Williams’s Wrap: Cool & A Little Wet

April 21, 2018 - Leave a Response

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A chance of rain will be on the increase after sunrise. While chances won’t be great it’ll still lead to some on/off showers, especially south and west of Kansas City. Highs will be in the 50s to low 60s so on top of Saturday being a little wet, it’ll be cool too.

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A slightly better chance of rain moves in late tonight and lingers into Sunday but the majority will fall south of Kansas City again. We’ll slowly dry out through the end of the weekend with rain wrapping up by Sunday evening but it’ll still be cool with highs around 60.

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Ronelle Williams
Meteorologist (CBM) | KCTV5 News
4500 Shawnee Mission Pkwy
Fairway, KS 66205
T: 913-677-7235
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Brett’s Blog (Weekend Rain Chances)

April 20, 2018 - Leave a Response

April showers are on the way. It’s about time! Kansas City is more than an inch behind in rainfall for the month and two inches below average for the year! So we need it. But as many have told me, “NOT THIS WEEKEND, I’ve got plans!”  Sorry, but rain looks likely. Not all day but for a few hours Saturday and a few hours on Sunday.  Why?  Blame it on this storm currently spinning and gaining strength in the southern plains.

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It’s pulling in plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and as of Friday evening had produced a quarter inch of rain over drought stricken, western Oklahoma.  Thunderstorms are expected overnight into Saturday morning across Oklahoma and Texas.  Meantime, here is Kansas City, we’re on the northern edge of this storm. So there is a chance you won’t get any rain and there is a chance you will get a lot of rain. Sounds like a snowstorm doesn’t it.   Let’s answer a few questions to get to the bottom of the forecast.

  1. Will it rain all day?  No, but it will rain for a few hours on Saturday. It appears the time frame is somewhere between 9 AM & 2 PM.

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2. Will it rain Saturday night? Not likely, the rain should taper to just a few hit and miss showers by late afternoon, leaving most of us dry Saturday night into the overnight hours of early Sunday.  But when the main storm moves into Arkansas Sunday morning, the rain associated with the storm will move back into the Kansas City area from the south and southeast.

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3. Will it rain all day Sunday.  No, but it will rain for several hours Sunday morning, from Kansas City all the way south into Arkansas. But as the storm moves into eastern Arkansas Sunday afternoon the rain will end in KC and we will warm to near 60.

4.) How much rain will fall?  This depends where you live.  If you live near highway 36, less than a tenth of an inch of rain.  If you live between Garnett Kansas and Clinton Missouri then you can expect more than an inch of rain from this storm.

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So get ready April showers are on the way!  At least I didn’t say April snow-showers this time.  Have a great weekend!

Brett’s Blog (Just how cold has it been this month)

April 16, 2018 - Leave a Response

April came in with a bang, remember it snowed on Easter, and really the wild weather just hasn’t stopped.  Yes, we had three days in the 80s and a round of severe weather but so far, April 2018 is being remembered as a rudely cold month.  Check out this stat with regard to the number of record lows we’ve set so far this month.

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More record lows than any April since 1953.  But that’s just the morning lows.  If you add in the daytime highs, April 1983 right now is the coldest April on record.  How does 2018 stack up through the first 15 days of the month.  Take a look at this graphic!

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So through the first 15 days of the month April 2018 is just as cold as 1983.  Will we end up colder than 1983.  The next 15 days will tell. Not likely, as it looks we will have temperatures closer to normal for most of the second half of the month.

Brett’s Blog (Pattern Shows Signs of Shifting)

April 15, 2018 - Leave a Response

Spring is acting like a faulty computer program.  If you’ve seen this meme then you know what I mean!

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Look at these April snow stats, they look more like November!

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We’re only halfway through the month and we’ve already had about four times the normal snowfall for the month.  It hasn’t been this snowy in April since 1993. Heck, in that time some kids grew up, went to college and are finishing their Master’s degree next month! Ah, but I see a change coming for the second half of the month.  First take a look at the forecasted snow across the U. S. for the next 7-days!

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That’s right, nothing in Kansas City. Though Wednesday morning, near Kirksville, there could be a snow shower or two.  But here’s more good news.  The bitter cold, frigid air that has seemed to be in endless supply over the Northwest Territories of Canada is slowly eroding.  The wicked air mass is shrinking.  That means we are about to run out of strong cold fronts bringing plunging emotions along with falling temperatures.

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And the winds aloft will change direction over the next couple of weeks. Instead of predominantly coming out of the north or northwest, the Jet Stream winds swing around to the west and even southwest, tapping into warmer air.  And by next weekend could spin up a slow moving, soaker of a system that could bring almost two inches of rain to parts of Kansas and Missouri.

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And once that systems exits, the much warmer air over the southwestern U-S should shift into Kansas and Missouri.  That will seem to give Spring the much needed reboot it needs.

 

 

 

Williams’s Wrap: One More Cold Day

April 15, 2018 - Leave a Response

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A few snow showers will linger through the rest of the morning and possibly into the afternoon. Little to no accumulation is expected. Sunday will truly be a winter-like day. Highs only reach the middle 30s but a constant breeze out of the northwest will make it feel more like the teens to 20s.

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Even though Monday starts cold, and possibly with a new record low, we’ll start to warm back up with highs in the 50s and a mainly sunny sky.

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Ronelle Williams
Meteorologist (CBM) | KCTV5 News
4500 Shawnee Mission Pkwy
Fairway, KS 66205
T: 913-677-7235

Brett’s Blog (One Extreme to Another)

April 14, 2018 - Leave a Response

In Kansas City we like extremes!  I mean there aren’t many places you can go from a tornado watch one day to a snow storm at a baseball game the next!  Yep, just 24 hours ago we had about three dozen reports of large hail and damaging winds!

KCTV 2016 Severe Reports

And now just a night later, Mike Moustakas is hitting a home run in a snow squall at Kauffman stadium.  And at the Wyandotte Sporting Soccer Complex kids are playing some slushy football. Thanks to Kendra Banzet for sending in the photo!

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This snow will likely last, off and on all night, ending sometime early Sunday.  At least that’s the way it looks on Storm Track 5 Live Power Doppler!

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We will likely get less than an inch accumulation.  Not enough to shovel it but enough to tell Winter to shove it! I mean this is three weekends in a row we’ve had to put up with snow and cold.  Next weekend does look a little better.  No snow but it sure looks rainy on Saturday.

 

Williams’s Wrap: From Spring To Winter Again

April 14, 2018 - Leave a Response

***FREEZE WARNING SUNDAY 2AM TO 9AM***

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The colder air that we’ve been talking about has moved into the area and it’s not going anywhere. Saturday morning temperatures have fallen into the 30s and highs will only recover into the middle 40s. A few breaks of sun will be the best we can do for sky conditions before we completely cloud over by the afternoon.

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Late in the afternoon a chance of rain will be on the increase. As evening temperatures fall through the 30s we’ll have a chance of a mix shortly after sunset. And then a chance of light snow during the overnight and early Sunday morning.

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Any accumulation will be light and the cold will be bigger weather story on Sunday as highs sit well below freezing in the 30s. Conditions improve as we enter the new work week.

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Ronelle Williams
Meteorologist (CBM) | KCTV5 News
4500 Shawnee Mission Pkwy
Fairway, KS 66205
T: 913-677-7235

Brett’s Blog (Severe Weather Outlook Update)

April 13, 2018 - Leave a Response

Update: Kansas City metro under Tornado Watch until 9 PM.

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It still looks like it’s going to be an active weather day across the central and southern plains.  The latest outlook from the Storms Prediction Center targets two areas where tornadoes are more likely. One is over southwest Iowa and the other is over central Arkansas.

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The main threat of severe weather for eastern Kansas and western Missouri will be some large hail.  There could be hail up to hen-egg sized.  There is also a chance for isolated tornadoes.  While a tornado could spin up in any of these cells, the more likely area would be near the triple point in northeastern Kansas.

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The triple point is the area defined as the area where the low pressure area meets with the cold front, warm front and dry-line.  It’s often in this area where the winds are switching in a favorable direction that could enhance the turning in the atmosphere.

Farther south, closer to Kansas City, the cells could be more scattered in nature. That means there is a chance some of us do not get any rain at all.  Still, that doesn’t mean we should let our guard down.  If we do see thunderstorms, it will be between 5 & 8 PM and they will be fast moving cells, likely from the southwest to the northeast at around 50 mph.  So, if you do see severe weather, it won’t last long but it could pack a punch.

Severe Weather Update – Friday 10 AM

April 13, 2018 - Leave a Response

SEVERE STORM RISK TODAY:

Timeline: 3PM – 8PM from west to east across our DMA

Threats: Large Hail, Damaging Winds over 60 mph, and isolated tornadoes

Impacts: Any late afternoon and evening activities could be affected, as well as the evening commute

Tornado potential will be possible with any initial storms that fire up over eastern KS into the KC Metro, stay connected with us KCTV5 News Kansas City today.

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Brett’s Blog(Updating Friday’s Severe Weather Outlook)

April 12, 2018 - Leave a Response

The chance for severe weather across the central plains including Kansas City continues to evolve late Thursday afternoon.  The needed moisture for thunderstorms is moving it’s way north.

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We will watch this moisture closely for tomorrow. It is one of the needed ingredients for thunderstorms. Another ingredient is “Instability” Today’s instability chart paints elevated to high instability near Kansas City.

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That coincides with the Storms Prediction Center’s expansion of the Enhanced risk for severe weather to now include parts of the Kansas City metro area.

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With moisture and instability in place, all we need is something to lift the air. For instance; a cold front or low pressure area near Kansas City.  A cold front will be moving through the region late Friday afternoon and early evening.  At this time, it looks as if the front will kick off scattered thunderstorms.  The thunderstorms will arrive in KC at the end of the rush hour.  Scattered means rain & thunderstorms could miss you. That is a possibility also with this set up.

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Any one of these thunderstorms initially could contain some quarter size or even larger hail. This is also the time when a thunderstorm could spin up a brief tornado. Again the time frame for the KC metro to see thunderstorms would be 5 to 7 PM.   Once the thunderstorms move east of Kansas City around 8 PM, they would likely form into a line, then the damaging winds would become a bigger threat.

Since this is an evolving storm, now is a good time to review your severe weather action plan.  Know where to go in the event of severe weather. Do you have a safety preparedness kit loaded with the essentials and is it stored in your safe place?  Have you downloaded the Storm Track 5 Weather App or a weather radio or some kind of device that will alert you when warnings are issued.  Even if thunderstorms miss your house, you will be prepared for the next time.