Teachman’s Take:

May 31, 2016 - Leave a Response

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely especially this afternoon and evening.  Some storms could be on the stronger side capable of producing hail and damaging winds.  Any thunderstorm will also be charged with heavy rainfall.  Skies will stay overcast and feel muggy in the upper 70s. 

Teach1

Overnight, temperatures will stay mild in the upper 50s and lower 60s.  Any shower and thunderstorm activity should wrap up early Wednesday morning.  Temperatures will stay near normal for the rest of the work week.  Sunshine dominates Thursday and Friday.  By this weekend, temps start to climb back into the 80s.  There is also a slim rain risk for Saturday.  Sunday looks dry. 

Take care,

Teach

 

Teachman’s Take: Random Memorial Day Shower

May 30, 2016 - Leave a Response

It will be warm and humid with a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm for your Memorial Day.  Definitely not a washout — but a better chance is expected by afternoon.  Highs will be in the middle 80s.

Teach2

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely for Tuesday.  Any leftover rains will depart the area by Wednesday morning.  After that, it looks like we’ll have a couple of beautiful and sunshiny days.  High temperatures will drop slightly into the upper 70s.  Overnight lows look quite comfortable in the middle 50s!

Next weekend, there’s a slight chance for a shower on Saturday.  Overall, it will be a beautiful weekend with highs back into the lower 80s.

Take care,

Teach

 

Suchan Says: Memorial Day Weekend

May 27, 2016 - Leave a Response
Radar

More showers and thunder moving across. No severe risk but locally heavy rain likely in any weak storm

Saturday will bring a mix of clouds and sunshine.  There is still a lingering 30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm from the morning to about mid to late afternoon (especially in northern Missouri).  By the evening, the chance of rain should decrease quite a bit.  Highs near 79.

Sunday has plenty of sunshine but there is an isolated 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm later in the evening.  High near 84.

Sunday Night into Memorial Day Monday:  A 40% chance of showers or thunderstorms from Sunday night and lingering through Monday.  There will be pockets of sun as well Monday but any outdoor plans for the day probably need a plan B just in case.  High near 80.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/

Suchan Says: Flooding Main Concern

May 26, 2016 - Leave a Response

After severe weather Thursday, attention has been shifting to the enormous amount of rain that has fallen in the area with even more tonight into Friday.  Flooding will be the dominate headline for the area the next 24 hours!

Radar

Rain continues across much of the area now.

Radar2

Squall line to the west moving east. Arrives tonight with some wind, hail but mainly additional flash flooding concerns

Rain

Daily rainfall record in Kansas City. 3.51″ is as of 10pm. Likely much higher into midnight for the official daily total too!

Friday will bring occasional showers and some thunderstorms.  The severe risk will be more isolated.  Certainly not as widespread as Thursday.  I couldn’t rule out a few storms with hail, wind gusts.  Flash flooding from downpours will be the main risk given the amount of rain that has fallen.  It won’t take much to cause very quick flooding.

Severe

Severe outlook has us in the “marginal” risk. Higher risk out to the west

Royals

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/

Hawila’s Heads-Up: Storm Update

May 26, 2016 - Leave a Response

While there is still a low threat for a few strong to severe storms this evening, the dominant headline will become the flash flooding threat. Numerous Flash Flood Warnings are in effect.

WindGustsSevere

The area has been pounded with tons of heavy rain and reports of flooding. Here’s a look at estimated rain totals. While some of these reports may be “polluted” from earlier hail, it is very logical that in excess of 3-4 inches of rain has fallen in some areas…. and more is on the way this evening.

Rain

Suchan Says: Tornado Watch In Effect

May 26, 2016 - Leave a Response

Severe

Scattered storms in the area have already produced large hail and conditions the remainder of today will start to favor all modes of severe weather potential with damaging winds increasingly possible along with a quick spin up tornado risk.  While the risk of tornadoes is highest in central Kansas, one or two tornadoes in our area cannot be ruled out given current conditions.

Also, there will be an increasing risk of flash flooding into this evening, tonight into Friday.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 1:00pm Friday.

Radar

Scattered strong to severe storms across the Plains and Midwest

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/

 

Amble’s Ramble

May 26, 2016 - Leave a Response

What a day everyone and the big storms haven’t even begun to fire. Scattered storms this morning are acting like Pogo sticks. They fire up very quickly, drop a few large hailstones then almost as quickly fade away. Here’s a look at the large hail that fell from a storm near 75th and Quivira:

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Strong thunderstorms will  make for a bumpy evening over Eastern Kansas and Northern Missouri including the Kansas City area. The storms will begin to build after 4:00 PM with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat with an isolated tornado possible especially west of the Kansas City area. This is the latest look at our risk for severe storms:

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This will be a fluid forecast with the ongoing outflow boundaries that are being formed from the current storms. Here’s a look at the RPM model which shows storms building in our area by 6:00 PM

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This hasn’t been mentioned much but flooding is also possible with heavy rain expected to fall over the next 48 hours. It’s possible that over 2 and a half additional inches could fall in the Kansas City area which will send many stream over their banks. I hope this doesn’t happen but here’s a look at the potential rainfall between now and Saturday:

Rain

Suchan Says: More Storms Tonight

May 24, 2016 - Leave a Response
Radar

Storms out west push east and into our area well after midnight

Storms in western Kansas have been intense producing tornadoes and large hail.  Over the next several hours they will congeal into more of a cluster of storms that will begin to push east.  This will change the threat to mainly hail and wind gusts rather than tornadic supercells by the time they arrive in our area.

Still, a couple storms capable of large hail and brief strong wind gusts will be possible early Wednesday.  They should weaken and move out of the area by early afternoon.  Afterwards, I will be closely watching to see if any isolated storms pop up late day.  There should be a decent cap (warmer temperatures aloft) in place preventing storms from towering through.  However, if they’re able to punch through the cap, there is a high chance of severe weather.

Plan on the highest rain / storm chance in the first half of the day then diminishing to only an isolated chance late day (if that hopefully).

ForecastTrack3

Morning showers and storms

ForecastTrack2

Afternoon, partly cloudy with only an isolated storm chance

ForecastTrack

Evening, scattered clouds with only a very low storm chance if cap builds in and holds

Severe

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/

Suchan Says: Drying Out This Evening

May 23, 2016 - Leave a Response
Rain

Narrow zone of heavy rain earlier that produced flash flooding. East of this corridor of rain, not a single drop!

The rest of the evening forecast looks good.  Area of rain in southern Missouri will stay out of the area.  Attention turns to scattered storms in Nebraska.  They’re likely to make a run at the area very late tonight into Tuesday’s morning commute.  If this scenario plays out, a couple storms could be strong with hail and wind gusts but also a localized flooding risk again.

The afternoon and evening Tuesday will have an isolated shower or storm still possible but not a washout of a day.  High near 81.

Radar

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/

Amble’s Ramble

May 23, 2016 - Leave a Response

That’s what you call a gully washer! Heavy rain has fallen over the metro with some unofficial reports near Gladstone of over 3″. The heavy rain from late this morning through 1:00 PM has prompted a Flash Flood Warning over the Metro:

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Rainfall rates have been in excess of 1″ per hour which is flat falling. the storms this morning were piggy backing each other in a formation called “Training Storms” where each thunderstorm cell follows the same path as the one prior dumping huge amounts of water in a limited area. This is the latest Doppler Radar imagery showing rainfall estimates as of 1:20 PM.

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The record rainfall on this date is a little over 2.5″. The way it’s coming down and with more to come this afternoon it’s likely we will set a rainfall record for the date: Here’s the latest radar image from about 1:30 PM which tells me there will be at least a couple hours of rain falling on an already soaked city.

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Don’t drive into standing water and please don’t go near or let your kids play near swollen streams. Se safe today and stay dry!

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