Severe storms are possible late this afternoon into the evening hours. The SPC has much of the KCTV5 viewing area within the boundaries of a Slight Risk for severe weather:
Even though strong winds and large hail will be the primary threat, dynamics favor a few isolated tornadoes too. The vertical wind shear is favorable for “spinning” storms. The model run from this morning shows the winds veering from the surface to about 20,000 feet by 180 degrees. That’s rather impressive. That means the winds at the surface are expected to blow out of the southeast this afternoon with winds at 20,000 feet blowing out of the northwest, the complete opposite direction! With each incremental rise in height the wind shifts a few degrees so at bout 10,000 feet the winds will favor the southwest. Moist air at the surface coupled with afternoon heating (which will send temperatures into the upper 80s) will make for a very buoyant environment. A small but substantial shortwave, kind of a mid level low, will work into northern Missouri this afternoon supplying the added lift to get the storms rolling.
This all sounds pretty favorable for storms but there are quite a few question marks like, where will the storms originate? Will there be a long period of isolation ( storms with space ) before clusters or line segments form? Can the atmosphere recover over central Missouri where clouds and rain held temperatures in the 70s through noon? The forecast is complex without question but as the afternoon wears on those questions will quickly be answered.
As it stands right now I would plan on strong storms developing this afternoon near or north of the Metro with most of the Metro experiencing rain between 5:00 PM and 6:00 PM. Those storms will clear the area by 7:00 PM. That time frame could be altered if the storms originate either north, south or east of the metro …all of those are still possible scenarios.
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