Hawila’s Heads-Up: Busy Saturday

August 1, 2015 - Leave a Response

The weekend is upon us, and there is A LOT going on across the area today! Whether you’re going to Chief’s Training Camp in St. Joe, the Sporting KC game, or even the Kenny Chesney concert tonight at Arrowhead the weather looks to cooperate for the most part. Notice the bold? While we’re expecting a mostly sunny weekend, we do have a chance for isolated showers and storms, especially this afternoon. A washout of a weekend is NOT expected and the evening plans really do look to remain in great shape. Temperatures will stick to numbers we expect to see this time of the year.

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Forecast Track depicts that slim chance of a shower or storm this afternoon.

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Suchan Says: Closer Look at Weekend

July 31, 2015 - Leave a Response

My gosh, what happened to June and now July?!?!  Here comes August already and right on schedule, a hot and humid weekend.

Overall I think you’ll like the weekend forecast.  I will still run with a low end 20% chance of a pop up shower or t-storm Saturday but in general, am not expecting a lot of rain through the day.  There will be plenty of hot sun as highs reach to near 91 and feel 5 to 8 degrees hotter with humidity.

Sunday looks mainly dry and hot once again.  Highs near 92.  Interestingly enough, there will be thunderstorms across the Plains to Midwest but appears the most likely zone is in Nebraska into Iowa very late Saturday into Sunday morning.  It’s “possible” a shower or storm from this activity could sneak into northern Missouri in our viewing area but my expectation right now is for the bulk of this activity to stay just to our north.  Keep this in mind though if heading up into Iowa late tomorrow or eastern Nebraska for that matter.

Here are some GFS model images from tonight’s latest run showing the convective signature well late day to the north of Kansas and Missouri.

GFS deep layer lift / moisture panel.  I highlighted area of storm development

GFS deep layer lift / moisture panel. I highlighted area of storm development

GFS deep layer lift / moisture panel. I highlighted area of storm development

GFS deep layer lift / moisture panel. I highlighted area of storm development

GFS deep layer lift / moisture panel. I highlighted area of storm development

GFS deep layer lift / moisture panel. I highlighted area of storm development

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
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Amble’s Ramble

July 31, 2015 - Leave a Response

Here’s another update on my tomato garden. Earlier I blogged about how easy my garden was going to be when it came to maintenance. My weeding was supposed to be minimal and so far it has been with less than 20 minutes total pulling weeds this season. What I didn’t count on was the wet weather this season has offered. Nearly 30″ so far this growing season which means I haven’t watered the tomatoes yet this year. I can’t remember a year that was as good on the garden as this one. Here’s a look at the latest haul from the vines:

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Thirteen total with one in the sink nursing a sore spot. The one not pictured is the biggest of the bunch which is saying something. These are some of the biggest and best looking tomatoes I’ve ever grown. There are hundreds still on the vine that are still green and growing fast. It’s getting close to peak harvest season where I’ll be picking 10 to 20 ripe ones every other day for the next couple weeks.

The quality of this years crop has been sensational so far. Some years it will take 15 to 20 average size tomatoes to fill a gallon freezer bag. This year I can have the same weight with 9 to 12. That could mean an extra 5 to 8 bags of tomatoes for the freezer this season which means I’ll have plenty for chili this winter. In fact, I may have to learn to make homemade spaghetti sauce or find a few interested takers in the next few weeks.

Suchan Says: Heat with a Few Storms Ahead

July 30, 2015 - Leave a Response

The overall forecast heading into the weekend looks like typical summer heat with only isolated rain chances.  This will be a decent weekend ahead for outdoor plans.

Friday starts very comfortable in the 60s.  With ample sunshine in the forecast, temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees for much of the area.  The only rain chance Friday is confined to northern Missouri and perhaps northeastern Kansas.

There will be a weak convergence zone setting up in Nebraska, southern Iowa to northern Missouri that will likely try to form a few storms after 6pm into the evening.  Any storms in this area would then move southeast before dissipating.

The metro most likely will stay dry but the furthern north you are from Kansas City, there will be at least a 20% to near 30% chance of a late evening shower or storm that will extend into Friday night’s forecast.

Cool and sunny Friday morning

Cool and sunny Friday morning

Friday mid afternoon... hot and sunny

Friday mid afternoon… hot and sunny

Friday late afternoon to early evening... most of the area hot and sunny

Friday late afternoon to early evening… most of the area hot and sunny

Friday late evening... few storms or showers in northern sections

Friday late evening… few storms or showers in northern sections

The weekend forecast is hot and sunny with a small rain chance.  Essentially both days have a 20% chance of a shower or storm in the morning before 10am then again by late in the evening after 9:00pm.  The middle of both days will be mostly to partly sunny and hot with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl

Suchan Says: Nice Summer Forecast

July 29, 2015 - Leave a Response
11:00pm temperatures cooling into the 60s and lower 70s around the area.  Very nice night!

11:00pm temperatures cooling into the 60s and lower 70s around the area. Very nice night!

As we step into our Thursday, there are no complaints about what we’ll see across the region.  Morning temperatures are likely to cool to the mid 60s through sunrise with a few spots to the north in the lower 60s!

Skies will remain mostly clear for much of the area with the lone exception being our southern half of the viewing area where scattered clouds are likely to create partly cloudy conditions in the morning.  As for rain chances, they should stay just west and south of the viewing area as drier air from the north keeps this rain away from the region.

By the afternoon, all areas are sunny to mostly sunny with “seasonably hot” temperatures in the upper 80s.  Humidity levels will be high enough to make it feel like it’s in the lower to mid 90s but that is a bargain considering what we just went through!

Friday is another hot day with plenty of sunshine.  Highs range from the upper 80s to lower 90s.  There will be a late risk for a few storms to develop in mainly the northern half of the area.  Any storms that do develop to the north would move southeast and could sneak into the KC metro before the day is over and linger into Saturday morning.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl

Suchan Says: 12:30am Update on Storms

July 29, 2015 - Leave a Response
Stormy northern Missouri thus far

Stormy northern Missouri thus far

It has been a stormy stretch of weather in northern Missouri where storms are training across the same area producing localized flooding.  Some areas have seen upwards of 2″ to 3″ of rain already with more yet to come before the rain moves out.

These storms are “slowly” settling south with a cool front and should push into the metro very late tonight.  The severe weather risk is diminishing with locally heavy rain and frequent lightning strikes the main two hazards with these storms.  There should be a continual weakening trend on the intensity side of these t-storms into daybreak but the possibility of some wet streets for the early morning drive is certainly on the table.

The rain chance will decrease into early afternoon and tend to favor the southern part of the viewing area.  By mid to late afternoon, skies should be mostly to partly sunny with cooler temperatures in the mid 80s along with noticeably lower humidity.

Showers and thunder moving south deep into the night

Showers and thunder moving south deep into the night

Wednesday early morning... leftover showers with a rumble of thunder possible

Wednesday early morning… leftover showers with a rumble of thunder possible

Isolated rain chance late morning to early afternoon to the south

Isolated rain chance late morning to early afternoon to the south

Nice late afternoon / evening Wednesday

Nice late afternoon / evening Wednesday

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl

Suchan Says: 9:45pm Update on Evening Storms and Watch

July 28, 2015 - Leave a Response
Severe T-Storm Watch in blue shaded counties.  Does NOT include the KC metro

Severe T-Storm Watch in blue shaded counties. Does NOT include the KC metro

Storms to north.  Severe storms taking turn to the southeast heading toward Kirksville

Storms to north. Severe storms taking turn to the southeast heading toward Kirksville

 

Severe storms are in southern Iowa and beginning to gain momentum with a turn to the southeast into Missouri likely.  Damaging wind gusts will be possible as this cluster of storms moves southeast into northern and northeastern Missouri especially around Kirksville.

Additional storms are developing further west into southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri as a cold front moves southeast.  There will be an isolated strong to severe risk with these storms as well.  Keep in mind, this area is under a Severe T-Storm Watch through midnight for brief strong wind gusts and occasional hail possible.

Well after midnight as the cold front moves south across the area, additional showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the entire viewing area.  Severe weather potential with any overnight storm is very low as the atmosphere cools.

Mid evening rain chance to northwest

Mid evening rain chance to northwest

Late Evening rain chance up to north / northwest

Late Evening rain chance up to north / northwest

Overnight... cold front brings scattered showers and a few thunderstorms south across the area

Overnight… cold front brings scattered showers and a few thunderstorms south across the area

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl

Suchan Says: Blazing Hot Tuesday… Cooling Relief Ahead

July 27, 2015 - Leave a Response

Tuesday will roll in with extreme heat for the region ahead of a cold front.  Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings are in place for the area before this cold front moves in where it will feel like it’s 105 to 115 degrees.

Much of the day will run mostly to partly sunny with dry conditions.  The lone exception during the day is in northern Missouri to extreme northeastern Kansas where a stray shower or t-storm cannot be ruled out.  As we move into the evening, we’ll see chances for showers or storms increase in our northern zones especially into northwestern Missouri after 7:00pm.

The bulk of the rain chance with this approaching cold front moves south across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  A couple strong storms with hail and brief strong wind gusts will be possible but at this point, I do not expect widespread severe weather to push across.

Behind this cold front, skies turn partly sunny Wednesday afternoon and high temperatures reach the mid 80s along with much lower humidity.  In fact it’s possible we’ll see a couple mornings start in the 60s providing a welcome break from the recent hot stretch.

Here are some images highlighting the day’s sky conditions and rain chances into Tuesday night.

Tuesday Morning:  Mild and muggy start with sunny skies

Tuesday Morning: Mild and muggy start with sunny skies

Tuesday afternoon:  Mostly to partly sunny and HOT

Tuesday afternoon: Mostly to partly sunny and HOT

Tuesday Evening:  T-storm chances increasing to the north / northwest

Tuesday Evening: T-storm chances increasing to the north / northwest

Tuesday Planner

Tuesday Planner

Tuesday Night:  Shower or T-storm chances building south across the area

Tuesday Night: Shower or T-storm chances building south across the area

Wednesday Morning:  Lingering rain chance mainly to south

Wednesday Morning: Lingering rain chance mainly to south

Wednesday Afternoon:  Partly cloudy skies, warm with less humidity

Wednesday Afternoon: Partly cloudy skies, warm with less humidity

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Twitter:  @KCTV5Weather
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan/361521570703480?ref=hl

Hawila’s Heads-Up: Sunday Rain Chances & Higher Heat

July 26, 2015 - Leave a Response

Rain on the weekend? Where have we heard that one before?! Though rain chances will decrease in a big way this afternoon, we still have the chance for an isolated shower or thundershower especially south of Interstate-70. Here’s a look at your day planner. Humidity will be high and temperatures will eventually climb into the lower to middle 90s across the area. This has  prompted a heat advisory  for the area this afternoon.

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We’re tracking the rain departing our area this morning. Clouds will be slow to break, but we will eventually tap into some sunshine later this afternoon. The Royals game looks to be in great shape despite a very small chance for rain near first-pitch.

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Mid to upper 90s are on the way this week and the humidity isn’t going away. Check your 7day forecast for how hot we get!

Hawila’s Heads-Up: Severe Storm Update

July 25, 2015 - Leave a Response

A Severe Thunderstorm warning was issued for parts of the metro until 10PM. Strong storms starting developing along the I-70 corridor, west of KC shortly after 3 PM. Mostly sub-severe size hail has been reported in parts of Wyandotte and Leavenworth counties with the storm you’ll find a snapshot of below. This storm also had reports of half-dollar sized hail in De Soto, KS (Johnson County)

CKyV-OJUAAAxcd5

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We will continue to monitor the potential for strong to severe storms this evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. We also need to mention the localized flash flooding threat as these storms are dumping a lot of rain in a short period of time. We expect the severe threat to remain isolated in nature and NOT widespread.

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