Suchan Says: Friday Into Weekend

September 29, 2016 - Leave a Response

Our weather forecast remains absolutely perfect into Friday!   Another morning low just into the 40s followed by mostly sunny skies and another big warm up to 72.

The beat goes on into Saturday with the only real notable change to our sky conditions where we’ll become partly sunny.  Sunday warms into the mid 70s with again a fair amount of sun mixed with scattered clouds.

Temperatures are ready to heat up to 80 Monday and into the lower 80s Tuesday ahead of the next cold front.  This front will move across Wednesday of next week with some showers and certainly a few storms.  There appears to be enough on the table to support the risk of a couple gusty storms as well with wind gusts or small hail.  It’s early yet, so plenty of time to fine tune the details of this cold front.

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Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KMSO

Suchan Says: On a Weather Roll!

September 28, 2016 - Leave a Response

The coolest morning we have seen since mid May will start our day Thursday.  Temperatures are likely to bottom out in the 44 – 48 range across the area!  Definite need for a jacket for many but plan on shedding that jacket quickly as temperatures warm to near 70 in the afternoon.

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Friday looks equally as nice with just a few more clouds mixing with the sun.  I’ll call Friday a partly sunny day.  Highs into the lower 70s.

I’ll hedge toward partly sunny skies Saturday again but admittedly there could be stretches of the day where there are more clouds than sun (mostly cloudy).  Temperatures as a result will hold in the 60s to lower 70s given the potential to hold in a little extra cloudiness at times.

There is no rain in the forecast through the weekend.  That chance will not return until the middle of next week when a cold front pushes into the area Tuesday night through Wednesday.

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Friday

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

 

Suchan Says: Refreshing Cool Down

September 27, 2016 - Leave a Response

Tuesday brought a briefly warmer afternoon to the area with upper 70s to lower 80s under sunny skies.  Wednesday will take a step back on the temperatures as a reinforcing shot of cooler temperatures courtesy of a backdoor cold front slides by around sunrise.

This is a direct result of the swirling area of low pressure over the Great Lakes dropping to the south over the Ohio River Valley for the next few days.  It will bring this surge of autumn cool, Canadian air with it.  Despite full sunshine and only a few widely scattered cumulus clouds possibly in the mix, temperatures will likely stay in the 60s for most areas.

Wednesday night will drop into the mid 40s for a true autumn chill to the air!

Thursday and Friday look amazing with lower 70s, low humidity and plenty of sun to enjoy.  This is no doubt one amazing week of weather for our area!

Keep in mind, if you’re heading east of the Mississippi over the coming days, you better plan on considerable cloudiness and a daily rain chance.  It will be a very unsettled stretch of days for the eastern half of the country with this cutoff swirling area of low pressure.

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Wednesday

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Thursday

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Friday

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Suchan Says: Welcome to Fall !

September 26, 2016 - Leave a Response

Finally, a long glorious stretch of autumn weather to enjoy into early October.  The weekend cold front has long since cleared the area and in its wake is pure autumn cool, dry conditions that will prevail into your next weekend.

You can bank on cool to chilly nights with afternoons warming nicely into the 60s and 70s.

There’s actually a second “back door” cold front ready to push in Wednesday morning from the north to northeast.  This is not the traditional direction for a cold front.  Thus the term “back door” used to describe the type of cold front as it comes in.  Regardless, it will reinforce our cool, crisp conditions this week after a brief Tuesday warm up into the mid to even upper 70s.

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Tuesday

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Wednesday

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Thursday

The next chance for showers or a thunderstorm does not appear in our forecast until perhaps late Monday to Tuesday of next week.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Suchan Says: Strong Weekend Cold Front

September 23, 2016 - Leave a Response

It’s all systems go for our cold front to push through this weekend.  There are really few changes to the going forecast over recent days.  Timing still looks to be Saturday night into Sunday midday with frontal passage.

Ahead of the front Saturday, partly sunny skies with yet more 80s and high humidity in place.  I can’t rule out a spotty pop up shower or weak storm during the afternoon.  However it clearly appears the favored window for showers and storms will wait until the evening to develop and spread in from the west.  So if you’re planning on going out Saturday evening or later on Saturday night, take an umbrella.

The atmosphere will be unstable and there’s a small amount of wind shear in place.  There are quite a few other indices that are just unimpressive to me for widespread severe storms.

Given this, there could certainly be an isolated gusty storm or two with brief wind gusts and small hail.  Torrential rain and lightning with any storm we see.

Rain should linger into Sunday morning and most likely becoming a more patchy light to moderate rain versus thunderstorms.  This rain should push into the early afternoon then steadily taper off and move southeast out of the region.

The Chiefs will benefit greatly having a late afternoon kickoff compared to normal.  If you’re tailgating well ahead of the game, you need to plan on some risk of rain to be sure.

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Saturday Morning

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Saturday Afternoon: Isolated shower or storm possible with partly sunny skies

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Saturday Evening: Chances for showers or thunderstorms will be increasing from west to east

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Sunday Late Morning: Cloudy with patchy rain or drizzle

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KICKOFF for Chiefs…. cloudy with sprinkles, drizzle or a shower. But rain is starting to move away!

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Updated forecast as of 11:45pm Friday

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Teachman’s Take: Big Weekend Changes

September 23, 2016 - Leave a Response

The morning will start off on a cool and comfortable note. Even though fall has officially arrived, temperatures will remain warm this afternoon.  As sunshine dominates, highs will reach into the upper 80s with heat indices in the lower 90s.

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A big pattern change is on the way for the weekend.  Clouds will start to gather on Saturday.  An isolated shower or storm is possible Saturday afternoon with a greater chance for rain by evening.  Showers and thunderstorms will continue into parts of Sunday.  Highs next week will drop into the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Even the overnight temps look cool in the 40s and 50s!  Sunshine and dry conditions look to persist from Monday through Friday of next week.

Take care,

Teach

Suchan Says: Closer Look at the Weekend

September 23, 2016 - Leave a Response

Friday is another easy, breezy forecast of hot sunshine.  Highs will yet again reach the upper 80s to around 90 in spots.

The much advertised cold front is set to roll in this weekend with the promise of sweeping changes to our weather.  Saturday looks every bit the part of what we’ve seen already this week with very warm temperatures and high humidity.  Skies are partly sunny for a chunk of the day but with time, we will see showers or thunderstorms pop up in the area or move into the viewing area from our west.

The highest rain chance is still later in the afternoon to evening Saturday and peaks Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Latest trends have patches of light rain lingering through midday then slowly moving east to southeast and out of the area Sunday late afternoon to early evening.  Forecast Track’s most recent update looks about perfect and I’ll share some images to give you an idea of weekend expectations!

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Saturday Morning: Partly Sunny w/ slight rain chance

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Saturday Early Afternoon: Partly sunny with a few showers or a thunderstorm

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Saturday Evening: Chance of rain increasing

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Sunday Morning: Patchy rain and cloudy

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Sunday Noon: Patchy rain

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Sunday Early Evening: Decreasing rain chances with a few breaks of sun trying to move in

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Teachman’s Take: Warm And Humid

September 22, 2016 - Leave a Response

There’s a slight chance for a shower or storm in far NW MO/NE KS through early afternoon.  Otherwise, expect a mixture of sun and clouds.  Highs will be in the upper 80s once again as Fall begins.  With the humidity, it will feel like the middle 90s.

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Temperatures will remain warm and humid through Saturday.  Highs will be in the middle to upper 80s.  A strong storm system is still expected to arrive late Saturday into Sunday.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely during this time.  Sunday could be a washout of a day.  Highs next week will drop into the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Even the overnight temps look cool in the 40s and 50s!  Showers will remain in the forecast Monday through Wednesday as more fall-like temperatures settle in for a visit.

Take care,

Teach

Suchan Says: Big Weekend Changes

September 21, 2016 - Leave a Response

The first day of Autumn is Thursday officially at 9:21am.  But you will not notice a change with our weather.  The arrival of autumn cool weather will wait until the back half of the weekend to arrive.

In the meantime, you can plan on enjoying bonus summer weather in the 80s for the next few days.  Thursday has a slight rain chance in far northern Missouri especially into Iowa in closer proximity to a frontal boundary.  Otherwise partly sunny skies dominate across the area.

Friday brings mostly sunny skies with a south breeze and highs well into the 80s to possibly 90 in spots.

Saturday will be the last day in the 80s of this stretch and a chunk of the day should be fairly dry.  However the chance of showers or a thunderstorm will increase deeper into the day as a cold front slowly approaches.  The chance of rain spikes up Saturday night through at least half of Sunday before only slowly decreasing late day Sunday.

The big question I have right now is how to handle the speed of the cold front and upper trough driving it through our area.  As is typically the case this far out, computer models are having a difficult time handling the details of where the upper trough will ultimately close off and position itself.  This is significant in terms of whether we truly get into a dry slot behind the cold front or are stuck with periods of rain into the first half of next week.

I’m keeping a low end 20% rain chance in the forecast next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday to respect a slower solution.  Plus, just the upper low alone can produce instability showers given cold temperatures aloft with breaks of sun.  In fact, a random low topper thunderstorm is notorious for developing under just this kind of upper low.

Bottomline, get set for rain ahead and an impressive temperature swing.  Here are a few charts captioned with what I see.

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Upper trough approaching Saturday night into Sunday morning with cold front

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GFS model showing good plume of moisture and vertical rising motion (lift) along cold front for showers or thunderstorms

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GFS model showing strongest axis of “lift” with deep red shading in our eastern half of the area. This would likely result in band of moderate to heavy rain with lingering light rain behind it.

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GFS model showing best axis of moisture and lift working east of the region for “possible” slot of drier conditions building in. *** Caution on this as other models are not as quick to follow this timeline but it’s worth noting from the GFS

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Impressive cool down from the hot 80s and 90s to the 60s to near 70 early next week!!

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Teachman’s Take: Another Hot One!

September 21, 2016 - Leave a Response

Summer-like temperatures continue! Today will be another toasty one with temperatures in the upper 80s.  With the humidity factored in, it will feel as hot as the upper 90s.  Sunshine will continue to dominate.  Winds will remain light from the south at 5 to 10 MPH.

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There’s a slight chance for a morning shower or storm in far NW MO/NE KS Thursday morning.  Temperatures will remain steamy through Saturday.  Highs will be in the middle to upper 80s.  A strong storm system arrives late Saturday into Sunday.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely.  Highs next week will drop into the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Even the overnight temps look cool in the 40s and 50s! 

Take care,

Teach