Amble’s Ramble

March 5, 2015 - Leave a Response

It’s not record setting but it’s another cold morning in Kansas City. Air circulating around the Arctic has kept most of the Midwest in a steady stream of cold air today being no exception. What we really need is a break in the form of an air mass shift and we’re about to get that wish. Starting Friday temperatures will warm to near normal followed by a great looking weekend which in turn will give way to even warmer air next week. This is the break we’ve been waiting for.

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The change comes from a shift in the Jet Stream which will become more zonal in the coming days meaning it will run from east to west rather than northwest or north to south or southeast. That just means our air will come from areas where it was conditioned over the Pacific rather than the Arctic.

Not only will the air begin to warm over the coming days but March is also the beginning of the wet season. A true transition month which can feature both rainy days and snowy ones. Looking ahead to the next week you can wave good-bye to snow chances for quite a while!

Suchan Says: Worst of Cold Tonight… Warm Up Coming!

March 4, 2015 - Leave a Response

After starting the day with scattered snow showers from I-70 south, skies have stayed fairly cloudy for much of the area and temperatures struggled to get back to 29 for the official high!  Normally, highs are closer to 50 degrees.  That is all about to change in the coming days but we still need to get through Thursday and Thursday night before the true warm up arrives.

Large area of winter weather just south and east of Kansas City this evening

Large area of winter weather just south and east of Kansas City this evening

Skies will clear out tonight as a large zone of snow, sleet and freezing rain gradually moves away from the area.  Temperatures will bottom out in the single digits to lower teens around the metro.  Thursday afternoon offers up wall to wall sunshine but temperatures barely make it above 30 degrees and for some, will stay in the 20s.

Wednesday's cold pattern !

Wednesday’s cold pattern !

Friday will start in the teens and lower 20s requiring winter coats once again.  By the afternoon, warmer air is surging into the area and combining with a stronger March sun angle to push highs to near 50.  Even warmer weather builds in over the weekend with mid to upper 50s Saturday and Sunday.  Next week the warmer pattern really strengthens across the region and temperatures will have a definite spring feel to them with 60s and even some lower 70s possible.

Warmer pattern next week

Warmer pattern next week

And if warmer weather is exactly what you’re hoping to hear, here’s our official countdown into our warmer season ahead.

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Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

Hallie’s Hints: Snow Moves Out… Cold Remains

March 4, 2015 - Leave a Response

As we head into the afternoon hours Wednesday, our snow chances will continue to decrease from north to south. Here is a look at radar:

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Locations south of I-70 picked up minimal amounts of snow accumulation this morning. Here are the latest snow totals:

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We are completely done with the threat for accumulating snowfall today. Mostly cloudy skies will stay with us as highs struggle to climb out of the 20s.

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Get ready for a MASSIVE warm-up as we head into the weekend. 50s expected both Saturday and Sunday afternoons!

Have a great day!

Meteorologist Hallie Shulman
Weekend Morning Meteorologist
Hallie.Shulman@KCTV5.com

Teachman’s Take: Snow Showers This Morning

March 4, 2015 - Leave a Response

Just as expected, snow showers are moving through the area this morning.  The majority of this will stay to the south of I-70.  Heaviest will be along and south of a line from Ottawa to Paola to Harrisonville and Clinton.  Anywhere from a dusting to 1” of snow is possible.  Roads may be a touch on the slick side farther south.  Any snow showers should taper by late morning.  Mostly cloudy and colder this afternoon with temps in the upper 20s for highs.

Slightly warmer on Thursday to the lower 30s.  But, the big warm-up comes as early as Friday in the lower 50s.  We’ll even have the 60s here by early next week!  Looks like a dry stretch of weather from Thursday through Wednesday of next week.

Teach2

Teach3

 

Suchan Says: More Arctic Cold & Snow Showers

March 4, 2015 - Leave a Response

Wednesday rolls in with more of the same old song and dance from weeks gone by, arctic cold.  Temperatures will be falling into the mid to upper teens through sunrise and with a gusty breeze, it will feel close to zero at times.

Satellite / radar composite... watching area of snow in Nebraska moving toward the area overnight

Satellite / radar composite… watching area of snow in Nebraska moving toward the area overnight

In addition to the surge of cold moving in, flurries or snow showers may greet many of us as we start the day Wednesday.  I’m watching a batch of snow in Nebraska that will turn sharply to the southeast tonight and likely just brush the area first thing Wednesday.

There is just a slight chance of a dusting in the metro if we can see a solid 20 or so minutes of decent steady snow.  I expect roads to be in decent shape but we’ll want to keep an eye on radar and latest trends.  Odds for a light accumulation of a dusting or so will increase the further south you are from the metro or even to the west/southwest.

By later in the afternoon, snow chances will be out of the area to the south and southeast where advisories and winter storm warnings are in effect.  High temperatures will only reach the upper 20s.

Here are some hour by hour forecast images of flurries or snow showers moving through Wednesday (especially early in the day).

Flurries or snow showers from I-70 south Wednesday early morning

Flurries or snow showers from I-70 south Wednesday early morning

Leftover flurries or snow showers in southern sections mid to late morning

Leftover flurries or snow showers in southern sections mid to late morning

Mostly cloudy late day skies

Mostly cloudy late day skies

Snowfall forecast Wednesday... light amounts "if at all"

Snowfall forecast Wednesday… light amounts “if at all”

The big warm up arrives Friday afternoon with high temperatures near 50 then climbing into the 60s to possibly near 70 next week !!

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

Teachman’s Take: Murky Morning – Mild Afternoon

March 3, 2015 - Leave a Response

Mostly cloudy with drizzle around this morning. A wintry mix is also likely closer to the MO/IA state line. Winds this morning will be out of the southwest switching to the northwest by afternoon. Drier conditions move in after lunch with a mild high of 47°.

Overnight, snow showers are possible in parts of the area. Right now it looks like the heaviest of this round will be seen in southern Missouri, especially along and south of the I-44 corridor. For the metro, up to a dusting cannot be ruled out. But, southern Missouri could see anywhere from 1″ to 3″ of snow/wintry mix.

Temps will fall into the teens overnight and stay chilly on Wednesday. We start to warm to the 30s by Thursday and eventually the 50s on Friday. The weekend looks mild and dry!

Teach1

Suchan Says: Active Stretch of Weather this Week

March 2, 2015 - Leave a Response

Before we take a look at the forecast this week, an important reminder about Tuesday.  Both Kansas and Missouri will conduct a live tornado drill at 1:30pm in preparation for the upcoming severe weather season.  This is an excellent chance to go over your severe weather safety plan in the event a tornado warning is issued for your area, make sure your weather radio has a fresh battery and is set properly and for businesses / schools to practice their tornado safety drill as we simulate an actual warning.

Live Tornado Drill Tuesday at 1:30pm

Live Tornado Drill Tuesday at 1:30pm

As for our forecast, there’s a brief window of opportunity early tonight for drizzle, light rain or very light freezing rain to occur as temperatures bottom out around 30 to 34 through midnight from north to south.  A touch of light ice glazing is possible from the metro and especially north to the Iowa border.  Fortunately, temperatures will actually rise overnight to a sunrise temperature near 36.  The morning commute will just have drizzle or light rain showers creating wet roads.

The afternoon stays fairly cloudy with a couple of late day breaks of sun possible.  There could still be a few sprinkles or a rain shower during the afternoon.  Highs are in the mid to even upper 40s with a gusty breeze.

The next arctic plunge occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday and this will coincide with a small window of opportunity for a touch of snow across the southern half of the area.  Recent data allows for a possible dusting of snow close to the metro Wednesday morning followed by a dusting to 1″ snowfall across the southern tier of the area (mainly on non-road surfaces).  The early March sun angle makes it difficult to stick to roads.  Highs during the day are only in the mid to upper 20s.

Here are a series of images showing rain and snow chances in the area.

Drizzle, light rain or patchy light freezing rain possible early tonight

Drizzle, light rain or patchy light freezing rain possible early tonight

Drizzle or light rain for most during the morning commute

Drizzle or light rain for most during the morning commute

Fairly cloudy with a few sprinkles or a rain shower during the afternoon

Fairly cloudy with a few sprinkles or a rain shower during the afternoon

Flurries or a few snow showers to start the day Wednesday

Flurries or a few snow showers to start the day Wednesday

Snow chances to the south Wednesday afternoon

Snow chances to the south Wednesday afternoon

Once we hit Friday of this week, temperatures will begin to moderate for an extended period clear into next week!  A solid dose of 50s and 60s will be heading our way in the second week of March!

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchan
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

Teachman’s Take: Rain And Warmer Temps Soon!

March 2, 2015 - Leave a Response

Morning!

It will be partly to mostly cloudy today with rain holding off until after 7 PM Monday. Highs today will be cool in the middle 30s. Moisture looks light for this evening. But, there is a small window where temps could fall below freezing from 7 PM Monday to midnight. After midnight, temps are expected to warm back above freezing. Rain showers are possible on Tuesday with temps reaching the middle 40s. It still looks like this system could produce a quick burst of snow on the end of it after 7 PM Tuesday. Accumulations look light, if any.

Temps take another dip by Wednesday to the upper 20s…overnight lows going into Thursday morning will be in the single digits. The cold moves out quickly with a return to the 50s as early as Friday (and yes, we will keep the milder temps through the weekend). After our Monday/Tuesday storm, our pattern is quiet with plenty more sunshine!

Take care,

Teach

Teach1

Suchan Says: Who’s Ready for a Warm Up ?!

March 1, 2015 - Leave a Response
Some Snow reports from recent bout of winter weather

Some Snow reports from recent bout of winter weather

Additional Reports:  Warrensburg had just under 5″ of snow while Sedalia picked up 5.5″ of snow.  Boonville, MO had 6″ of snow and in Blue Springs to Lee’s Summit, around 3″ of snowfall was reported…. in Kansas, Overland Park received close to 3″ of snow.

February 2015 finished a whopping -8.3 degrees colder than normal with an average daily temperature (average of the daily high and low) of 25.2 degrees.  But for some perspective, this wasn’t even in the top 3 of coldest February’s for Kansas City!!  The coldest was back in 1899 when the average temperature for the month was 19.4 degrees.  Second coldest was February 1978 at 19.5 degrees.  Still, it felt like one of the coldest February’s in Kansas City!!

And the month finished with a 1 to 3 inch snow for the metro while areas just south and east saw 4 to almost 7 inches of snow.

The first full week of March will have a similar look to February with another shot of arctic cold hitting the area in the middle of the week.  However, this may be the last push of arctic cold for at least 10 to 14 days as a more moderating pattern sets in.

Normal high temperatures this month climb from the lower to mid 50s by the middle of March and the long range pattern into the second week of March should bring warmer than normal temperatures into the area.  It’s entirely possible a stretch in the upper 50s to upper 60s will guide us through the second full week of March.

Here are a couple of images showing the pattern ahead including a side by side comparison of this week to two weeks from now.

GFS week to week comparison looking ahead.  More cold this week followed by a milder pattern into the middle of March

GFS week to week comparison looking ahead. More cold this week followed by a milder pattern into the middle of March

European 7 to 10 day mean pattern configuration showing moderating pattern too

European 7 to 10 day mean pattern configuration showing moderating pattern too

CPC's 8 to 14 day temperature outlook suggests well above normal temperatures ahead

CPC’s 8 to 14 day temperature outlook suggests well above normal temperatures ahead

You’ve almost made it.  Spring officially begins March 20th with the vernal equinox.  It’s not to say a few more strong cold fronts will not pay us a visit late March into April as often we will see a few more strong bouts of cold air but the worst of the cold is likely just about behind us.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

Amble’s Ramble

March 1, 2015 - Leave a Response

I’m tracking the last meaningful snow band across the area which has the potential to add an additional 1/2″ to 1″ over areas just south of the Kansas City Metro. Harrisonville, Warrensburg, Sedalia and Booneville have a chance to pick up a little more this morning before everything tapers off to just flurries this afternoon.

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Several cities have seen their biggest snow so far this season with Leeton, and Booneville boasting impressive 24 hour snow totals:

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Look for the snow to begin softening Monday when temperatures reach a little above freezing. Tuesday will be a rainy day melting most of what you have in your yard. Better get a picture quick because this snow will be gone before you know it.

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