Suchan Says: Rain Chances Return but Big Pattern Change Ahead!

May 27, 2015 - Leave a Response
Rain out to our west to move back in Thursday (scattered rain chances)

Rain out to our west to move back in Thursday (scattered rain chances)

After a very welcome rain-free day Wednesday under warm sunshine, Thursday brings the rain chance back to the area which will linger into Friday as well.

A couple of weak disturbances will move over the area Thursday and combine with a warm, humid air mass to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The chance of rain starts on the lower side early in the day and increases to 50% by the afternoon to early evening before decreasing later Thursday evening.  While I do not expect widespread severe weather, a couple isolated strong storms with hail, wind gusts and frequent lightning are possible Thursday after highs reach near 80.

Thursday Morning:  Partly to mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain early

Thursday Morning: Partly to mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain early

Thursday Midday:  Partly cloudy with a slow increase in rain chances

Thursday Midday: Partly cloudy with a slow increase in rain chances

Thursday late afternoon:  50% chance of showers and thunderstorms

Thursday late afternoon: 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms

Friday will bring a mixed bag of weather again with some sun possible along with a good scattering of showers or thunderstorms.  I expect the highest rain chance to occur later in the evening ahead of a cold front sinking south.  We have the chance of rain at 70% for this reason but much of the day’s rain chance will hover in the 40% to 50% range prior to this late day batch moving in.

Severe weather again will be very isolated to a couple of stronger storms with hail, wind gusts, lightning and heavy downpours.  Highs on Friday in the upper 70s.

Saturday looks to stay mostly cloudy with occasional light showers or drizzle into early afternoon before drying out.  It will be breezy and turning cooler with highs in the 60s to near 70.  Sunday brings a partly sunny day with low humidity and highs in the upper 60s!!

A welcome pattern change arrives Sunday through Wednesday as we see a rare string of dry days.  It appears the pattern will turn more active late next week “again”.

Recent pattern with an active storm track right over the region

Recent pattern with an active storm track right over the region

Pattern early next week with a welcome pause in rain chances

Pattern early next week with a welcome pause in rain chances

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
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Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
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Suchan Says: Update on Storms in Area

May 25, 2015 - Leave a Response
Showers and storms to the north and to the south of the KC metro

Showers and storms to the north and to the south of the KC metro

As of 8:35pm, thunderstorms in northern Missouri into northeast Kansas are showing a gradual weakening trend.  While an isolated severe weather risk remains for wind gusts or hail, it appears the overall potential for severe weather in this area is diminishing.  Still, a Severe T-Storm Watch remains in effect from Highway 36 (St. Joseph to Chilicothe) to the Iowa border.

Rain down to the south should continue to gradually spread north for the remainder of this evening into tonight.  But once again, severe potential looks isolated rather than widespread.  Pockets of heavy rain, lightning with a few wind gusts and small hail still seem possible overnight but with any storm.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
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Hawila’s Heads-Up: Strong Storm Risk Tonight

May 25, 2015 - Leave a Response

The Storm Prediction Center’s afternoon outlook places more of our viewing area under both a marginal and slight risk for severe storms this evening.

OUTLOOK

We are not anticipating widespread severe storms this evening, but a strong to severe storm or two cannot be ruled out. The severe risk locally will remain isolated in nature this evening. HRRR model has pains storm chances increasing after 7 PM this evening. Here’s a look at simulated radar from the 18Z run of HRRR at 7 PM central time. Notice a few storms showing up northwest of the metro. Like all models, this output can’t be taken “as the gospel.” We’ll have to monitor the trends this afternoon closely.

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A view of visible satellite this afternoon shows a few storms developing in southern Kansas. These storms are lifting north-northeast. We’re monitoring these as the develop, and we expect more storms to our west to start bubbling up later this afternoon and into the evening.

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Forecast Track shows the chances for showers and a few storms continuing through the end of the evening. Again, the main threat for severe storms is virtually along and west of Interstates 35 and 49.

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Any severe storms this evening have the potential to produce damaging winds, some large hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado. The tornado threat is LOW this evening, but it can’t be ruled out especially in far NE Kansas and far NW MO

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Hawila’s Heads-Up: Sunday Evening

May 24, 2015 - Leave a Response

The tornado watch in our area has been allowed to expire. Our counties are no longer at an immediate threat for severe weather this evening. A Flash Flood Watch does remain in effect for most of our area. Many area rivers and streams are very elevated from last weekend’s and this weekend’s rain. We’re still anticipating more showers to move through the metro this evening.

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If you’re heading out to Celebration at the Station tonight, make sure you pack an umbrella with you as rain is expected to return to downtown this evening. Memorial Day still looks like a mostly dry day with only an isolated shower or storm possible in the afternoon.

Hallie’s Hints: Soggy Sunday, But What About Memorial Day?

May 24, 2015 - Leave a Response

After the heavy rain pushed through last night into this morning, we’re now seeing a break in the showers and storms.

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Most locations picked up between one and two inches of rain in the last 24 hours. Here are rain totals as of 9 AM Sunday.

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Additional rounds of rain will be moving in today, which is why a FLASH FLOOD WATCH is still in place through 7 AM Monday.

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We’re watching another lobe of rain down to the south of us move in our direction. This area of heavy rain will move in around lunchtime.

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A third round of showers and storms will be possible this evening.

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Rain chances decrease overnight as we head into Monday morning.

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A lot of folks are worried about outdoor activities on Memorial Day Monday. Monday is shaping up to be a much nicer day with highs in the 70s and partly cloudy skies. An isolated shower or storm will be possible on Monday mainly during the afternoon, but it’s not going to be a washout of a day.

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Have a GREAT Sunday and a nice and relaxing Memorial Day.

Meteorologist Hallie Shulman
Weekend Morning Meteorologist
Hallie.Shulman@KCTV5.com

Hawila’s Heads-Up: Weekend Flooding Concern

May 23, 2015 - Leave a Response

A system that is very rich in moisture is bringing a lot of rain into the area this evening. Take a look at the radar picture just after 6:30 this evening.

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This system has brought major flooding to parts of Texas and Oklahoma where some areas picked up more than 6″ of rain. Locally, we are expecting quite a bit of rain to fall area wide which brings us our own risk for flooding. Heavy rain on top of saturated soils and elevated rivers and streams spells an increased risk for flooding. For that reason, the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of the area.

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Steady, and at times, heavy rain will overspread the area tonight and linger through much of Sunday. Brief breaks in the rain are certainly possible at times Sunday, but I do expect much of the day to be soggy. So, prepare to get good use out of the umbrellas! This, of course, is bad news for those flood prone areas. It’s also bad news for the Royals game Sunday against the Cardinals.

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Looking ahead to Memorial Day–> Many of you will be off Monday to observe the holiday. Good news for Memorial Day is that most of it will be dry, but there is a scattered shower and storm chance (especially later in the day.)

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Hallie’s Hints: Another Soggy Weekend

May 23, 2015 - Leave a Response

Memorial Day weekend marks the unofficial start of summer… unfortunately this Memorial Day weekend, we’ll be talking about rain… a lot of rain. If you have outdoor plans today, it’s not going to be too bad. In fact, we’ll stay cloudy with only an isolated chance of a shower or thunderstorm though the afternoon.

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Showers and thunderstorms have developed across western Kansas this morning. This area of rain will be moving in our direction through the day.

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Here is a timeline of rain and storms.

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Heavy rain could lead to flash flooding, especially for locations that have already seen large amounts of rain over the past few weeks. Here is a look at rainfall estimation through Monday morning.

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A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in place tonight through Monday morning for the threat of flash flooding. If you’ll be camping this weekend near lakes and rivers, keep this in mind.

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Have a GREAT day!

Meteorologist Hallie Shulman
Weekend Morning Meteorologist
Hallie.Shulman@KCTV5.com

Suchan Says: Planning Around Weekend Rain Chances

May 22, 2015 - Leave a Response

At this point, you are probably more than aware we have a pretty high chance of rain this Memorial Day weekend.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect Saturday night through Sunday night ahead of the weather to roll in.  A look at the latest computer modeling still suggests high rainfall rates possible Saturday night and again later Sunday with any thunderstorms in the area.  Given recent rainfall, streams – creeks – rivers in the area have very little give for additional rainfall.  Thus the Flash Flood Watch.

I know many of you are planning weekend activities outdoors or are at least hoping to.  I will tell you Monday is trending toward being the driest day with a low 20% chance of an isolated shower or storm in the forecast.  Saturday is the next best day but it does have a 60% chance of rain.  Sunday is a healthy 100% chance of rain although admittedly there may be occasional pockets in the day where it’s not raining.  But any outdoor planning Sunday must account for rain potential!

Here are some images showing the rainfall timeline.  I believe our Forecast Track model is very close to forecast expectations.

40% to 50% chance of morning showers or a rumble of thunder

40% to 50% chance of morning showers or a rumble of thunder

Saturday Afternoon... 40% chance of showers or thunder

Saturday Afternoon… 40% chance of showers or thunder

Saturday early evening....  rain chances will gradually increase in the evening into Saturday night

Saturday early evening…. rain chances will gradually increase in the evening into Saturday night

Sunday morning... widespread rain

Sunday morning… widespread rain

Sunday afternoon... cloudy with periods of rain or drizzle

Sunday afternoon… cloudy with periods of rain or drizzle

Sunday evening... showers or thunderstorms likely

Sunday evening… showers or thunderstorms likely

Memorial Day Monday... partly cloudy with only a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm

Memorial Day Monday… partly cloudy with only a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm

Flash Flood Watch in effect for the area

Flash Flood Watch in effect for the area

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl

Teachman’s Take: Storms At Times This Weekend

May 22, 2015 - Leave a Response

Clouds will be on the increase this morning. Looks like the morning should stay dry, but anytime after lunch, a shower is possible. Rainfall amounts look pretty light for today. Temperatures will be mild in the middle 60s this afternoon after a cool start near 50°.

Overnight, showers and a few rumbles are possible especially toward dawn. Lows will be cool in the middle 50s. Mostly to partly cloudy with showers and a few thunderstorms on Saturday. The chances for severe thunderstorms is low — however, any storm could produce heavy rain and lightning. The high will be warmer in the lower 70s.

By Sunday, the morning looks soggy! Heavy amounts of rain are possible and could add to the flooding problems around the region. Temps will remain warm in the lower to middle 70s.

More unsettled weather likely for Memorial Day through next Wednesday. Highs will warm even more into the lower 80s.

Teach1

Teachman’s Take: A Chance For A Little Sunshine Today

May 21, 2015 - Leave a Response

There will be areas of mist and fog this morning. Otherwise, it will become partly sunny. Temperatures will be much cooler than normal with highs in the middle 60s. Overnight, stars and a few clouds with a cool low in the upper 40s.

Mostly cloudy with a slight chance for a shower on Friday. Highs will remain cooler than the norm in the upper 60s. Skies will remain unsettled this weekend with a 50% chance for storms on Saturday and a 70% chance for storms on Sunday. There will also be a few showers and storms around for Memorial Day with highs in the upper 70s.

Next week, temperatures will rebound into the upper 70s and lower 80s. We may see a slight break from the rain on Tuesday, but storm chances go back up Wednesday and Thursday.

Teach2

Teach1

 

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