After a string of beautiful days in the area, we’ll turn our attention to Friday which offers up a couple rounds of storms in the area. It’s the second round of storms late day that has my attention with a higher risk for severe weather “potential”. I say “potential” because a number of things need to come together to produce severe weather Friday evening. We call this a “conditional” severe weather setup. It’s not a guarantee of severe weather for any one particular area but if a number of items align properly, severe storms become likely.
Here’s the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for severe storms Friday.
Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook Friday. (Again, main severe weather window is late day)
Closer look at outlook
Upper level low back in Desert Southwest ready to move northeast. Arrives late Friday. (Strong jet stream winds aloft shown too with stream of clouds from Pacific across Texas!)
Early Friday, scattered hit or miss showers will develop as warmer air aloft is muscling into the area. Any storm Friday morning could drop some hail but widespread severe weather is not anticipated. This early day rain chance cools the atmosphere into the 40s and 50s with a deck of clouds establishing and lingering into the afternoon.
The middle of the day Friday offers up a lull where a very low end rain chance will be maintained if you work outdoors or have plans early to mid afternoon. Rain chances go up quickly by mid to late evening to finish the day and this is the prime severe weather window.
An area of low pressure with a warm front extending out east from the center of the low will track 50 to 100 miles further north than I had hoped in yesterday’s forecast. Meanwhile, a strong upper low will be racing northeast and arriving by the evening to provide additional lift and support for thunderstorms. This combination should result in widespread storms developing along the low’s path and to the northeast of the low. These storms could quickly evolve into a cluster or complex of storms producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. We would want to pay close attention to the southern extent of this cluster near the warm front for an isolated tornado potential. I just cannot rule out an isolated tornado or two unfortunately but confidence on large hail and strong wind gusts is much higher.
Of interest, do we develop storms south of the low where the air will be warmer and a bit more humid. A dryline will work south of the low to near Wichita and could be a focus for storm initiation. These storms would rapidly develop into supercells and move east-northeast toward the southern part of the area where the enhanced risk for severe storms exists.
Finally, if we verify a large complex of storms, localized flooding would be possible with a quick 1 to 2 inch burst of rainfall possible where this complex or cluster of storms track.
Storms developing near surface low back west and also down south in western Missouri ahead of warm front
Few showers or a t-storm in the morning ( low severe risk )
Cloudy afternoon with a spotty shower or sprinkle
Evening scattered storms. Higher risk for severe weather to finish the day