved for late in the day especially Tuesday night.

Tuesday morning looking nice

Tuesday morning looking nice

Tuesday afternoon... a couple of pop up showers or a t-storm possible

Tuesday afternoon… a couple of pop up showers or a t-storm possible

Tuesday evening... isolated to scattered t-storms possible

Tuesday evening… isolated to scattered t-storms possible

Tuesday late evening... t-storm chances increasing into Tuesday night

Tuesday late evening… t-storm chances increasing into Tuesday night

The severe risk is on the lower side but I wouldn’t rule out a few stronger storms.  As of now, I do NOT expect anything of the magnitude we saw last Thursday night.  Of some concern, the possibility of locally heavy rainfall from storms where a few spots could see in excess of 2 inches of rain locally.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl

Hawila’s Heads-Up: Sunday Storms

June 28, 2015 - Leave a Response

After a PERFECT first half of the weekend, it makes it especially difficult to even mention the words “rain” or “storm.” But we do have a risk for scattered showers and storms today. There’s a brief shower rolling through the north side of KC. Here’s a look at it on Live Power Doppler and then  what it looks like looking north from out Diagnostic Imaging Centers Tower Cam blog_6 blog_7

Pretty cool, huh? Looking ahead to the afternoon. Areas mainly south and east of KC are under a risk for strong to severe storms. The risk will remain isolated in nature. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns with the strongest storms. Forecast track shows the development of these storms in the mid afternoon.

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Hawila’s Heads-Up: Saturday Looks Beautiful!

June 27, 2015 - Leave a Response

First of all, happy weekend! Today is going to be a great day with comfortable temperatures and plenty of sunshine. This morning, temperatures started off in the lower 60s which was very refreshing. This afternoon we’ll climb to high temperatures near 80° with tolerable humidity.

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Now, you may have noticed the rain icon there for the late afternoon/early evening. There is a slim chance for isolated pop showers or thundershowers to get thrown into the mix late this afternoon near peak heating. The window for this is small and expect most, if not all of us, to stay dry all day. Either way, it will be a great Saturday. Sunday features a better chance for scattered showers in storms in the late afternoon and evening. It will be warmer too with highs in the upper 80s.

Suchan Says: Nice Weekend But Some Storms Possible

June 26, 2015 - Leave a Response

Much quieter weather is settling into the area behind last night’s massive complex of storms.  Temperatures are also going to cool nicely to near 60 by sunrise!!

Saturday looks like a very nice day.  Analyzing the afternoon atmosphere, it will become unstable and typically I would be looking at thunderstorm chances.  However, it just appears too dry to support thunderstorm development and I will continue a dry forecast.  But I think it’s worth watching those afternoon fair weather clouds to see if any of them can get their act together to develop a random very isolated storm.  Overall though my expectations are for a dry and very pleasant afternoon near 80.

A look at Sunday, it’s actually a pretty decent day.  My concern is for late afternoon into the evening where a quick moving disturbance and associated cool front will slide over the area.  I continue to see evidence of developing thunderstorms from northern Missouri working south across the area to finish the day.  I also can’t rule out a stronger storm with hail and brief wind gusts.  Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 80s!

Here are a couple of computer model images of what I see Sunday.

GFS model... Sunday Morning

GFS model… Sunday Morning

GFS model... Sunday evening

GFS model… Sunday evening

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Saturday Evening Rolling Stones Concert !

Saturday Evening Rolling Stones Concert !

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl

Suchan Says: 1:52am Update… Severe Storms and Flooding

June 25, 2015 - Leave a Response
Severe storms moving across

Severe storms moving across

 

Complex of storms moving across the metro is now pushing out 70+mph wind gusts and frequent lightning!  Severe T-Storm Warnings are in effect as this line races across to the southeast at 50mph.

 

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist

Earlier blog entry below…

An earlier round of storms produced quick flash flooding in Saline County, MO where 4″ to around 7″ of rain fell from two thunderstorms “training” over the same area.  We very well could see a similar episode evolve tonight for many more locations as the next round of storms is in the process of taking shape.

The Weather Prediction Center (formerly the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) has issued a mesoscale discussion for our area tonight with likely flash flooding in the overnight forecast.  Rainfall rates could press between 2″ to 3″ / hour as a large complex of storms organize and rumble across the area.

Mesoscale discussion on flash flood potential tonight

Mesoscale discussion on flash flood potential tonight

Flash Flood Watch tonight

Flash Flood Watch tonight

Next round of storms developing

Next round of storms developing

Storms in Kansas, southeast Nebraska into northwestern Missouri should continue increase in coverage tonight

Storms in Kansas, southeast Nebraska into northwestern Missouri should continue increase in coverage tonight

Forecast rain amounts

Forecast rain amounts

Forecast clouds and radar middle of the night

Forecast clouds and radar middle of the night

Storms gradually moving south early in the morning leaving patchy rain over the area

Storms gradually moving south early in the morning leaving patchy rain over the area

Friday afternoon will have a lower 30% chance of a shower or weak thunderstorm then completely drying out by evening.  Saturday looks very nice and Sunday is a decent day followed by late day scattered thunderstorms (30% chance).

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

Suchan Says: 8:15pm Update on Storms

June 25, 2015 - Leave a Response

Much of the area is now getting into a lull after our round of strong to severe storms earlier this evening.  We’ll now watch for the next round of storms to develop later this evening and into tonight.

I’ve seen many reports of hail from this round of storms with some wind damage in central Missouri.  Most of the wind damage reports have been tree limbs brought down by 60mph+ wind gusts!   There has also been some localized flooding from these storms.

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More storms to push through overnight

More storms to push through overnight

The next round to arrive could very well take till after 10pm to move in.  The severe risk overnight will tend to diminish but the risk for localized flooding very much remains a concern.  Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of the area.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl

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