Brett’s Blog (Where’s the Cold Air?)

November 22, 2017 - Leave a Response

This is November?  No-way!  Not when you look at the forecast highs the next few days.  58 Thursday…Could hit 70 on Friday. Oh wait there is a cold front arriving Saturday but it’s still 60 behind the front!  So where are all the late November shots of frigid air?

We just experienced our coldest morning of the season! This morning it dropped to 16 degrees.  Here is a list of our top 5 coldest mornings so far.

Coldest DaysIt’s been 287 days since we have been that cold and there are signs we won’t be that cold again for the rest of November.  So, again, where is the cold, frigid air.  Keep reading because I found it and I’m going to talk about when it may make it to Kansas City.  Look at the map below and look at the upper left hand corner of the map and you will see some dark purple colors…That’s the arctic air bottled up and building over Siberia!

Now look at the map again500mb_Pattern

This map shows the atmosphere about half-way to the top.  Roughly 18-20 thousand feet above sea level.  At this level an area of higher pressure is developing over Greenland.  We look for this “Atmospheric Blocking” when we’re looking for Arctic air to blast southward into the United States.  The high “blocks” the cold air from undulating through Canada’s northern territories.  Instead the frigid air is forced to move around the block.  The new path takes this arctic air mass into the United States.

So when will this happen?  This is not an overnight process.  If the “Block” holds then arctic air will continue to strengthen and likely move into the central plains sometime around December 5 – 10th.   One computer model showed the cold air continuing to build as of December 1st.

850mb_Pattern

So as we head into early December, it appears temperatures will be close to average in the central and southern plains but don’t count on making it through December without plunging into the deep freeze.  As for snowfall, it’ll be plenty cold enough for snow, we’ll just need a storm system to help bring in some moisture.

Bottom line if you wanted snow fall in November, I will say No-way.  But December is another story.

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Amble’s Ramble

November 21, 2017 - Leave a Response

Some call it the busiest travel day of the year while others argue the point. Either way it’s a big holiday on Thursday when families gather together for the biggest traditional feast of the year. Whether you’re traveling a few blocks or several hundred miles the weather for the next few days will be very nice. High pressure will clear any threat fro precipitation out of the Midwest and by Midwest I mean the entire center of the country. 

 Travel

Your travel day will be cold with a frigid start to the followed by an afternoon high barely reaching 40 degrees. The air will be very dry though so any fears of snowy or icy roads can be put to rest as the only problem drivers will face besides the other drivers will be the bright sunshine. 

 Thanks

A look ahead to thanksgiving day shows a cold and frosty morning followed by a very mild afternoon. Skies will offer abundant sunshine as the afternoon high climbs well above normal allowing Moms to kick the rowdy trouble makers out of the house during the afternoon. Travel safe everyone and have a great Thanksgiving.

Williams’s Wrap: Cooler Temperatures Return

November 21, 2017 - Leave a Response

A change of our winds this morning will keep temperatures chilly most of the day. Highs range from the 40s to the low 50s. Cloudy skies will keep things gloomy as we get the day started but as soon as we get into the afternoon sunshine will make a return. As well as breezy conditions. Gusts could reach 25 to 30 mph.

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Cooler air lingers into Wednesday with highs in the 40s and even though you’ll need a coat the whole day, you’ll also need some sunglasses with all the sun we’ll get. A nice warm up starts on Thanksgiving as we go from middle 50s on the holiday to upper 60s on Black Friday!

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Ronelle Williams
Meteorologist (CBM) | KCTV5 News
4500 Shawnee Mission Pkwy
Fairway, KS 66205
T: 913-677-7235

Williams’s Wrap: Dry Holiday Week Ahead

November 20, 2017 - Leave a Response

Monday starts with most area temperatures in the 40s. A breezy wind will keep the air mixed and although morning temperatures are cool, we’ve already seen colder mornings now that we’re deep into fall. Sunny skies and our strong south winds will lead to a mild afternoon with highs in the low 60s.

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A cold front Tuesday morning will bring more clouds into the area overnight and will drop highs into the low 50s. We’ll go from cool to cold on Wednesday with highs in the 40s. Temperatures rebound into the 50s and 60s for the remainder of the holiday week, which is also looking pretty dry.

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Ronelle Williams
Meteorologist (CBM) | KCTV5 News
4500 Shawnee Mission Pkwy
Fairway, KS 66205
T: 913-677-7235

Williams’s Wrap: Wet, Windy, and Cooler

November 18, 2017 - Leave a Response

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Early Saturday plans will require a rain jacket and umbrella. Early patchy showers bring a dreary start to the day but it will dry out by the afternoon. Morning temperatures are much cooler and have fallen into the 40s. That’s where they’ll stay as highs only rebound into the upper 40s.

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Clouds start to break around midday once the rain moves out and we’ll be able to end the day with some sunshine. Once the sun comes out, it would be best to still take it easy and save raking leaves for tomorrow. Gusty winds howl through the morning and afternoon. After a cold start slightly below freezing tomorrow morning, Sunday will actually be the better day out of the weekend. Mostly sunny skies with highs in the low/mid 50s.

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Ronelle Williams
Meteorologist (CBM) | KCTV5 News
4500 Shawnee Mission Pkwy
Fairway, KS 66205
T: 913-677-7235

Brett’s Blog (The Acorn Forecast)

November 17, 2017 - Leave a Response

Hi Kansas City.  I’ve had a lot of requests to do an “Acorn Theory” forecast for the KC area.  It’s later than I usually do the forecast but I’ve had a chance to look around at the Pin Oak trees and observe the squirrels.  So, here you go:

                                                2017-2018 Acorn Theory Forecast

Before I start, a little background as to how I came up with this theory and how it started. It started in the Autumn of 2006, back when my sons, Seth and Aaron, were little guys and loved to fill buckets with acorns from our Oak tree in Olathe.  One year we did not have a single acorn.  Not one.  That year…Kansas City had just ten inches of snow.  Then in the Fall of 2009, acorns were everywhere and KC ended up with 44 inches of snow.  I had someone tell me that Oak trees produce acorns every other year.

Acorns on Trees

BUT the very NEXT Autumn a ton of acorns appeared again and that Winter…KC got almost 37 inches of snow.  I noticed something else the Fall of 2006…the squirrels were going nuts burying acorns.

Squirrel

I planted grass seed and the blasted squirrels dug a bunch of holes in my yard.  They did it for a reason.  They were planning on the long cold Winter ahead.  You see, Nature knows how to take care of its own.  If it’s going to be cold and snowy, Oak trees produce the food source for our fury friends.  Sounds legit, right?

                                                                  THIS YEAR

I’ve scouted the area looking for a collection of acorns that would like this picture below.

Acorns

But I haven’t found many acorns.  Remember the year without acorns only produced 10 inches of snow.  But here’s the catch.  The squirrels have been hyper-active.  Maybe it’s because they are, well you know, squirrely but this activity is something I’ve never seen before.  I found several Black Walnuts on the ground.  Maybe this is the food source.  A lot of meat on these Walnuts.  So here’s what the squirrels are telling me about this year:

The Acorn Forecast

The squirrels are obviously planning to be cozied up in their nests and will need to pack on extra pounds for energy during the Winter.  The Black Walnuts are sign that a couple of bigger systems are possible.  But the lack of acorns on the ground means we could go long stretches in between snowfalls.

So there you have it.  The 2017-2018 Acorn Theory Forecast.  We will know in March whether the squirrels are onto something or if they are just plain nutty!

Brett’s Blog (Friday’s Front)

November 15, 2017 - Leave a Response

Yes, there is a cold front on the way Friday.  But before it arrives, wow what a warm up!

Regional Forecast Track Temps

With warmer air comes a return of humidity.  Yes, you might notice a more humid feel to the air Friday.  And it could cause the streets to be wet Friday morning as the more humid flows over the cold concrete and condenses into water droplets on to the streets.

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With moisture in place and a cold front lifting the more humid air mass, showers and even a thunderstorm will be possible over the state of Missouri.  The best chance of rain will come east of KC.  The Kansas side will likely stay mostly dry.

Surface 4

Cooler, drier air will race in behind the front Friday night.  It will be windy as the cooler air arrives.  The end result, Saturday & Sunday will be dominated by Fall-like air.  Enjoy today’s sunshine.

 

Williams’s Wrap: Rain Chances & Warmer Temperatures

November 14, 2017 - Leave a Response

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Get ready to switch the heavy coat for a rain jacket and umbrella. We’ll have a chance for some light drizzle through the day which will keep roads damp. Some mist and patchy fog is possible as well but the morning and afternoon/evening commute shouldn’t experience any major issues.

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The day is already off to a warm start with morning temperatures in the low 50s and we’ll reach the mid 50s by the afternoon. Widespread showers with an isolated rumble of thunder are possible late tonight but should be gone by the time the sun rises Wednesday. Our warm up continues into the middle of the work week with Wednesday highs in the upper 50s.

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Ronelle Williams
Meteorologist (CBM) | KCTV5 News
4500 Shawnee Mission Pkwy
Fairway, KS 66205
T: 913-677-7235

Williams’s Wrap: The Week Ahead

November 13, 2017 - Leave a Response

Cloudy skies stick around as we kick off the work week. A little mist or fog is possible this morning but shouldn’t impact the commute. Pesky clouds keep temperatures cool again with highs in the upper 40s.

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Some drizzle or sprinkles is possible tonight and through Tuesday. Highs gradually improve through the rest of the week, warming from the low 50s Tuesday to the low 60s Friday.

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Ronelle Williams
Meteorologist (CBM) | KCTV5 News
4500 Shawnee Mission Pkwy
Fairway, KS 66205
T: 913-677-7235

Brett’s Blog (End of Week Toupee Alert)

November 12, 2017 - Leave a Response

Gale force winds can blow in November and this week we may get a taste of “Hold on to Your Hat” weather.  Typically, once we make it to mid-November, we start talking more about snow chances than chances for thunderstorms.  But this week, a small but potent, storm will develop near Kansas City.  While most of the active weather may end up east and southeast of Missouri you will notice a more humid feel to air as temperatures warm into 60s ahead of this system.  Below is what the surface map could look like at 10:00am Friday.

Surface 3

Fuel For Thunderstorms

A surface low depicted by the “L” will be deepening as it moves across Iowa.  This system could bring 60-degree dew points (area shaded in green) as far as southern Missouri.  There is a better chance for this to happen across Oklahoma, Texas & Arkansas.  At the same time, colder & drier air will be moving in from the west and northwest.  Add to that, some vigorous winds at about 18-thousand feet and we could see some low topped thunderstorms capable of producing some damaging wind gusts some where east of Kansas City Friday afternoon or Friday evening.

But there is another component to this storm that could make for a VERY windy Friday afternoon & Friday night.  In other words, if you raked your yard this weekend, you’ll likely have to do it again next weekend!  Oh, joy!  The next map shows areas where the surface winds will easily exceed 25 mph Friday afternoon.

Surface 4

Strong winds aloft will be transferred to the surface thanks to colder, sinking air creating downward force .  These winds will fan out across the region and wind gusts could easily reach 40mph or higher at times Friday afternoon.

This all adds up to two thoughts!  Hold on to your hats and keep your rakes close.  Oh, and go out and buy more lawns bags.  I don’t own stock in a lawn bag company this is just neighborly advice.