Hawila’s Heads-Up: Sunday Overview

April 25, 2015 - Leave a Response

The overcast skies will be slow to clear our, but it will remain mostly dry for the rest of this evening. If your plans take you out on the town this Saturday night, keep a jacket hand as we’ll hover in the mid 50s for much of this evening. An isolated shower or area of drizzle is possible especially south of I-70 through 6 PM, but most will remain dry.

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Sunday is the day where it all beings. I’m talking about a stretch of some seriously BEAUTIFUL weather! The day will start off with more clouds than sun, but gradual clearing will bring us a good amount of sunshine by the late afternoon and into the evening.

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Sunday will be a bit on the breezy side with ENE winds blowing in 10 to 20 MPH at times.

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Beyond Sunday lies some more great weather. Click here to check out the 7 day forecast that is sure not to disappoint! 

Hallie’s Hints: Stormy Start Saturday

April 25, 2015 - Leave a Response

Not the best way to start of the weekend, but at least it’s not going to rain all day! We have scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through our area this morning.

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This is all part of a large low pressure system as the rain showers and thunderstorms are rotating in a counter clockwise fashion. As this system moves northeast this afternoon, it will take the rain chances with it.

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We could still see additional showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon. The good news is that the severe threat is extremely low but heavy rainfall and frequent lightning can be expected. If you have outdoor plans today, you might want to have a “plan b” just in case you get caught under one of the showers or thunderstorms.

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By later this evening, rain chances will end leaving us cloudy skies and cool temperatures.

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We have a nice warming trend expected for the work week. Temperatures will return to the 70s by Thursday!

Have a GREAT weekend!

Meteorologist Hallie Shulman
Weekend Morning Meteorologist
Hallie.Shulman@KCTV5.com

Suchan Says: 11:00pm Update on Storms

April 24, 2015 - Leave a Response
Few weak thunderstorms north of Kansas City.  Larger area out west moving east

Few weak thunderstorms north of Kansas City. Larger area out west moving east

A west to east line of showers and thunderstorms have developed from northeastern Kansas into the I-35 corridor of Missouri.  These storms are fairly weak with lightning and heavy rain the main issues as they move northeast.  The larger zone of thunderstorms west of Topeka will eventually push into the viewing area but in a much weaker state.  That said, even right now they’re producing very little if any severe weather.  Just heavy rain, lightning and some small hail.

I do not expect much severe weather tonight but you should plan on occasional lightning / thunder, some heavy rain and perhaps small hail with a wind gust or two overnight.

Showers and thunderstorms moving into the area from the west after midnight.  Not much severe weather expected

Showers and thunderstorms moving into the area from the west after midnight. Not much severe weather expected

Showers and thunderstorms deep into the night

Showers and thunderstorms deep into the night

Saturday morning will start with scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms.  I do not expect morning severe weather although a couple storms could drop very small hail.  We’ll see gradual drying deeper into the afternoon with rain chances dropping off as the day progresses.

High temperatures will range from the upper 50s up north to the upper 60s down south… metro from 64 – 68.

Sunday starts cloudy with even a little drizzle possible early.  Skies turn sunny for the afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 60s.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
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Suchan Says: 8:55pm Update on Storms

April 24, 2015 - Leave a Response
Storms still out in central Kansas but moving east

Storms still out in central Kansas but moving east

The expected slower arrival of storms we discussed earlier this evening is playing out beautifully.  Other than a pop up shower or weak thunderstorm prior to 10pm that could develop, what you see on radar in this image likely won’t push into the metro until 11am to 1am.

These storms will likely be in a weakening trend upon arrival but a few strong wind gusts and some hail could not be ruled out.  Tornado risk is almost 0% or very low but I’ll be watching closely.  Overall, while a stormy night is on the way, we should be able to hold our own with these storms.  A couple warnings for wind and hail are possible but I’m not expecting widespread severe storms.

Storms slowly moving toward area

Storms slowly moving toward area

Weakening as they arrive near midnight

Weakening as they arrive near midnight

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

Suchan Says: Update on Storm Potential

April 24, 2015 - Leave a Response
Storms developing out west... eventually heading our way

Storms developing out west… eventually heading our way

As expected, storms are rapidly developing in the western half of Kansas where there’s been quite a bit more sunshine, an area of low pressure is developing and strong upper level dynamics are punching in.  These storms out west will produce quite a bit of severe weather over the next several hours.

We could see a couple of showers or a thunderstorm prior to 9:00pm but overall severe potential is highest with storms to move in well after 9:00pm.  Speaking of which…

I expect to see these storms organize into a large complex (MCS) that begins to accelerate and move east.  As they push into our area “after” 9:00pm, some severe wind gusts and hail are possible especially in eastern Kansas.  Tornado potential is very low but you can never rule out a quick spin-up on the leading edge of a complex like this.  I’ll keep an eye on that tonight here in the weather center.

Storms will be in a gradual weakening trend as they push in fortunately.  So we’ll see how much severe potential will extend east deeper into Missouri.  But plan on frequent lightning, heavy downpours, some wind and hail potential crossing midnight into tonight.

Few showers or storms mid to late evening but watching larger zone of storms well to our west

Few showers or storms mid to late evening but watching larger zone of storms well to our west

Complex of storms moving closer by 10pm

Complex of storms moving closer by 10pm

Storms moving in as we work toward and beyond midnight

Storms moving in as we work toward and beyond midnight

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl

Hallie’s Hints: 1:30 PM Friday Severe Update

April 24, 2015 - Leave a Response

We have some encouraging news to share this afternoon! Thanks to the extensive cloud cover, and rain showers this morning, our severe threat for this afternoon/evening is much lower than previously feared. We knew this was going to be a very conditional day… in other words, all of the conditions had to come together perfectly for a higher severe weather risk in our area. In fact, much of our area has been removed by SPC’s slight risk with the 11:30 am update.

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Cloud cover is already starting to erode in western and central Kansas. This will be the area to watch for storms to develop this afternoon.

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We will be watching these storms move to the northeast through the evening hours. We are expecting an 8 PM to midnight arrival time in our viewing area. Anything that develops before 8 PM will be more isolated in nature.

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As the sunsets this evening, the severe threat will be lowering quickly. It will be a stormy night for us with frequent lightning, small hail, and a few wind gusts possible.  Localized flooding could be a concern as we head into early Saturday morning.

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Stay with the StormTrack5 Weather team for the latest on the storms.

Meteorologist Hallie Shulman
Weekend Morning Meteorologist
Hallie.Shulman@KCTV5.com

Amble’s Ramble

April 24, 2015 - Leave a Response

I get this question more than any other. “What will this Summer be like?”  OK, that’s actually the second most behind what to expect this WINTER.  So, let’s have a look at the latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.

According to the latest data the western third of the United States will offer the best chance of above normal temperatures followed by an area located in the extreme southeast corner of the country.  A small sliver of the West coast actually stands a very good chance for above normal temperatures extending from Washington State through southern California.  As for Kansas City, it look like a normal Summer.

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Precipitation on the other hand will feature areas that have seen very little water over the past several decades picking up a little more than normal. The Rockies and western high plains will enjoy a wetter than normal summer according the CPC.  A close look and the boundary shows the wetter than normal line checking up just shy of Kansas City but an optimist can certainly see that Kansas City would slightly favor wet over dry.

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Here’s what I take from this:

Temperatures:  Expect 34 days of 90 degrees or warmer with two days over 100.

Precipitation:  A Normal June through August would give us 13” of rain.  This Summer I would expect 14”.

Suchan Says: Closer Look at Friday Storms and Severe Risk

April 23, 2015 - Leave a Response

After a string of beautiful days in the area, we’ll turn our attention to Friday which offers up a couple rounds of storms in the area.  It’s the second round of storms late day that has my attention with a higher risk for severe weather “potential”.  I say “potential” because a number of things need to come together to produce severe weather Friday evening.  We call this a “conditional” severe weather setup.  It’s not a guarantee of severe weather for any one particular area but if a number of items align properly, severe storms become likely.

Here’s the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for severe storms Friday.

Storm Prediction Center's severe weather outlook Friday.  (Again, main severe weather window is late day)

Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook Friday. (Again, main severe weather window is late day)

Closer look at outlook

Closer look at outlook

Upper level low back in Desert Southwest ready to move northeast.  Arrives late Friday.  (Strong jet stream winds aloft shown too with stream of clouds from Pacific across Texas!)

Upper level low back in Desert Southwest ready to move northeast. Arrives late Friday. (Strong jet stream winds aloft shown too with stream of clouds from Pacific across Texas!)

Early Friday, scattered hit or miss showers will develop as warmer air aloft is muscling into the area.  Any storm Friday morning could drop some hail but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.  This early day rain chance cools the atmosphere into the 40s and 50s with a deck of clouds establishing and lingering into the afternoon.

The middle of the day Friday offers up a lull where a very low end rain chance will be maintained if you work outdoors or have plans early to mid afternoon.  Rain chances go up quickly by mid to late evening to finish the day and this is the prime severe weather window.

An area of low pressure with a warm front extending out east from the center of the low will track 50 to 100 miles further north than I had hoped in yesterday’s forecast.  Meanwhile, a strong upper low will be racing northeast and arriving by the evening to provide additional lift and support for thunderstorms.  This combination should result in widespread storms developing along the low’s path and to the northeast of the low.  These storms could quickly evolve into a cluster or complex of storms producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.  We would want to pay close attention to the southern extent of this cluster near the warm front for an isolated tornado potential.  I just cannot rule out an isolated tornado or two unfortunately but confidence on large hail and strong wind gusts is much higher.

Of interest, do we develop storms south of the low where the air will be warmer and a bit more humid.  A dryline will work south of the low to near Wichita and could be a focus for storm initiation.  These storms would rapidly develop into supercells and move east-northeast toward the southern part of the area where the enhanced risk for severe storms exists.

Finally, if we verify a large complex of storms, localized flooding would be possible with a quick 1 to 2 inch burst of rainfall possible where this complex or cluster of storms track.

Storms developing near surface low back west and also down south in western Missouri ahead of warm front

Storms developing near surface low back west and also down south in western Missouri ahead of warm front

Few showers or a t-storm in the morning ( low severe risk )

Few showers or a t-storm in the morning ( low severe risk )

Cloudy afternoon with a spotty shower or sprinkle

Cloudy afternoon with a spotty shower or sprinkle

Evening scattered storms.  Higher risk for severe weather to finish the day

Evening scattered storms. Higher risk for severe weather to finish the day


Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
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Amble’s Ramble

April 23, 2015 - Leave a Response

Outside temperatures have been running a little cooler than normal, we all know that.  With a little chill still in the air and considering it was my turn to make dinner last night I thought I’d share an easy recipe today.  When I take to the kitchen I still have a little meteorology running through my head.  For example, I ALWAYS make chili the day of the first Winter snow. We aren’t dealing with that but I thought I’d try to match the season.  Here’s my logic.  It’s still too cool for a summer dish, but not too cold to fire up the grill.  It’s not cold enough for a heavy soup but I’d still like something warm.  Here’s the solution.  BBQ chicken!

My recipe:  Skill level – EASY!  It’s me cooking after all.

Ingredients:  Your favorite chicken parts.  I used 4 thighs & 3 bone in 1/2 breasts.  Salt & pepper. BBQ sauce, I used Bate’s City BBQ sauce last night.

Place your chicken in a baking dish.  Salt and pepper both sides to taste.  Bake at 350 degrees for about an hour.  Transfer from the oven to a preheated grill. I run the grill temperature at about 400 degrees ( medium high ).  Place the now fully cooked chicken on the grill for 3 minutes.  This will put a crunchy seal on one side of the chicken.  Turn the chicken and paint the now seared side with BBQ sauce.  Let this cook for 3 minutes sealing the other side .  Turn again and paint the newly seared side.  Turn again and you’ll notice the BBQ side has a beautiful BBQ sheen as the sugars caramelize from the heat of the grill.  One more 3 minute stint and both sides will be done.  Keep a sharp eye on this because your grill temperature may be different and it doesn’t take more than a blink of an eye to go from perfect to burnt sugar.

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Please reply with your favorite recipe.  If it’s skill level EASY, I might give it a shot!

Suchan Says: Meteor Shower and Storm Chances Ahead

April 22, 2015 - Leave a Response
Meteor shower tonight

                 Meteor shower tonight

Mostly clear skies for a chunk of the night and just a sliver of the crescent moon to compete with will make for great viewing of the Lyrid Meteor Shower.  While not the most aggressive meteor shower, this year it will produce 15 to possibly 20 per hour.

As for the forecast, Thursday is really a pretty nice day.  Starts chilly with 30s and lower 40s around the area but we should see a decent warm up into the lower to mid 60s with partly sunny skies.

Rain chances increase late Thursday night into Friday morning with some thunderstorms possible too.  Any strong storm Friday morning would be capable of dropping hail, frequent lightning and heavy rain.  The important aspect of rain Friday morning and this includes thunderstorms, temperatures will cool to the mid to upper 40s then struggle to climb the rest of the day ahead of a developing low pressure system.  The cooler we keep Friday, the better off we are in keeping severe weather in our area to a minimum.

Showers and thunderstorms likely Friday morning.  Some storms with hail

Showers and thunderstorms likely Friday morning. Some storms with hail

The middle of the day Friday is just cloudy with a sprinkle or stray shower.  Rain chances go up again Friday evening into Friday night with some strong storms possible.  But the track of this surface low is expected to be just to our south across southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri.  This keeps us on the cool side of the low and strong storm hazards would be just large hail and frequent lightning.  The risk for widespread severe weather with hail, strong winds and a tornado risk would stay south out of our region.  All this said, the forecast could change if this system tracks 100 or so miles further north.  We’ll keep you posted if there are any changes to Friday’s forecast.

Cloudy skies with sprinkles or a stray shower Friday afternoon

Cloudy skies with sprinkles or a stray shower Friday afternoon

Surface low tracking south/southwest of the area Friday evening keeping us on the cool side of the low.  Strong storms with large hail still possible in this scenario

Surface low tracking south/southwest of the area Friday evening keeping us on the cool side of the low. Strong storms with large hail still possible in this scenario

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480

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