Hawila’s Heads-Up: Monday Monday

May 1, 2016 - Leave a Response

We have to get through one more cool, cloudy day before the payoff in the middle and end of the workweek. Monday also brings another chance for a sprinkle or shower across the area. This is not a widespread or heavy rain chance we have in store. Forecast Track does a good job of showing the higher chance for a shower or two in the afternoon hours.

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The morning commute looks to be smooth sailing, just chilly! Lows are expected in the middle 40s by daybreak.

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Much warmer air and sunshine make a return by the middle of the week. We have a fantastic stretch of 70s and sunshine headed this way!

Suchan Says: Weekend Forecast

April 29, 2016 - Leave a Response

Radar

Showers and thunderstorms will continue straight through the night into Saturday morning.  There is no severe weather risk despite hearing some thunder in the area.

Saturday will not be a washout.  Sure, the chance of rain starts on the higher side in the morning but it will lower quite a bit by the afternoon to just an isolated chance (mainly northern sections).  In fact, I do expect to see areas of sun pop out with particular emphasis on the southern half of the area.   Another wide range in temperatures as a result with lower to mid 60s up north to the lower to mid 70s down south.

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Sunday turns much cooler, cloudy with times of drizzle or a few light showers.  Temperatures will be stuck in the 50s with a very cool breeze from the north to northeast.  Cloudiness lingers into most of Monday before finally clearing out of the area Tuesday into Wednesday of next week with warmer temperatures to follow!

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Cloudy morning with patchy rain to start

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Midday Saturday… still a few showers in the area

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Saturday Afternoon: Much drier with areas of sunshine. Only an isolated rain chance

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Sunday: Cloudy, cooler with drizzle or light rain showers

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/

 

Suchan Says: Next Chance of Rain

April 28, 2016 - Leave a Response

Thursday was such a welcome break from recent rain.  Unfortunately the true dry stretch of days in the forecast will not arrive until next week.  So Friday rolls in and so does the next chance of rain.

Radar

Rain moving into central and southern Kansas

Already to the southwest we can see the leading edge of rain in Friday’s forecast trying to move to the northeast.  Much of this rain will struggle to push in Friday morning but a shower or sprinkles will be possible especially in the western third of our viewing area.

By the afternoon, a gradual increase in the chance for showers or a rumble of thunder will move in.  This continues into Friday evening.  The chance of rain will increase to 40% to cover this period.  Temperatures will reach into the mid 60s.

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Friday Morning: Only a slight rain chance and mainly our western counties

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Friday Early Afternoon: Mostly cloudy with a increasing chance of showers or a weak rumble of thunder

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Friday Late Afternoon: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain

Friday night and Saturday morning will see the chance of rain and thunder increase to 70%.  I do not expect severe storms although very small hail is possible in any storm along with locally heavy rain.

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Friday Night – Saturday Early Morning: High chance of showers or thunderstorms

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Saturday Late Afternoon: Variably cloudy with a 30% chance of showers or T-storms

Saturday is NOT a washout!  Yes it starts with a high rain chance but a slot of drier air will punch in for the afternoon decreasing the chance of rain to 30% later in the day.  Highs in the 60s to near 70 (lower to mid 70s likely in our southern counties).  There will also be a risk for a stronger storm or two in the southern part of the viewing area where instability levels will be higher in the warmer, muggy air.

Sunday is a fairly cloudy day with light rain or drizzle from the morning to at least mid-afternoon before drying out.  Temperatures will be much cooler in the upper 50s as well.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/?ref=settings

 

 

Suchan Says: Brief Break from Rain

April 27, 2016 - Leave a Response

After two days worth of thunderstorms, Thursday offers the area a needed break of calm and drier conditions.

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WarmUp

Warmer than average month so far and now well above normal rainfall!

The morning starts in the mid 40s and through the afternoon climbs into the mid to upper 60s with a mix of clouds and sun.  Any rain chance is confined to southern Iowa near the weakening area of low pressure that has been responsible for this week’s storminess.

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Thursday Morning

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Thursday Afternoon

Friday brings back moisture with a few showers or a thunderstorm possible.  The chance of rain will run around 40% Friday with highs in the mid 60s.  The chance of severe storms is very much on the lower side as forecast instability levels are very weak despite a fair amount of wind shear.

Saturday has a solid 70% chance of showers or thunderstorms and also a bit higher risk of strong to severe storms in my estimation especially in southern parts of the area.  However, if temperatures run a bit cooler than currently forecast that would keep the potential for severe storms to the south out of the area which remains a possibility.

Severe

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/

 

Hawila’s Heads-Up: Storm Update

April 27, 2016 - One Response

We received an astronomical amount of rain this evening. KCI was pushing 4″ of rain before midnight which shattered the daily rainfall record of 1.85″ from 2009. No surprise there were numerous reports of water rescues taking place in and around the metro.

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The severe threat is largely winding down this evening and we will continue to be concerned over a flooding threat overnight tonight as showers and storms continue through daybreak.

Radar

Another round of showers and storms are expected Wednesday. There’s even a slight risk for a severe storm especially in northern Missouri. Hail would be the primary hazard in any strong thunderstorms. The rain will not be nearly widespread Wednesday as it was Tuesday.

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Amble’s Ramble

April 26, 2016 - Leave a Response

Today has already been an active weather day with many reports of strong winds and large hail coming in from many areas around the Metro with the most numerous reports coming from areas north of I-70. The second round of storms arrive in the Metro just after sunset so gather up your family before this next line of intense storms arrive.

Areas Of Greatest Risk:

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The timing:

Storms will fire up over central Kansas during the middle of the afternoon impacting areas from around Salina south through Wichita. The storms will have a degree of separation meaning that super-cell thunderstorms will be likely offering the greatest threat for tornadoes between 3:00 PM and 7:00 PM. The storms will approach Topeka by the 7:00 hour and should be forming more linear storms at that time. The storms will be in a solid line by 8:00 PM when the line reaches Lawrence and Ottawa. At this time the threat will be in the form of damaging winds and large hail.  By 9:00 PM that line will reach the Kansas City Metro area. While it’s still possible that an isolated tornado could be produced it’s far more likely that the storms will hit us with strong straight line winds and large hail. There is enough potential energy for the storms to drop hail in excess of 2″. That’s at least as large as the hail that fell this morning.

There’s quite a bit of time between now and when the storms arrive this evening but you should take some time now to tidy up around your house. Make some room to put your car in the garage and you might think about bringing your patio furniture inside for the night and anything else that could blow away when the storms arrive. You should also have a conversation with your family so everyone is gathered up and indoors well before the storms arrive. Stay safe and have a great day everyone.

Hawila’s Heads-Up: Tuesday Storms

April 25, 2016 - Leave a Response

First of all, it needs to be emphasized, the biggest threat for widespread severe storms looks to be just west of the metro. The severe weather outlook below shows those most at risk. Already, you’ll find a moderate risk for severe storms Tuesday in southern NE, down through central KS and into the OK and TX border. This is the zone where giant hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are most likely.

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This is not “hype.” It’s science. It’s a forecast. I’m not sure why that term gets tossed around so much during severe weather risk days. We should always be very thankful when we dodge damaging storms in setups like tomorrow. I’ll mention it again, the biggest risk for severe weather is west of our area.

Our first chance of showers and storms arrives early Tuesday morning. Overnight, an amplified low level jet will intersect a boundary currently situated just south of the metro. This could serve for the focus for some rain for the Tuesday morning commute. Can’t rule out a hail report either.

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Tuesday is NOT expected to be an all day rain event. I expect many dry hours in the afternoon before rain chance ramps up again in the evening. That’s when our severe risk rolls in, too.

Radar

As I mentioned before, the most significant risk for severe storms Tuesday night falls west of our area. With that being said…. we still have to track the potential for all hazards tomorrow evening. I really believe shear in our area is lackluster for a robust tornado threat which is fantastic news. BUT, there still exists the chance for an isolated tornado report or two. Biggest risk I see with wildly unstable air in place, would be large hail reports. Second to that would be a few damaging wind reports.

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Hawila’s Heads-Up: Sunday Storm Chances

April 23, 2016 - Leave a Response

What a stellar way to kick off the weekend! Sunshine and high temperatures that approached 80° this afternoon made it a near perfect day for many.

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We’re monitoring the approach of an upper trough that skims by to the north. This brings in the risk for a few showers and storms late Sunday and as cold front sweeps by. Some of these could be on the strong to severe side with large hail and damaging winds being the concern. The best chance to see a storm with large hail and damaging winds would be west and north of the metro. It needs to be said, the overall severe threat Sunday evening does look low locally. Rain chances increase later in the day. Radar

A better chance for severe storms arrives late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Still a lot of questions to be answered with this upcoming system, but admittedly, the highest risk for severe storms at this time looks to be south of the metro. We will continue to monitor this as we get closer to the day.

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Suchan Says: Weekend Forecast

April 22, 2016 - Leave a Response

Overall this is a nice weekend!  Only two blemishes I see, a gusty wind developing Sunday and the risk for a few evening showers or thunderstorms Sunday before the weekend comes to an end.

Saturday is mostly sunny to completely sunny, breezy and much warmer.  Highs from 76 – 80 across the area.  Breezes from the south 10 – 20 by the afternoon.

Sunday looks dry for much of the day.  Skies will turn partly sunny and as an upper low swirls into Nebraska and South Dakota, it will drag a dry line into the eastern half of Kansas by late afternoon to early evening.  A dry line is sort of like a cold front except lacking a nice thermal gradient.  Naturally, it’s more of a reflection of a gradient in dew point temperatures (muggy factor).  But this feature is important as coupled with a glancing blow from the upper low, it will trigger a few storms.

I see enough instability and wind shear in place to warrant an isolated risk of severe storms with hail and brief strong wind gusts.

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Sunday Morning

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Sunday Afternoon

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Sunday Evening (7pm)

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Sunday Late Evening

We will continue to monitor the middle of next week for a more widespread severe weather risk.  Specifically looking at Tuesday night into the first half of Wednesday as a strong area of low pressure develops in the middle of the country.  It’s too early for specifics on where and what.  As the system of interest gets closer to the west coast, we will be able to better sample the system and improve computer modeling.

We’ll keep you posted.  In the meantime, enjoy the weekend!!

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/

Suchan Says: Look to the Weekend!

April 21, 2016 - Leave a Response

After an unsettled week of weather with multiple rounds of showers and just a little thunder, Friday into Saturday look outstanding!

Friday starts with a chill in the air as most areas will dip into the mid to upper 40s.  There will be some scattered clouds in the morning to early afternoon with areas of sun but by late afternoon heading into the evening, mostly sunny skies will be the rule.  Highs around 70!

Saturday just looks great.  I think the only complaint will be a pesky south breeze gusting over 20mph in the afternoon and evening.  Otherwise sunshine dominates and temperatures warm to 75 – 80 around the area.

Sunday will start with an isolated chance of showers or thunder early in the day in northeastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri.  Skies then trend partly sunny for the middle of the day followed by late day redeveloping showers or thunderstorms as a cold front moves in.  I wouldn’t rule out a strong to severe storm if enough instability can develop producing hail and brief wind gusts.

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Friday

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Saturday

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Sunday Morning

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Sunday Afternoon

Radar

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We’ll be watching the middle of next week closely as some potential is there for strong to severe storms as a large trough ejects into the middle of the country.  Timing, position of this large upper trough and associated surface low will be key as to the intensity of the storms and where they fire.  We’ll watch and fine tune as needed!

Severe

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/Chief-Meteorologist-Chris-Suchan-361521570703480/

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