Suchan Says: Two Seasons in 7 Days!

February 11, 2016 - Leave a Response

The next several days will cycle back into more traditional deep winter cold and will culminate with a brush of Arctic cold Friday night into Saturday.  By early next week however, temperatures are ready to soar and we just might hit the 70-degree mark before next week is done!!

For now, temperatures are falling as cold northeast breezes have kicked in.  Notice temperatures to our north and northeast are significantly colder and this is our source region of air Thursday.

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Falling temperatures as northeast breezes bring in a big cool down

Skies during the day Thursday will generally run mostly cloudy but there will be some breaks of sun or even times of just filtered sunshine.  Highs struggle back to near 35.

Friday has the arctic cold front slamming through around mid to late morning.  Temperatures will reach their highest point during this stretch then tend to very slowly fall the rest of the afternoon despite some sunshine.

Friday night we’re dropping into the single digits and it will feel well below zero with the wind.  This is followed by Saturday stuck in the 20s for highs.

Sunday’s chance of a wintry mix is confined to the first half of the day.  I see some snow, sleet, freezing rain and just drizzle during this stretch early in the day.  It quickly moves east and out of the area during the afternoon as temperatures warm above freezing.  There could be some light accumulation during the first part of the day and slick spots on roads.  Nice improvements should unfold during the afternoon into the evening if you have big plans out on the town!

VDay

WarmUp

Two seasons in 7 days…. winter cold to spring warmth “Kansas City style”

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=hl

Suchan Says: Midweek Snow Chances

February 10, 2016 - Leave a Response
Satellite

Clipper system way up in North Dakota to arrive Wednesday morning

A fast moving clipper system will brush through the area Wednesday with two things, a narrow band of light to moderate snow for several hours and a wide temperature range across the viewing area.

The first snow showers push into northern Missouri between sunrise and mid-morning.  This band will most likely set up just east to northeast of the KC metro although I do expect a few snow flurries just into the metro.

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Wednesday Early Morning: Increasing clouds and cold

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Mid-Morning band of snow developing

By early afternoon, the band will be drifting east away from the KC metro into central Missouri while breaks of sun come in from the west.  This will create a large temperature range where upper 40s to even near 50 is possible in our western zones and areas in central Missouri are stuck in the 20s to lower 30s!!

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Late Morning band of snow favoring east to northeastern parts of the viewing area (sunshine in western sections)

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Snow tapering to flurries in far eastern zones by mid to late afternoon

Snowfall amounts will be strongly focused near the band of snow.  A dusting to just around 1″ of snow is possible before the clipper quickly moves away.

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Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=hl

Suchan Says: Tuesday Sun and Cold

February 9, 2016 - Leave a Response

We’ll start the day with a few scattered clouds and very cold temperatures in the teens.  Breezes will gust again over 25mph in the afternoon Tuesday but will not be nearly as strong as Monday’s wind machine.

Skies are mostly sunny through the afternoon but it will stay very cold.  Highs around 32.

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Tuesday: Mostly sunny, windy still and cold

Wednesday brings a weak clipper system through the area.  This type of system can produce a very narrow band of snow traditionally and right now our best guidance suggests this could occur in our northeastern parts of the area away from the KC metro.  If this band does set indeed develop, a quick dusting to 1/2″ of snow would be possible.  Otherwise, just some clouds and a couple flurries in the metro.

Temperatures Wednesday will range from the 20s in northeastern parts of the area to the mid 40s in southwestern sections!!

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Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of flurries or patchy snow

WarmUp

Most of the next 7 days running colder than normal

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=hl

 

Suchan Says: Winter Roars Back In

February 7, 2016 - Leave a Response
Radar

Flurries and snow showers in the area

After a day in the 40s and lower 50s, temperatures are tumbling with gusty northwest winds and now snow flurries and snow showers are moving in.

The rest of tonight into Monday will have occasional snow showers moving through.  Any snow shower passing by is capable of a quick dusting or so before moving out.  Combine snow showers with gusty winds reaching 40 – 50mph Monday, visibility in some cases could drop below a quarter mile quickly for morning driving.

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Midnight flurries and heavy snow showers

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Monday Early Morning snow squalls

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Mid-morning snow squalls

Snow showers will gradually taper to flurries late day Monday.  Temperatures will struggle to climb all day under cloudy skies reaching only the upper 20s to lower 30s for highs in the afternoon.  When you factor in the wind, it will feel like it’s 5 to 15 degrees!

The rest of the week stays cold with occasional clouds and perhaps a flurry.  I do not see any significant storminess the rest of the work week.

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Generally a dusting to 1/2″ possible. I could see a couple spots reporting a quick 1″ of snow in any heavy snow shower

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Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/

Suchan Says: Nice Super Bowl Weekend!

February 6, 2016 - Leave a Response

Early tonight there will be a slight chance of a sprinkle or a couple flurries, otherwise skies are partly cloudy overnight and temperatures drop into the mid to upper 20s.

I’ll keep my eye on the possibility of a batch of low clouds with a little fog dropping south into northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas early Saturday.  It remains to be seen if this cloudiness or fog can make it south into Kansas City.  Keep in mind, temperatures would be below freezing, so any measure of fog in the area could be freezing fog through sunrise.

By mid to late morning, sunshine dominates our skies and temperatures are warming nicely.  I expect a high near 47 in Kansas City with 50 degree readings to the south and lower 40s up north.

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Saturday Morning: Low clouds and fog possible especially up north

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Saturday Afternoon: Mostly sunny and mild

Sunday is a decent day overall but it does have some notable changes.  The day starts with a band of cloudiness moving through capable of a couple of sprinkles.  Morning temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s.

Once this band of cloudiness moves out, sunshine builds in and temperatures quickly soar to near 50 degrees!  I’m calling for a high in Kansas City of 49.  By early evening, patchy cloudiness is moving south into the area with colder temperatures.  Scattered sprinkles and a few snow flurries will be possible to finish the day.

Also Sunday, strong gusty winds will develop during the afternoon from the northwest.  I expect frequent 35mph wind gusts with a few possibly near 40mph.

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Sunday Morning: Passing clouds and a few sprinkles

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Sunday Early Afternoon: Sunshine, mild and turning windy

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Sunday Early Evening: Partly cloudy, windy with sprinkles or flurries

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Sunday Late Evening: Mostly cloudy with flurries or snow showers. Windy and turning colder

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Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=hl

Suchan Says: Weak System Friday

February 5, 2016 - Leave a Response
Satellite

Clouds increase from the west as next “weak” system approaches

Another cold night is on the way as high thin clouds arrive later tonight and winds go light to calm.  This will allow temperatures to bottom out around 20 degrees by sunrise with some patchy frost likely.

While we enjoy a little morning sunshine, skies turn cloudy later in the day as a very weak system pushes in.  As I see it now, a layer of very dry air through the lowest 5,000 – 6,000 feet of the atmosphere will likely make it difficult for rain or snow to reach the ground.  I will maintain a slight chance of a few sprinkles or flurries late day.

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Mostly clear to partly cloudy through sunrise

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Cloudy afternoon with a little filtered sun possible

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Cloudy evening with sprinkles or a few flurries

Temperatures will reach near 43 for a high but areas to the south and southeast could make a run into the upper 40s.

Saturday looks nice with some morning cloudiness or fog giving way to mild afternoon sunshine.  High near 46.

Super Bowl Sunday has a fair amount of sunshine followed by late day increasing clouds.  Highs should quickly reach 45 – 50 by early afternoon before gradually cooling late day.  A few sprinkles or evening snow flurries will be possible as colder air begins to push into the area.

Sunday will also be a very wind day with northwest winds gusting over 30mph.

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Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=hl

Suchan Says: Unseasonably Mild Returns

February 4, 2016 - Leave a Response

After a brief shot of colder temperatures Wednesday, we’re all set for another push of unseasonably mild temperatures.  However we’re not talking about 50s or 60s with this next warm up.  Instead, a steady diet of 40s are ahead of us into the upcoming weekend.

Signs are still strong on a big plunge of arctic cold temperatures arriving next week.  Temperatures will fall below normal starting Monday and likely linger below normal for much of next week before moderating into the following weekend.

WarmUp

Friday will have a weak system push by with the potential to generate a few sprinkles or stray shower later in the day.  I do not expect widespread rain with this system.

Late in the weekend into early next week, flurries or a few passing snow showers will be possible as the arctic cold punches into the area.  But I still DO NOT see any big snow potential despite having quality cold air moving back in.  Here’s a look at where we stand through February 3rd on snow totals from the past couple of winters.  If it feels lack luster thus far, you’re very correct!!  There’s still time to make up some of this snow deficit and February into the first half of March can deliver big storms.

WinterCompare

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=hl

Suchan Says: Colder, Windy and Early Flurries

February 3, 2016 - Leave a Response
Radar

Flurries and snow showers possible overnight

A reality check sets in tonight through Wednesday as gusty northwest winds behind the departing storm usher in colder than normal temperatures.  We also may start with a few early snow flurries before seeing a little afternoon sun mix in through the cloudiness.

The chance for a dusting is very spotty overnight but it cannot be ruled out.  Snow showers to our west will move east through the night and slowly weaken.  It would only take a good 10 to 15 minutes of a decent snow shower to see a light dusting on decks, sidewalks, etc.

The rest of Wednesday has stubborn cloudiness finally breaking for some sun by mid to late afternoon.  Temperatures will inch up into the lower 30s.

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Factor in the wind and it will feel like it’s in the teens to near 20 much of the day.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=hl

Suchan Says: Rain, Warm Sun and a Little Snow

February 2, 2016 - 4 Responses
Satellite

Rain with thunder heading into the area overnight and through the early commute

The headline to this blog entry says it all!  Yes indeed, we will see all three with this passing storm.

Our forecast from a week ago to today has not changed one bit!  We’ve consistently advertised a track too far north for a big Kansas City snow unless there was a shift south in the track.  Ultimately this system will indeed pass too far north keeping big snow amounts north and northwest of our viewing area.

That’s not to say we will not see some winter weather from it.  In the morning I expect far northern Missouri to see a mixed bag of rain, sleet and some wet snow before quickly coming to an end by mid to late morning.  A quick inch or so of accumulation is possible in far northern Missouri.

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Morning rain and some thunder. Wintry mix possible in far northern Missouri

Elsewhere, rain and some thunder will start the day.  No severe weather is in the forecast although a few reports of very small hail are possible.  Roads will be just wet in the morning with temperatures in the 30s to mid 40s across much of the area.

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Afternoon sun possible with warming temperatures

By mid to late morning, a strong push of dry air will sweep into the area in what we call the dry slot of the storm.  I expect to see big breaks of sunshine move in and temperatures to spike in response well into the 50s (except 30s and 40s up north).

Late in the evening, wrap around cold air and moisture will swing in behind the departing system.  A quick dusting or so of snow is possible just about anywhere as snow showers move through.

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Flurries and snow showers will move through late evening and Tuesday night

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Snow amounts Tuesday into early Wednesday morning

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=hl

Hawila’s Heads-Up: Storm Update

January 31, 2016 - 2 Responses

We’re watching the disturbance we’ve been tracking for quite sometime move onshore in California this evening. Eventually, this system moves pretty much right over the metro. As previously mentioned, this puts the metro and much of the KCTV5 viewing area in a warmer sector of the system keeping any heavy and significant accumulating snow well north of metro KC.

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That’s why you’ll find blizzard watches, winter storm watches, winter storm warnings and even blizzard warnings for counties north and west of the KCTV5 viewing area. In Missouri, Holt, Andrew, Nodaway and Atchision counties are currently under a winter storm watch. It’s this area in far northern Missouri that could see some accumulating snow before this system exits the area. The gradient of accumulating snow will be cutoff very sharp in far northern MO. As you work toward Omaha, incredible snow totals are possible. Some areas could see more than a foot!

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Our forecast has remained unchanged now for a week. Heavy snow is expected to break out as soon as tomorrow night and early Tuesday across areas to our west and north. Monday is a cloudy day and a mild day with temperatures in the middle 40s in the afternoon. Despite a passing, isolated shower or sprinkle, most of the day will remain dry until the evening and overnight when more widespread rain moves into the area.

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Overall, 1/2″ to an inch of rain is expected across most of the KCTV5 viewing area. Lighter rain totals will be found southeast of the metro with the heavier rain totals just north of the metro. We will continue to monitor any potential changes with this system, but at this time, our confidence remains high in our original forecast.

 

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