Suchan Says: Wonderful Stretch of Weather… Changes Down the Road September 26, 2014

The unseasonably warm pattern that has built into place will remain firmly in control of our weather straight through the weekend and into early next week.  The only rain chance and isolated at best over the next day or so is in northern parts of the viewing area and into Nebraska – Iowa where a weak upper low is swirling about.  Otherwise plan on a good amount of sunshine with a daily dose of some scattered fair weather clouds.

Morning lows will dip to the upper 50s to lower 60s over the next several mornings with afternoon temperatures from about 80 – 82!

The first chance of showers or storms as we enter a gradual pattern change next week occurs later in the day Tuesday.  Much of Tuesday is partly sunny and warm but we should see a few showers or storms try to move in late day.

A large trough pushing into the Rockies with subsequent surface low development in the lee of the Rockies unfolds Wednesday through Thursday.  During these two days, we’ll see scattered showers and thunderstorms with temperatures generally in the 70s (possibly near 80 Wednesday).  As the surface low moves by later Thursday, a big push of cooler air works in Friday where highs are likely stuck in the 60s!

Here are a few computer model panels highlighting the upcoming pattern change next week.

300mb jet stream winds. Easy to identify emerging trough (U-shape) in the upper level flow pattern

500mb heights and vorticity. Big trough takes hold across the Plains and Midwest inducing a good bit of unsettled weather and aids in surface low development to our west

Surface low developing with large scale ascent for showers and storms increasing around it

Surface low passes by Thursday with showers and thunderstorms

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan

Teachman’s Take: Here Comes the Weekend Warmth September 26, 2014

The showers we’ve had in a few spots this AM are just about history now.  Therefore, expect partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies today. Highs will be cool to start in the lower 60s and comfy in the afternoon in the lower 80s.

Overnight, mostly clear and cool. Lows will be near 60°.

And we’ll have much more of the same through the weekend…cool starts and warm finishes. Lows near 60° and highs near 80°.

Changes move in next Tuesday with a chance for showers late in the day. More rounds of rain Wednesday into Thursday. Highs will drop from the 80s to the lower 70s by Friday.

Take care,

Teach

Suchan Says: Weekend Inching Closer and Forecast Looks Great September 26, 2014

We’re in the midst of a fantastic stretch of weather for all outdoor plans!  There is one very small wrinkle in the forecast Friday but at this point, I don’t think it’s a terribly big deal.  There are some late indications from recent computer modeling of an isolated pop up shower Friday in mainly the northern part of our viewing area.

NAM computer model image at 500mb. Can easily see swirling upper level low over the region Friday

An upper level low is swirling over the area and this typically results in widespread shower or thunderstorm possibilities.  This particular upper low has marginal moisture in place to work with and will be reduced to only an isolated 20% chance of sprinkles or a couple rain showers in northern Missouri.

Forecast clouds and radar Friday morning… 20% chance of a sprinkle or shower in northern parts of the area

Forecast clouds and radar Friday afternoon

Forecast clouds and radar Friday late day… 20% chance sprinkle or shower up to the north

Temperatures Friday will range from the upper 70s to the lower to mid 80s.  If your area has a bit more patchy cloudiness mixing with the sun, you’ll likely hover in the 70s to near 80.

The weekend looks amazing with both days offering up dry weather and plenty of warm sunshine!  Chances to the overall pattern slowly unfold later next week with storms back in the forecast along with an eventual cool down in the long range outlook next week into next weekend.

Chris Suchan
Chief Meteorologist
KCTV5/KSMO

Twitter:  @ChrisSuchanKCTV
Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/chris.suchan